The halving has historically been the lowest price of BTC before the rise up 12–18 months after, which puts us at the end of 2029–2030 range for the next rise.
Asset prices need to drop hard, and there is/will be resistance to it. Housing, for instance—barely anyone can afford current prices, even if they lower rates to COVID levels—needs a 25% cut to be in the realm of affordability for most Americans, and this phenomenon is found also in Europe too. Stock market is trading well above historic P/E ratios, so can see a big cut there happening. Also, BTC has like 99% of holders in profit—large profits even—and given it's been treated as a risk-on asset, I can see a nice dump happening, which also coincides with the historical fall-off pattern BTC has in the in-between years. The only asset I see doing well will be gold, which will benefit from the cuts, its historic status as a safety asset, and the renewed interest from central banks to increase their holdings and shift away from US Treasuries.
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