In many races you will find horses who recently competed against each other and who are now racing against each other again. The steward will often add a few pounds to ones who did better and take a pound or two off those who didn't race as well. I've often heard punters at the track say sarcastically, "These horse just take turns winning." They mean a group of horses who often race against each other do seem to each get to win.
But how well do those same handicappers keep track of form cycles and weights that are assigned? A horse that finished within two lengths of the winner in its last race was as good as the winner, especially if they trade a few pounds in their next race. A couple of lengths in a horse race means very little.
The handicapping process means looking at those horses who raced against each other and determining if the weight allowances in today's race will affect the outcome. Add the occasional jockey or equipment change and post positions and you have a puzzle that a good handicapper should be able to unravel often enough to show a profit.
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And yet the same people who are critical and suspicious of cheating are too lazy or uninformed, to make the adjustments and come up with a winner. If you can find a race where most of the field has recently competed against each other, do the math and compare weights and lengths, you will soon find a new appreciation for just how important a few pounds is on a tired horse when a photo and the length of a nose is all that separates the winner from the place horse.
