We all know that one day the oil and coal will run out. This is often described as the peak oil theory and it was first proposed by M. King Hubbert in 1956.
Whether you recognize it or not, our modern cities are built around the existence of oil, the primary influence being cars.
Fast moving automobiles means that modern cities can be large and spread out. Roads are wide and stores are often long distances from the buildings where people live.
When the oil and coal runs out and fossil fuel powered cars go the way of the dinosaurs then how will cities cope?
This post explores some technological responses to this future issue.
Electric Powered Vehicles
The most popular proposed technological solution to this technical conundrum is electric powered vehicles and the most famous company for this is Tesla.
The cars are still expensive, their ranges are still limited and their charging times are still long but the technology is undergoing rapid development and improvements on each of these issues are being made each year.
Another option for electric powered vehicles is inductive power transfer technology from embedded equipment in the road itself to the car as it drives along.
An older and well-proven technology is direct contact power transfer from overhead wires to a power pole on the vehicle although this is more commonly seen in mass transit buses and streetcars which I will discuss later in this post.
Biofuels
Batteries seem to be the preferred technology for a post oil world but carbon based liquid fuels still can't be beat for energy density and safety of handling.
Fossil fuels were created in the carboniferous era in which wood bearing life was abundant but microbial species did not yet exist to break down this type of dead plant matter. This meant that vast quantities of dead plant matter built up over time, got buried, and then slowly converted into the fossil fuels we use today.
When the oil runs out we can replicate this kind of process with oil-rich algae or bio-engineered bacteria. Algae-based fuels are promising and have the potential for generating large amounts of useful fuel on a per acre basis. Although there are still some technological issues with this method of producing fuel none of them seem to be insurmountable given enough attention and funds.
The day may come when countries with access to abundant non-arable land, solar irradiance and water may become the Saudi Arabia's of tomorrow. Places like Spain, Australia, Algeria, Libya, Mexico and Texas could become the algae based liquid fuel production superpowers of the future.
Electric Powered Mass Transit
When the oil runs out and if biofuels are not plentiful or they are too expensive for the average consumer then cities may have to electrify their streets and freeways and build out a massive public transit system. This technology is well known and is already used in many cities around the world.
Electric powered buses and streetcars with power poles contacting overhead electric power lines would be a relatively cheap and quick way to keep our large cities from coming to a standstill.
Overhead gondola cars may also become a popular form of mass transit. These are usually seen only on ski slopes carrying people from the base of the mountain up to the peak but they have been adapted for use on a horizontal plan to carry people around their city.
The benefits of gondolas is that they don't interfere much with the ground infrastructure and they can be run on electricity.
City Re-Design
The current urban planning model for modern cities is to make them large, to give as many people as possible a single unit dwelling on a largish plot of land and to zone different economic activities in different areas of the city.
A post oil city will need to be retrofitted to make cities more walkable so that vehicles won't have to be used in the first place. Living densities will need to increase significantly and the era of the suburbs will most likely be over.
Homes, offices, stores and maybe even factories will all have to become closer to each other. Dangerous factories will still need to be kept separate and the workers will need to get to these by mass transit.
Rationing of Fuel
If the biofuel project doesn't manage to make liquid fuels cheap and if the electric vehicle project doesn't manage to make battery powered vehicles useful then rationing of the limited liquid biofuels will be needed.
Liquid fuels may therefore become unavailable to the general public and will only be used for priority transportation such as:
- police and emergency vehicles,
- military vehicles,
- food production (tractors etc.),
- food transportation (trucks and boats),
- intercity cargo trains, and
- intercity passenger trains.
If you like hopping into your vehicle and driving to a store across the city on a whim then you may be out of luck in the future.
Electric Power Grid
When the fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas) run out, humanity will be left with hydroelectric power, wind power, solar electric power, tidal power and fission power. If we are lucky, fusion power may be an economically viable option before all the coal and natural gas are gone.
Currently, the electric grid does not power much of the transportation sector so a massive build out will be needed to keep modern economies running. This will likely have to be done at a time when an economic recession or even an economic depression is occurring and so will require enormous political will power.
Sea-Going Transportation
Liquid fuels may be rationed to critical uses only so a lot of sea going cargo transport in the future will once again have to rely on wind power. Solar electric power panels may also line the decks of cargo ships to provide an additional speed boost to these boats.
A number of new technologies are being considered from combining solar panels with sails to having large computer-controlled sky sails pulling ships along across the oceans.
Whatever technology eventually wins out the era of a slow boat to China may eventually return (slow boat to America, slow boat to Europe, you get the idea).
Bye-bye Aviation Industry?
When passenger air travel first got started only the very rich could afford a ticket. These days air travel is currently very inexpensive and nearly everybody can afford to fly.
When the oil runs out and if biofuels are expensive then the era of the large aviation industry may end. Air travel will still exist but it could once again be reserved to only the very rich. Travel by bus, train and boat may once again become the norm for us normies.
A Soft Landing?
The conventional oil sources will run out first leaving unconventional sources like Canada's oil sands and Venezuala's oil sands as the critical bridge to a post oil future.
These are both huge deposits and a massive build-out of nuclear plants to power the oil sand refinement facilities might have to be the medium term technological solution to keep society running until the alternative technologies are developed and made economical.
Closing Words
When the fossil fuels run out, our advanced technological society will likely be able to survive however it seems that large changes in our living arrangements and transportation habit will be needed.
The era of personal transportation will be over, cities will become more dense and more walkable, many forms of electric powered vehicles will become the norm, liquid fuel powered vehicles might be limited to critical uses only.
The post oil era won't be a disaster but it will definitely be a big change.
Thank you for reading my post.
Post Sources
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert_peak_theory
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M._King_Hubbert
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diesel_fuel
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biofuel
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carboniferous
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car
https://www.marineinsight.com/green-shipping/top-7-green-ship-concepts-using-wind-energy/