Hi Everyone,
Governments of Western countries are collecting more tax and accumulating more debt than ever before. Figure 1 contains the countries that have the highest tax revenue as a percentage of GDP. Almost all these countries are from Europe, and almost all have increased the percentage of tax revenue as a percentage of the country’s GDP.
Figure 1: Tax Revenue as Percentage of GDP
Source: Our World in Data
The sharpest growth has been in Government debt. The combined increase in debt of European Union countries has increased threefold from 2000 to 2025 ($5.91T to $17.6T). US Government debt has increased even more sharply from $4.9T to $38.3T in the same period. China’s Government debt has also soared in the past decade as well (not the focus of this post). Figure 2 contains the explosion in Government debt this century.
Figure 2: Government Debt Trends
Source: Visual Capitalist
Governments spend the increased tax revenue and borrowing. As both have increased, so has Government expenditure. All the biggest spenders per capita are Western countries. Every top-spending Western country has more than doubled Government expenditure per capita in less than two decades. See Figure 3 for countries with the highest Government expenditure per capita.
Figure 3: Government Expenditure per Capita
Source: Our World in Data
This expenditure is spread over a number of different areas, such as social protection, health, education, defence, housing, and environmental protection. See Figure 4 for a breakdown of this expenditure.
Figure 4: Breakdown of Government Expenditure
Source: Our World in Data
Almost half of Government expenditure for Western countries is spent on procurement. Figure 5 expresses Government expenditure on procurement as a percentage of GDP. Most of this procurement expenditure is paid to large businesses. In the US, 75% of procurement expenditure is paid to large businesses (Brookings).
Figure 5: Government Procurement Expenditure as Percentage of GDP
Source: Our World in Data
Western countries spend a lower percentage of Government expenditure on employees than most other countries. This share of expenditure is gradually decreasing for many countries. See Figure 6 for percentage of Government expenditure by World Bank regions and Figure 7 for countries that spend the least.
Figure 6: Government Expenditure on Employees by Region
Figure 7: Government Expenditure on Employees by Country
Source: Our World in Data
Western Governments have gradually moved towards outsourcing to acquire goods and services from the private sector. They have become less reliant on publicly owned companies, Government departments, and Government employees. I would argue that this is a method of controlling demand (high Government expenditure) as well as transferring wealth to large businesses (high expenditure on procurement). I discuss this in detail in my 2022 post, The Masters of Production.
The focus of this post is to consider what this extremely high level of Government expenditure is actually achieving for these countries and how it has improved various areas. These areas include health, education, housing, crime, infrastructure (e.g., transport and roads), defence, energy, and water.
Social Protection
Social protection, which includes payments for sickness, disability, pensions, housing, unemployment, and family and children, makes up the largest proportion of Government expenditure for most Western countries. These payments are intended for people and families that lack sufficient means to financially support themselves. For most countries, this share of government expenditure has steadily increased. This implies a substantial increase in nominal value since, Government expenditure as a whole is increasing for most Western countries. Figure 8 contains the social protection expenditure for all 37 listed countries.
Figure 8: Government Expenditure on Social Protection
Source: Our World in Data
Greater dependency on Government support is a concerning trend. Western countries have an ageing population. To a certain extent, this would account for some increase in expenditure. However, many European countries have maintained a high workforce participation rate, with older people staying in or returning to employment (Eurofound). Unemployment rates have considerably decreased since the financial crisis of 2007 and even the start of the millennium (Our World in Data). This should put less pressure on social payment expenditure.
Possibly the area of greatest concern is the rise in social protection payments for children. In the UK, disability benefit claims for children have more than doubled since 2020 and are expected to triple by 2030 (GB News). Figure 9 contains the increase in child disability claimants from 2018 to 2024.
Figure 9: Trends in Child Disability Claimants in the UK
Source: Telegraph
The sharp rise in disability claims has been because of the sharp increase in ADHD and autism diagnoses. The rise in autism diagnoses in children is the most concerning. In the UK, the number of autism diagnoses has increased almost eight times between 1998 and 2018. See Figure 10 below for this consistent year-on-year increase.
Figure 10: Trends in Autism Diagnosis of Children (1998 Baseline of 100)
Source: BBC
According to the (SGT Report), the surge in autism diagnoses has continued from 2019 to 2024. In 2023-2024, roughly one in five children between the ages of three and seventeen were diagnosed with at least one developmental disability. There has been little to no official investigation into these rapid increases. Instead, increased awareness and recognition are being used as an excuse (Neurodivergent Insights). This excuse is not consistent with reality. There would also be an equivalent surge in the number of adults diagnosed with autism, which has not been the case. This also assumes that any learning difficulties prior to 2000 were mostly ignored.
Health
The high expenditure in social protection in Western countries is mostly related to the declining health of people, often children. This has not occurred because of declining expenditure on healthcare. In the West, Government expenditure on healthcare has increased over the past two decades (Our World in Data). However, the results from increased expenditure have not produced improved health.
The quality of a person’s health depends on many factors. These factors include genetics, lifestyle, environment, luck, and quality of healthcare.
People have no control over their own genetics, some control over their environment, and usually most control over their lifestyle. None of these are guarantees for good or bad health; they just affect the probability and how much luck a person needs to remain healthy.
Governments’ biggest role is to provide quality healthcare. However, they should also play a role in preventing illness. This could include influencing people to adopt a healthy lifestyle, ensuring food and drink is safe, and ensuring the environment is clean with limited contamination. The provision of healthcare is a response to illness. Ideally, this response should be to cure illness. Less than ideal, it should be to treat it and mitigate the worst symptoms. Unfortunately, treatment is usually the preferred approach, which is also the most profitable approach for the pharmaceutical companies supplying the healthcare service.
In my recent post, Global Conflict and Replacement Migration, I discuss the rising long-term sickness in the UK. Figure 11 offers a reminder of this sudden rise.
Figure 11: Long-Term Sickness in the UK
Source: Office for National Statistics
These long-term sickness statistics relate to people who would be in fulltime employment and therefore not related to the ageing population. It is an indication of declining health in the general population of the UK.
Heart disease and cancer are top causes of death in the West. Reducing incidences of both should be a priority of a good healthcare system. However, heart conditions and the incidences of cancer continue to increase.
Figure 12 contains the trends in heart attack deaths in young people (18-54 years old) in the US.
Figure 12: Trends in Heart Disease in the US
Source: Empirical
In the US, deaths from heart disease in young people have increased by above 50% between 2011 and 2022 for both men and women. This is arguably a terrible health outcome. The increasing number of cases of cancer in Europe is just as deeply concerning. Figure 13 contains the trends in incidences of cancer and mortality for several European countries from 1950 to 2018.
Figure 13: Trends in Cancer Incidences and Mortality
Source: Cancer Atlas
The number of incidences for all the countries in Figure 13 has significantly increased. The number of incidences per 100,000 people has more than doubled in Norway. The mortality rate for cancer for these countries has decreased. This is arguably because of improved cancer treatments that keep people alive for longer. However, the mortality rate has fallen at a lesser rate than the rate of number of incidences. Therefore, the total number of deaths from cancer continues to rise.
The West has an ageing population. Older people have a higher probability of falling ill than younger people. This is a predicable problem and one that can be easily prepared for. However, despite the predictability of the potential strain on health services from an older population. Western countries have done little to prepare for this strain. The availability of hospital beds has sharply fallen since 2000 and is expected to continue to fall. Figure 14 contains the trend in declining availability of beds and the trends in ageing population in OECD countries.
Figure 14: Hospital Crowding in OECD Countries
Source: Smart Crowding
Shortage of beds is not the only serious healthcare-related problem that Western countries face. The West faces shortages of doctors, and this shortage could become considerably worse. Many European countries have a high percentage of doctors that will soon reach retirement age. Unless replacements are found urgently, there could be a critical shortage of doctors. Figure 15 contains the percentage of doctors over the age of 55 for 30 European countries.
Figure 15: Percentage of Doctors Over 55 in European Countries
Source: Euronews
A key measure of the performance of healthcare services is waiting times. Older people experience physical decline. For example, they require treatment for cataracts and hip replacements. The waiting times for these procedures have increased for many European countries. Figure 16 contains and compares waiting times in a few selected years.
Figure 16: Waiting Times for Cataract, Hip Replacement, and GP Specialist Appointments
Source: OECD Organisation
The UK healthcare system is facing one of the worst crises of the Western world. The waiting times in accident and emergency departments have dramatically increased from the previous decade. Figure 17 contains the percentage of patients discharged or transferred within four hours of reaching the hospital (NHS target). Figure 18 contains the number of patients who had to wait more than twelve hours to be admitted into hospital.
Figure 17: Admission to A&E NHS England Target of 4 Hours
Figure 18: Number of Patients Waiting more than 12 Hours for Admission
Source: The King’s Fund
The West are increasing healthcare expenditure, but the standard of healthcare is falling. The systems are struggling to manage the ageing populations, which they should have been prepared to handle. However, the more alarming problem is the rise in sickness of young people.
Education
Many Western Governments have gradually increased expenditure on education over the past few decades (Our World in Data) This is an interesting trend considering birth rates in all Western countries have fallen considerably (see the figure presented later in the post). Hence, the cost of education should be lower. Therefore, greater expenditure on education should lead to better outcomes. However, this has not been the case. Figures 19, 20, and 21 contain the mean performance scores for students in the areas of reading, mathematics, and science, respectively, for selected European countries and the OECD averages.
Figure 19: Trends in Literacy Performance
Figure 20: Trends in Maths Performance
Figure 21: Trends in Science Performance
Source: The Guardian
Housing
House prices and rental prices have increased significantly for most Western countries over the past decade. Figure 22 contains house prices and rental prices indexed based on prices to income in 2014.
Figure 22: House and Rental Prices in the EU
Source: Oeconomus Economic Research Foundation
Housing is provided by both the State and the private sector. We could blame both for the shortages that have led to the relatively higher prices. The issuance of building permits in the EU has declined significantly since the beginning of the century. This has limited the number of buildings and houses the private sector can build. A freer flow of permits would have allowed the private sector to more easily meet demand and ease the price hike.
It is likely large construction firms will welcome the limited number of building permits, as it enables them to make a higher profit per building. The higher prices also work in favour of banks that make larger loans to buyers of property. Figure 23 contains the building permits metre square per 1,000 inhabitants in the EU between 2000 and 2024.
Figure 23: Building Permits in the EU (2000 to 2024)
Source: Oeconomus Economic Research Foundation
Housing shortages have played a key role in homelessness in the Western countries. Homelessness is a problem that people expect the Government to solve and prevent. Figure 24 contains the trends in homelessness in several selected European countries.
Figure 24: Trends in Homelessness for Selected European Countries
Source: Euronews
Energy
Energy prices have dramatically increased this decade. Figure 25 contains the trend in energy prices in the Euro Area for the past decade.
Figure 25: Trends in Energy Prices in the Euro Area
Source: Trading Economics
In Western countries, both public sector and private sector companies supply energy. However, Governments have played a bigger role in energy price changes than private companies. This has been largely through domestic and foreign policy. For many Western countries, domestic policy has limited the production of ‘fossil’ fuels in favour of renewable energy. This has restricted supply and has forced prices up (Wall Street Journal). However, the biggest drivers of the recent price hikes have been foreign policy.
Western countries (NATO) are indirectly at war with Russia through Ukraine. They have supplied Ukraine with the weapons and money to keep fighting Russia, and Ukraine has supplied the soldiers. Part of NATO’s war efforts have been sanctions on Russia. This has reduced the supply of oil and gas to Europe. This was the main reason for the price spike in 2022. The next price spike was in 2026. This was caused by the war in the Middle East, which has resulted in a large reduction in the supply of both oil and gas. The full extent of the impact on the price of energy has yet to be felt.
Crime
Preventing and addressing crime is an area many would consider a core area of responsibility for a Government. The legislative branch makes the laws, the judiciary branch interprets them, and the executive branch enforces them. All three branches play a role in preventing and addressing crime.
How well has the Government performed in addressing this key responsibility? Figures 26, 27, 28, and 29 contain trends in crimes relating to homicide, rape, robbery, and corruption, respectively, in the EU.
Figure 26: Trends in Homicides in the EU
Figure 27: Trends in Rape and Sexual Assault in the EU
Figure 28: Trends in Burglary, Robbery, and Theft
Figure 29: Trends in Bribery and Corruption
Source: Eurostat
It is good news that homicides have fallen significantly since 2008. However, the numbers have plateaued over the past decade. It is also good news that burglaries, robberies, and thefts have fallen. However, this decline might have more to do with underreporting than real reductions. For example, in the UK, in 2024, response times to burglaries had increased by over 25% from the previous year. In some cases, people had to wait up to 28 hours for the police to respond (Mirror). Over 80% of thefts and robberies are unsolved in London (BBC). Poor response times and lack of success are likely to lead to lower reporting of these crimes.
The most alarming statistic is the rapid increase in sexual violence and rape crimes in Europe. They have doubled in just a decade (2014 to 2024). This figure could be considerably higher. UNODC reports that 42% of rapes in Europe are not reported (Worldmetrics). There have been estimates from other sources that only between 10% and 15% of rapes are reported in countries such as France (Gitnux). According to UNICEF, 1 in 5 girls in Europe experience sexual abuse before the age of 18 (Worldmetrics).
It is even more alarming that very few rape crimes lead to convictions. In the UK, in 2023, only 1.4% of reported rape cases led to convictions (Gitnux). According to UNICEF, 78% of child rape cases in Europe are closed without prosecution.
Prison populations declined in the previous decade (2010s) but have begun to increase this decade (2020s). Overall prison populations are lower than they were fifteen years ago. Figure 30 contains the trends in prison populations in Europe.
Figure 30: Trends in Prisoner Populations
Source: Eurostat
Despite the slightly fewer number of prisoners, most European countries still lack sufficient prison capacity. Roughly, half of all EU countries are at maximum or above maximum prison capacity. Figure 31 contains the prison occupancy rate for EU countries in 2023 and 2024.
Figure 31: Prison Occupancy in EU Countries
Source: Eurostat
Like health, education, housing, and energy, Western ‘justice’ systems are in crisis. The UK might be in the deepest trouble. Below, in Figures 32 to 40, the extent of many of the problems with courts and prisons is expressed.
Figure 32: Trends in Outstanding Court Cases
Figure 33: Trends in Number of Magistrates
Figure 34: Trends in Open Cases
Figure 35: Trends in Prison Capacity and Population
Figure 36: Prisoner Release Errors
Figure 37: Prison Assaults
Figure 38: Protest Incidents in Prison
Figure 39: Prison Officers in Public Sector Prisons
Figure 40: Reoffenders During Probation
Source: Institute for Government
Backlogs in courts are increasing, the number of employed magistrates is falling, prison capacity is not keeping up with prison populations, the number of prisoners released in error has dramatically increased, the extent of violence in prisons has dramatically increased, the number of prison officers has been reduced, and violence during probation has substantially increased.
Infrastructure
In Europe, investment in infrastructure is falling considerably behind needs. According to research, investment is half of what is needed. See Figure 41 below.
Figure 41: Investment Gap in Infrastructure
Source: BCG
The biggest problem is the rising cost of construction. As can be seen from Figure 42 below, construction costs have more than doubled in just over a decade. This does not even factor in the massive extent of wastage from Government indecision, incompetence, and change in scope of projects (Institute of Project Management).
Figure 42: Construction Producer Index
Source: Eurostat
Even simple maintenance work is not being adequately performed. Figure 43 shows the vast increase in the number of potholes in certain areas in the UK.
Figure 43: Highest Increase in Potholes in the UK
Source: Blackcircles
Military
National defence is another key responsibility of any Government. In terms of percentage of GDP, European Union countries decreased their military expenditure from 1990 to 2015. Then from 2015 to 2025, it increased to a similar percentage to 1990 (World Bank). As the GDP in the EU has increased significantly since 1990, so has expenditure on defence/military. Figure 44 contains the trend in defence/military expenditure for the EU from 1990 to 2025.
Figure 44: Defence Expenditure Trends for the EU
Source: World Bank
In 2025, the EU is spending around three times more on their military than they did in 1990. The most significant increases in expenditure came after 2015. What has this additional expenditure achieved? Figure 45 contains the number of military personnel in various militaries in 1990 and 2025. Figure 46 contains the numbers of army military vehicles and weapons in 1992 and 2022.
Figure 45: Military Personnel 1990 and 2025
Source: The Parliament
Figure 46: Army Vehicles 1992 and 2022
Source: Forbes
Since 1990, European militaries have been considerably reduced. Some armies have been reduced to around a quarter of their 1990 capability. On a per capita basis, these numbers would be even worse.
The navies of many European armies have also been decimated. There has been a 32% decline in the number of surface vessels since 1990 and a significant decline in submarines (Defence Connect).
Large sums of money are going to the US military industrial complex (63% of EU defence orders) with little to show for it (European Parliament).
Water
Water is another area either managed or regulated by Governments. Like almost all other areas discussed so far, Government expenditure has not brought with it improvement.
In Europe, on average, the price of water is increasing at a rate of 10% annually (Smartvatten). In the UK, all rivers and lakes are heavily polluted with chemicals (BBC). At least tap water is still drinkable in most EU countries.
Why is Almost Every Aspect of European Government Expenditure and Policy a Complete Failure?
Several arguments have been made for current European Government failures. These arguments include incompetence, woke ideology, and an increased number of immigrants.
An increased number of immigrants could put a strain on societies and economies. This is especially true when European countries are accepting more asylum seekers, who contribute little to the economy. The net negative impact of immigrants on Government services in Europe is minimal. Governments employ many immigrants in healthcare services.
The increased number of immigrants is not causing population explosions in Europe. Population growth in Europe is declining because of low birth rates. Figure 47 contains the trend in population growth in Europe, Figure 48 contains the trend in population growth in the UK, and Figure 49 contains a diagram displaying birth rates in each European country.
Figure 47: Trends in Population Growth in Europe
Figure 48: Trends in Population Growth in the UK
Source: Our World in Data
Figure 49: Birth Rates in Europe
Source: Visual Capitalist
Mass immigration into Europe has caused serious problems in terms of social cohesion. This has caused greater social unrest and has contributed to the increase in certain crimes (e.g., rape and sexual violence). However, mass immigration has not been a key driving factor to many other areas of decline. These include failing healthcare, a weakened military, a lower standard of education, and deteriorating infrastructure.
A possible reason for the failures of Government is incompetence. This is one of the main criticisms used by opposition parties to gain support. However, when Governments change, the same problems continue. In many cases, they have actually become worse. For this to be the case, it would require extreme incompetence to run through the top levels of every main political party in the West. It would be a pandemic of incompetence. Repeated incompetence on such a scale is not possible. In my post, Deliberate Incompetence as a Cover for Self-Destructive Policy I discuss why the Establishment prefer to create the perception of incompetence to hide the truth around their real motives.
Many ‘right-wing’ activists argue that woke ideology is a key reason for the extent of Government inefficiency and wastage. Resources are spent on various diversity, equity, and inclusion programmes. I would argue woke ideology is a mechanism of both control and divide-and-conquer strategies. It justifies wasteful expenditure rather than a cause of it.
High Government expenditure is a mechanism for transferring wealth from the public (i.e., through high taxes or through inflation) to large companies. The excessively high percentage of Government expenditure and GDP on procurement is evidence of this transfer of wealth. The poor outcomes are a good thing for both Government and large businesses. It is used to justify increasing taxes and borrowing more money to rectify the problems that are often blamed on a previous Government. Changing Governments through elections is important to maintain the deception and deflect blame.
The extent of decline in the West, particularly in Europe, is more alarming than ever before. It appears the plan is more than just a transfer of wealth to the elite. It appears that the Establishment are intentionally trying to destroy European countries. This is compounded by the social tensions arising from mass immigration. I explain this plan in my post, Deliberate Incompetence as a Cover for Self-Destructive Policy.
Conclusion
Western Governments have continued to increase both taxes and borrowing for decades. Yet, Western countries, European in particular, have seen decline or stagnation in almost every area Governments’ are directing expenditure. This post has covered social protection, health, education, energy, crime, housing, infrastructure, water, and defence. The Governments’ response to the decline is higher taxation and borrowing.
European countries are at a point where tax revenue is close to impossible to increase and borrowing is close to its limit. High interest payments are becoming a significantly higher cost for EU countries (Bruegel). If the current misuse of Government expenditure continues, the decline of Europe will be even more rapid.
The Sapien Loop Series
I have written a trilogy of books titled Sapien Loop. The first in the series is Sapien Loop: End of an Era, the second is Sapien Loop: Frozen in Time, and the third is Sapien Loop: Worlds Collide. I published the whole series as ebooks on Amazon, and I have posted completed chapters to my 
In 2025, I wrote a short stories book about some of the characters and their adventures. This book is now available on Amazon. I have also posted these stories to my
Brief Summary of Sapien Loop: End of an Era
This story is based on the fictional planet Sapia and its sole country, Sapey. Sapey is portrayed as a form of utopia for all its citizens. No poverty. No war. Almost no crime. Opportunities for all.
This was enough for most citizens, but not all. In one of the small regions, some of the citizens had become discontent. They felt something important was missing in their lives. Their discontent did not go unnoticed. Some of the Sapey elite wanted to weaponise this discontent to gain more power. This created more chaos than they anticipated. This led to further widespread social unrest.
On top of the chaos, ambition and greed provoked another enemy. This enemy was on a mission to settle both new and old scores.
Brief Summary of Sapien Loop: Frozen in Time
This story is based six years after the original story. The Downs Region is still suffering from a serious health crisis caused by the contaminated water. The main characters are desperately trying to find a cure for the illness that has been caused by the water.
One of the main characters has discovered frozen humanoids in hidden chambers. It appears they have been frozen for a long time. These chambers connect to a vast network of tunnels. While exploring the tunnels, one of the frozen humanoids disappears. It appears he has been stolen.
The story takes a step back in time to tell the story of the frozen humanoids. How and why were they frozen? This part of the story also explains the fall of ancient Sapey and the birth of the Sapiens. Can those from the past be able to coexist with those from the present?
Brief Summary of Sapien Loop: Worlds Collide
Sapien Loop: Worlds Collide continues the story directly after the events of the second book. Orcilla and Yassmay continue their journey to find help. In doing so, they encounter a dissident group from the underground world.
Tiberius is secured as the puppet leader for the underground Linap. He is being used to control the surface world from the Downs Region. Tiberius is unhappy with this arrangement and desires to be fully in control.
Resistance has formed to take back the Downs Region from Tiberius and the underground Linap. They aim to turn the underground population against Tiberius. If that fails, their only hope is to join forces with the dissident group Orcilla and Yassmay encountered.
All worlds may be destined to collide. Will Sapey finally be free of tyranny, is it destined to be destroyed, or is it locked into another loop of oppression?