Hi Everyone,
It’s NFL playoff time again. Predicting the Super Bowl has become an annual tradition for me. I have made a Super Bowl prediction every year since the 2019/2020 season. I have had mixed success with my predictions. Two out of the four years, I have managed to predict one of the Super Bowl teams. I have yet to predict a winner. Let’s see if I can finally get the winner right this year.
Here are my posts from previous years.
I usually make one post with all my predictions for the playoffs. I would then follow up with new predictions in the comments sections based on the games I got wrong. This year, I will update the main post with new predictions after each round of the playoffs. I will begin with the usual predictions for the whole playoffs. Then, each week, I will update each section of the post with new predictions based on the results from the previous round as well as possibly new information that might change my predictions (e.g. a team loses a star player).
I will leave three sections blank. They will be predictions before the Divisional Round, Conference Championship, and Super Bowl. It will be interesting to see how many times I change my mind.
The teams in the playoffs for the AFC are as follows based on seeding:
The teams in the playoffs for the NFC are as follows based on seeding:
The first round games are as follows:
Buffalo Bills vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins
Houston Texans vs. Cleveland Browns
Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers
Detroit Lions vs. L.A. Rams
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Before I start making my predictions, I want to make a brief analysis of all 14 teams based on statistics from the regular season. Below are the regular season records, points for and against, and recent form (last 5 games) for all the playoff teams.
Source: NFL
The win-loss records of the top playoff teams are very close. The Ravens stand out in the AFC with a 13-4 record. Behind them are three teams tied with 11-6 records. They are the Bills, Chiefs, Dolphins, and Browns. In the NFC, there are three teams tied with 12-5 records. They are the 49ers, Cowboys, and Lions. Seeding in the playoffs was mostly determined through tiebreaker rules.
The point’s differential varies considerably between these top teams. In the AFC, the Ravens and Bills stand out with net points differences (points scored minus points conceded) of 204 and 140, respectively. In the NFC, the Cowboys and 49ers stand out with net points differences of 194 and 193, respectively.
The results of the previous five games provide an indication of each team’s current form. In the AFC, the in-form teams based on recent results are the Bills, Ravens, and Browns, with five, four, and four wins, respectively. In the NFC, the in-form teams are the Buccaneers and Rams, with four wins each over the past five games.
The most relevant statistic from the win-loss records could be the resulting seeding. The Ravens and 49ers are top-seeded. With this, both teams obtain a bye in the first round of the playoffs (Wild Card Round), and they will play at home for the remainder of the playoffs until the Super Bowl.
The win-loss records only reveal part of the picture. Below are some of the other important statistics that indicate the relative strengths and weaknesses of each team. These are yards per play, percentage of plays that result in turnovers, penalties, and strength of schedule.
Source: ESPN, Power Rankings Guru for strength of schedule, and NFL Penalties
Note: %TO is the percentage of plays resulting in turnovers, play is yards per play, and SOS is the strength of schedule.
In the AFC, the Dolphins stood out as having the most productive offense (both passing and rushing). They were averaging 0.6 yards more per play than the next best, the Ravens. However, the Dolphins were prone to turning over the ball. They turned the ball over on 2.4% of offensive plays, which was higher than the Texans, Steelers and Ravens, which turned the ball over 1.4%, 1.6%, and 1.8%, respectively.
In the NFC, the 49ers stood out as having the most productive offense (both passing and rushing). They were averaging 0.8 yards more per play than the next best, the Lions. The 49ers also rarely turned the ball over. Only the Cowboys had a lower percentage of offensive plays that resulted in turnovers.
In the AFC, the Browns, Ravens, and Chiefs stood out defensively in terms of average yards per play. The Browns and Ravens also stood out in terms of forced turnovers, whereas the Chiefs did not. The Bills were also proficient in forcing turnovers.
In the NFC, the 49ers stood out defensively in both yards allowed per play as well as plays resulting in turnovers. The 49ers defence was almost on par with the Ravens' and Browns' defences.
To add further context to the statistics, it is worth considering the strength of schedule. Strength of schedule is determined based on the strength of the teams played in the regular season. A low score indicates a more difficult schedule. The Ravens had the strongest schedule out of all 14 playoff teams; they had the third hardest schedule in the league. The Steelers, Browns, and Rams also had hard schedules. They ranked 4th, 10th, and 8th, respectively.
Based on season statistics, the Ravens stand out as having the best regular season. The 49ers are a close second. The AFC appears considerably more competitive than the NFC. In the NFC, the Cowboys appear to be the only credible challenge to the 49ers.
Super Bowl odds are a useful indicator of the teams that people believe are most likely to win the Super Bowl. They are willing to support their decisions by risking money. Below are the Super Bowl odds for all 14 teams.
Source: Odds Checker accessed 11/01/2024
The 49ers are slight favourites over the Ravens. The Ravens are clearly favoured over the next team, the Bills. The 49ers are favourites over the Ravens because they face less competition from the NFC teams. If both the 49ers and the Ravens reach the Super Bowl, it is possible the odds could flip in favour of the Ravens. Below are the most likely Super Bowl matchups based on odds.
| Most Likely | Matchup | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ravens vs. 49ers | +310 |
| 2 | Bills vs. 49ers | +550 |
| 3 | Ravens vs. Cowboys | +850 |
| 4 | Chiefs vs. 49ers | +1,000 |
| 5 | Bills vs. Cowboys | +1,400 |
| 6 | Dolphins vs. 49ers | +1,700 |
| 7 | Ravens vs. Eagles | +1,800 |
| 8 | Ravens vs. Lions | 1,900 |
| 9 | Chiefs vs. Cowboys | +2,500 |
Source: Covers citing DraftKings January 9, 2024
The top four and seven out of nine most likely Super Bowls feature either the Ravens or the 49ers.
Super Bowl winners are always going to be good teams, but they are not necessarily going to be the best teams. There are other factors at play. Some of these include:
Offenses are normally more interesting than defences. High-scoring games are often preferred over low-scoring games. However, the most preferred are close games, which are determined in the final quarter or even minutes of the game. Games are also more entertaining based on the star power of the players. Almost every Super Bowl over the past few decades has featured a star quarterback.
Big games often have interesting storylines. In 2023, it was the Kelce brothers. In 2022, it was the L.A. Rams and the Hollywood Super Bowl. In 2021, it was the old G.O.A.T., Tom Brady, against the future G.O.A.T., Patrick Mahomes. This year, storyline is just as likely to be important since the Super Bowl is being held in Las Vegas.
Unpredictability is good. The NFL wants to keep the fans guessing. This is good for entertainment and gambling. Considering so many teams have such similar records, it appears any team has a chance of winning.
Gambling is a huge part of the NFL. Since the Super Bowl is in Las Vegas, this will be even bigger this year. I would expect results to go in a way that favours the house. This may not necessarily be in the first round, but it is certainly likely in the later rounds.
The NFL, like most sports, is political. We have seen this with Black Lives Matter as well as the wars in the early 2000s. It is quite possible there will be political themes relating to domestic politics or even the war in the Middle East.
Source: Super Bowl Challenge
Buffalo Bills vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
This will be the first time these teams meet this season. The Buffalo Bills are the strong favourites. They appear to be the stronger team, and they are currently in better form. In the later rounds, I do not see a storyline match for the Steelers. However, the Bills could continue their rivalry with the Chiefs in the Divisional Round. I predict the Bills to win.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins
This will be the second time these teams meet this season. In Week 9, the Chiefs won the first game in Germany. This should be a very good game. The Dolphins have one of the best offenses in the league; it features former Chiefs star receiver, Tyreek Hill. The Chiefs also have a good offense, but it has underperformed this year. They were ranked number one last season. The Chiefs defence has improved since last season. Is it good enough to stop or slow the Dolphins? I predict the Dolphins may score plenty of points, but I also think the Chiefs offense will wake up. The Dolphins’ defence also has several injuries, which make it easier for the Chiefs to score more points. I predict the Chiefs will win a close, high-scoring game.
Houston Texans vs. Cleveland Browns
This will be the second time these teams meet this season. The Browns beat the Texans just a few weeks ago in Week 16. I don’t think circumstances have changed that much for either team. Browns quarterback, Joe Flacco, is in good form. A win against the Texans will give Joe his record breaking eighth road playoff win. A win will also set Joe up for a match against his former team, the Ravens. I predict the Browns to win.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers
This will be the first time these teams meet this season. The Cowboys have the edge over the Packers in almost every major category, and they are playing at home. The Cowboys are unbeaten at home this year. The Cowboys have some potentially interesting future matchups in the playoffs, which could include a revenge match against the 49ers, continued rivalry with the Eagles, or a rematch with the Lions to resolve the controversy from a couple of weeks ago. I predict the Cowboys to win.
Detroit Lions vs. L.A. Rams
This will be the first time these teams meet this season. This is a huge matchup. Matthew Stafford takes on his old team, the Lions, and Jared Goff takes on his old team, the Rams. These quarterbacks were swapped a few years ago. Arguably, both have done better with their new teams. The Lions are the home team and favourites. However, the Rams are in better form, and they have a formidable passing game that could attack the Lions vulnerable pass defence.
A win for the Lions will set up a rematch with the Cowboys. A win for the Rams will set up a rematch with their old rivals, the 49ers. This game has the potential to go either way. Vegas profits probably favour the Lions, but a Rams win could lead to a more interesting and profitable Divisional Round. I predict the Rams to win.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
This will be the second time these teams meet this season. The Eagles beat the Buccaneers, in Tampa Bay, convincingly in Week 3. It was one of their more convincing victories of the season. A lot has changed for the Eagles. They have lost five of their last six games, three of them by large margins. The Buccaneers have been in much better form, winning four of their last five games.
The Eagles are still just about favourites. Last year’s Super Bowl appearance was probably a key factor. The Buccaneers are weak offensively. Despite the Eagles’ recent poor defensive performances, the Buccaneers might not have enough offensive power to put up many points. I predict the Eagles win and move on to play the Cowboys.
Assuming all my predictions are correct (highly unlikely), the matches for the Divisional Round should be as follows:
Ravens vs. Browns
Bills vs. Chiefs
49ers vs. Rams
Cowboys vs. Eagles
Ravens vs. Browns
This would be the third time these teams meet this season. They have won one game each. The game the Browns won was in Baltimore, the venue for this game. This would be a very special matchup, as Joe Flacco would be returning to Baltimore to play the team he won a Super Bowl with.
The Ravens are likely to be heavily favoured. The Browns will be given great odds. This will tempt many people to bet on them, considering they have already won in Baltimore. The Ravens have a poor recent history in the playoffs. Defensively, the two teams are on par, but the Ravens have a much stronger offense. I strongly believe the Ravens will win convincingly.
Bills vs. Chiefs
This would be the second time these teams meet this season. The Bills won the first game in Kansas. It was a close game that was decided on the final drive. What would have been the Chiefs winning touchdown was negated by a penalty. Patrick Mahomes has never played a road playoff game in his career. This Bills game could be his first attempt. Patrick Mahomes has also struggled against the Bills. His team has lost three of the last four games against them, including a playoff game. This would be the perfect game for him to prove himself. I predict the Chiefs will win.
49ers vs. Rams
This would be the third time these teams meet this season. The 49ers have dominated the Rams for years in regular-season games. However, two years ago, the Rams beat the 49ers in the NFC Championship. The 49ers and Rams have won one game each this season. The Rams beat the 49ers in the final game of the season, but it did not mean much as both teams played their reserve teams. This win might lead to more bets on the Rams. The odds are likely to be strongly in favour of the 49ers, which will encourage even more bets on the Rams. The 49ers are by far the stronger team. They would be home and rested. I would expect them to win comfortably.
Cowboys vs. Eagles
This would be the third time these teams meet this season. They have won one game each. Some might be expecting the Eagles to upset the Cowboys after what might have been a strong showing against the Buccaneers. However, the Cowboys have been dominant at home and have been successful against the Eagles at home, winning the previous six home games against them.
If the Eagles win, they could have a rematch with the 49ers in the NFC Conference Championship. However, the 49ers showed dominance over the Eagles in the regular season in Philadelphia. Cowboys versus 49ers might be a more interesting revenge match considering that the 49ers have eliminated the Cowboys in back-to-back playoffs. The 49ers and Cowboys also have a long history in the NFC Conference Championship. They played each other several times in the 80s and 90s. I predict the Cowboys to win.
Assuming all my predictions are correct (would be a miracle), the matches for the Conference Championship should be as follows:
Ravens vs. Chiefs
49ers vs. Cowboys
Ravens vs. Chiefs
This would be the first time these teams meet this season. It has been awhile since these two have played. The last time they played, in 2021, the Ravens won, but that was the only win the Ravens have had over the Chiefs in the past 10 years. Quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs and Lamar Jackson of the Ravens are two of the best quarterbacks in the league. Yet they have no rivalry to speak of. This might be the beginning of one.
Based on their performance this season, the Ravens would enter this game as favourites.
The past two season, the colour of the Super Bowl contenders have matched the colours of the Super Bowl logo. If the Ravens and 49ers play in the Super Bowl, this will happen again (CBS Sports). This would be a reason for more bets to go on both the Ravens and 49ers. If the Chiefs had made it this far, Patrick Mahomes would be in great form. Despite the Ravens strong defence, I believe the Chiefs would still be able to score many points against them. I also think the NFL wants the Chiefs in the Super Bowl because of the draw of Taylor Swift. I predict the Chiefs to win.
49ers vs. Cowboys
This would be the second time these teams meet this season. In Week 5, the 49ers hammered the Cowboys 42-10. This was a statement win over the Cowboys that added insult to injury on top of eliminating the Cowboys from two previous playoffs. This game would be the Cowboys opportunity for revenge.
Based on recent history, most people are likely to consider the 49ers to be strong favourites, but the Cowboys are not much weaker in terms of statistics and also have the same regular-season record as the 49ers. The Cowboys motivation to win could be enough to spring an upset on the 49ers. The 49ers success has relied on them controlling the game early. An early lead for the Cowboys could bring the 49ers down. I predict the Cowboys to win a close game.
I predict the Kansas City Chiefs will face the Dallas Cowboys in the Super Bowl. This would be the first Wild West (Cowboys and Indians) Super Bowl, which would be appropriate for Las Vegas. The Chiefs would also be bringing Taylor Swift to the Super Bowl, which would be an additional draw.
This Super Bowl would also match the politics of the war in the Middle East. The Cowboys would represent Israel with their blue and white team colours. The Cowboys also have a player named Israel. The Cowboys and Chiefs match the perceptions of the ‘left'. The Cowboys are the invaders and the Chiefs are the natives defending their land against ‘colonialism’.
This game would be Patrick Mahomes chance to win his third Super Bowl and the first back-to-back Super Bowl win since 2004. He would be walking a similar path to Tom Brady. For the Cowboys, it would be their chance to win a record-tying sixth Super Bowl. Former Cowboys’ coach Jimmy Johnson was just added to the Cowboys’ Ring of Honour. He left the Cowboys after winning back-to-back Super Bowls in 1992 and 1993.
I would predict this game to be an exciting and wild showdown. It would be high-scoring and close. In the end, I expect the Chiefs to win. Patrick Mahomes would win another MVP award.
I have made 13 predictions. I expect to get several wrong. Below are the updated predictions for each round.
The Wild Card Round went really badly for me. I got every NFC game wrong, and I got one AFC game wrong. Three of the four Divisional Round games that I predicted will be different. The only game that remains the same is the Bills vs. Chiefs. I will keep my previous prediction of a Chiefs win. For the other three games, I will make new predictions.
Ravens vs. Texans
The Ravens played the Texans in the season opener. The Ravens won comfortably by the score of 25-9. A lot can change over the course of a season. Both teams played better as the season progressed. The Texans were inconsistent with losses to some weak teams, such as the Jets and the Panthers. The Ravens have been far more consistent in the second half of the season. This is a great David-Goliath type game. The Texans could get a huge upset win over the Ravens. Many neutral fans will be routing for them. With the odds strongly favouring the Ravens, I think many people will pick the Texans. The Ravens poor recent playoff history works against them. However, I think the Ravens will win. They are too good not to be in the AFC Conference Championship.
49ers vs. Packers
This will be the first time these teams meet this season. The 49ers and Packers have a long playoff history. The Packers dominated the 49ers in the 90s and the 49ers have dominated the Packers over the past decade. This would be a good revenge upset matchup for the Packers. Two years ago, the Packers were the number one seed, and the 49ers were the sixth seed. The 49ers won the game in Green Bay by the score of 13-10. The 49ers are strong favourites to win this time, but I predict the game will be very close. With very little certainty, I predict the 49ers to win. The Packers revenge may have to wait a few more seasons.
Lions vs. Buccaneers
This will be the first time these teams meet this season. In Week 6, the Lions won in Tampa Bay by the score of 20-6. The Lions have looked the better team for much of the season. Both teams came into the playoffs with underdog appeal. Both teams have quarterbacks who have struggled with other teams but have performed better with their current teams. The Lions are the only team that has been operational throughout the entire Super Bowl era not to play in it. This makes them the ultimate playoff underdog. Something that would appeal to Vegas. The Buccaneers are an underdog this season but have been regulars to the playoffs and won the Super Bowl three years ago. I predict the Lions to win and to face the 49ers in the NFC Conference Championship for a true David-Goliath finale for the NFC.
Therefore, my conference championship games will be:
AFC
Ravens vs. Chiefs
NFC
49ers vs. Lions
The Divisional Round went really well for me. I was right on all four of my predictions. Therefore, I am now 6-4 predicting results for these playoffs. Three of the four teams I originally predicted to make it to the championship have done so. I was wrong about the Lions. Therefore, for this update, I will only be predicting the 49ers Lions game. I have already predicted the result of the Ravens vs. Chiefs game in the original section of my post. I still stick with this prediction of the Chiefs winning. The purple in the Super Bowl logo does not tempt me to pick the Ravens.
49ers vs. Lions
The 49ers are in the NFC Championship again. This is the fourth time in five years and the third in a row. Despite the 49ers dominance, none of these appearances has resulted in the 49ers winning the Super Bowl. It is the exact opposite for the Lions. They have not appeared in an NFC Championship game since 1991, when they lost to the Washington Redskins. That was their only appearance in the NFC Championship game. The 49ers have appeared in 19 NFC Championship games. They have appeared in about a third of all NFC Championship games ever played. Based on performance this season, the 49ers look like the stronger team. This game has a real David vs. Goliath feel.
I expect most neutral fans will be rooting for the Lions. It would be nice for them to make their first-ever Super Bowl appearance. With the odds heavily stacked in favour of the 49ers, betting on the Lions will be tempting. The Lions have shown they are capable of putting up many points. They have also shown they are capable of stopping the run. The Lions have a more seasoned quarterback in Jared Goff. Jared even appeared in a Super Bowl with his former team, the Rams. The 49ers quarterback is young and only playing his second year in the NFL.
The Lions winning the game is plausible, and some may ever consider their chances to be good if they are strongly driven to reach the team’s first Super Bowl. However, the 49ers will also be highly driven considering they have missed out on Super Bowl appearances two years in a row. Many of their players are ageing, and this could be their last chance.
I predict the 49ers to win and for them to head to the Super Bowl. I see a rematch with the Chiefs as too much of a draw for the NFL to miss out on. The first game in 2020 was a great Super Bowl. Both teams have been the most dominant in either conference for the past 5 years. The Chiefs have now played in six consecutive AFC Championship games. We still get the theme of the natives protecting their land from greedy gold miners who are trying to ravage it. This still somewhat aligns with the politics in the Middle East.
Therefore, my prediction for the Super Bowl is:
I managed to predict both Conference Championship games correctly. I am on a roll with perfect predictions in both the past two rounds. That is six correct in a row. I wish I had started my predictions from the Divisional Round. I would look like a genius. To be honest, it has been more luck than skill.
Who is going to win Super Bowl 58? It is the Chiefs vs. 49ers. A rematch from four years ago (Super Bowl 54), which the Chiefs won. This Super Bowl will even have the same referee, Bill Vinovich. Is this just a coincidence or something else?
My initial Super Bowl prediction was for the Chiefs to beat the Cowboys. The Cowboys crashed out in the Wild Card Round. The Chiefs won all three playoff games. They were the underdogs in two of those three games. The Chiefs have been significantly better in the playoffs than in the regular season. I expected this to be the case. The NFL really wanted Taylor Swift at the Super Bowl. It makes sense. She brings in the money. According to some sources; over US$ 330 Million, (New York Post).
Now that Taylor is at the Super Bowl, the Chiefs do not necessarily need to win. There are no more games left to profit from Taylor’s appearance. However, there are other benefits from a Chiefs’ win. A big one is the comparison between Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady. If the Chiefs win, this will be Patrick’s third Super Bowl. Tom Brady had three Super Bowls in his first decade in the NFL. Patrick Mahomes would also be the first quarterback with back-to-back Super Bowl wins since Tom Brady. There is also the potential for the continued love story between Taylor Swift and her boyfriend, Travis Kelce. A Super Bowl win could be followed by a romantic marriage proposal. This scenario is getting some attention in the media (Daily Mail).
The 49ers are the favourites going into this game. However, people are overwhelmingly betting on the Chiefs to win. See betting from Sports Betting Dime below.
It looks like people are buying into the Chiefs narrative. There will also be some people betting on the Chiefs because they have played better than the 49ers in the playoffs. The 49ers have scrapped through two homes they were expected to win easily.
The key thing to remember about this Super Bowl is that it is in Vegas. Vegas is the gambling capital of the world. Vegas will be the ultimate winner of the Super Bowl because the house always wins. For the house to win, the Chiefs have to lose. The best way to ensure that is by having the most controversial referee in the NFL, Bill Vinovich. I believe this game will most likely come down to a decision made by Bill Vinovich.
Imagine this scenario. The 49ers get off to a quick start. They may even lead by as many as 20 points. Then, at some point, the game turns. The Chiefs mount a heroic comeback. In the final minutes of the game, the Chiefs are driving down the field to get the game-winning touchdown. This drive is interrupted by a very obviously missed pass interference call. This will essentially end the drive, and the 49ers win. At the same time, Patrick Mahomes still comes off as looking very good. He may even become the first quarterback MVP for a losing team.
There are many other possible ways this game could end, but I think it is likely to be dramatic. The referees will have some part to play in the outcome of this game. However it is done, I predict the 49ers will win.
Below are two fun gifs I made the last time the Chiefs and 49ers met in the Super Bowl.
The Super Bowl has come and gone. My final prediction was wrong. The Chiefs defeated the 49ers in overtime. It was a very close game. The Chiefs were down and came back as I predicted, but instead of falling short, they won the game. Patrick Mahomes was the Super Bowl MVP, as I predicted. He won it as a winner instead of a loser. The referees appeared to do a good job. I did not see any obvious bad decisions like in the Super Bowl four years ago. The referees did not determine the outcome of this game. The game was lower scoring than I predicted. Offenses did not play as well as I expected.
Overall, I did well with my predictions. I predicted 8 out of 13 games correctly. I predicted the Chiefs would win the Super Bowl from the start, but I changed my mind a few days before the Super Bowl. I did better with my predictions for the AFC games. I only got one result wrong. My NFC predictions fell apart because I predicted the Cowboys to make the Super Bowl, but they were eliminated in the first round. Therefore, many of my initial predictions were invalid, as the games did not occur.
I have several collections of posts. I have organised these collections based on content and purpose.
The first collection contains six collection posts created before PeakD had the collection feature. Four of these posts relate to the core of my content; one of them contains all my Actifit Posts, and one of them contains my video course, ‘Economics is Everyone’.
The second collection consists of the posts that I consider define my channel. These posts are significant in terms of content as well as how they contribute to the growth of the channel. These posts reveal the most about what I believe in.
The third and fourth collections are what I call my ‘Freedom-based Economics Living Book’. They contain all the posts that support my ideas about the value and power of freedom. Some of these posts explain what we can achieve with freedom and what we need to utilise it for. Some of them explain how we are deprived of freedom and how we often give up freedom for security and comfort. The third collection concludes with possible scenarios depending on what we (society) choose to do.
