'Terrorism and Probability Neglect'. A small excerpt by Cass R. Sunstein from 'The Journal of Risk and Uncertainty', 2003. The insights shared in this document aren't exactly refreshing. A summary: Terrorism instills fear. The fear is greater than the threat. Recommendation to governments: Reduce (unlikely) fears if the benefits from the efforts (to reduce fear) outweigh the costs. The fear focuses on the outcome itself, while the outcome is not very likely to happen. (Text seems to imply we're only afraid of being direct victims of terror.)
Former dutch weather forecaster Helga van Leur had something interesting to share with the world yesterday, November the 11th 2017:
“Chances of passing away by air pollution in Europe are much higher than by terrorism...
Actually rather odd that we are still more afraid of terrorism... #psychology #human #brain #
#probabilitycalculation”
Comparing fatalities caused by air pollution with death caused by terror, while mentioning how out of proportion our fear for terrorism seems to be. A false comparison. Marginalizing terrorism to address the issue of pollution: It seems to fit her agenda very well since Helga is 'active' as an ambassador of Weather, Climate, Durability & Behavior. Her tweet was good for some harsh criticism. So today she tweeted a response:
“Gee, lot of emotions came free by this tweet. And a remarkable number of prejudices. To me it was about the
phenomenon of probability neglect. Explanation:
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1023/A:1024111006336 …
It can make your life more enjoyable if you understand how it works.”
A remarkable number of prejudices? I saw some poorly formulated responses, but at least one was strong enough to deserve a proper answer. So she went into bullshit mode and there it was, probability neglect.
Meanwhile she probably just wants to make us think about pollution. Honestly, we could do something about the pollution our lifestyle causes, if we weren't so lazy. We want to enjoy modern comforts. Plenty of people step into their car to get groceries at a supermarket that is pretty much around the corner. Convenience, living life with less effort. Nobody steps into their vehicle to pollute the world. Pollution isn't a goal, it's a side-effect, while fear caused by terrorism is a goal.
A follower claimed that criticism on her tweet came from a desire to bash Muslims. If only he knew what he was writing. Who is bashing who? Opposing terrorism isn't about looking the other way, it's about the facts. If we must use statistics this is the right moment to do so. Numbers are clear: Islam inspired terrorism mostly kills Muslims.
After this fact was brought to the table, the follower claimed to be indifferent about terror. It's not something he could influence. There was no dialogue, he just stopped caring. Perhaps a side-effect of being told what to think? Did he ran out of answers? I think Albert Einstein was right when he said:
"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former."
Probability neglect holds no answers to the fears of a terrorist threat. My concerns are about the victims and those concerns are very real. It's not about being the next terror victim myself, but about the people that do become victims. Who's suffering is irrelevant. It's about empathy and a greater understanding of connection. It's about being an indirect victim simply because we feel for the victims. It's about the anger, sadness and disbelief we experience. The fear is brought on by the pain terror brings us, again and again. Pain which is very hard to avoid. Unless you're stupid.
What this means?
Well, I learned a few things:
It means we should never attempt to marginalize or deny threats. I was in Amsterdam yesterday and I noticed strategically placed concrete blocks at the rembrandtplein. Those weren't there because they're so decorative.
When you do your groceries: For Helga's sake, grab a bicycle! But don't try to save the planet by looking the other way, that's just stupid.
I really miss Helga as being this lovely weather forecaster. (Even without watching much television.)
I should do better things on Sundays.
I figured out how to add pictures to posts. Yay!
