Hey Y'all!
I'm been wanting to write this post for a bit... but last time I tried, I got side tracked and had too much fun to get back on topic.
So this image, which you might recall me using last time, is actually more relevant to today's post, because that's what it was originally designed for...
Thanks to 
We had an initial spike in production to create enough Midnight Potions for the Conclave Arcana launch, followed by a return to a more stable pattern.
So currently: we are producing 1.72 Million Aura per day, and we've stockpiled 86 Million.
And at this rate, we produce another 50 Million Aura every 30 days,
That's a lot of Aura!
As you may have noticed, there is no Consumption data for Aura on the Land Stats page.
I suppose our friend Beaker could try to build one, by logging all the crafting operations on chain, but since Aura is used "on demand" in an instantaneous crafting process, it wouldn't be too meaningful - crafting volume is highly volatile, changing drastically from day to day and week to week, depending on demand spikes for Aura's end products
So instead, let's look it a different way.
Last time we spoke about all the current uses for Aura:
Unlike most land-based consumption, these crafted products are all "splurge" or "event-based" consumption items.
So we can't just look at the daily figure and multiply that by 365 to annualize it - we need to do some forward-looking analysis.
Be warned, there's some math ahead. And we'll also have to make some assumptions too.
Sorry (not sorry)
So we use Midnight Potions to get black foils. Everyone loves black foils right?
Each Midnight Potion costs 40 Aura.
According to the very excellent pack data from Elmo Burns we have opened nearly 525,000 packs:
| Pack Type | Opened | Burned | Held by DAO | Assumed Potion Use | Estimated Potions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 231,948 | 1,476,408 | 129,634 | 20% | 231,948 potions |
| Alchemy | 141,280 | 201,819 | 22,224 | 100% | 706,400 potions |
| Legendary | 20,167 | 150,019 | 13,307 | 100% | 100,835 potions |
| Packs with Potions | 393,395 | 1,828,246 | 165,165 | --- | 1,039,183 potions |
| Starter Packs | 131,104 | --- | --- | --- | 0 potions |
| Total Packs | 524,499 | 1,828,246 | 165,165 | --- | 1,039,183 potions |
So our estimate suggests that since the launch of Conclave Arcana, we have used just over 1 Million Midnight potions on pack openings.
So for all the currently opened packs from CA's launch, it took around 40 Million Aura to create all those potions...
Our current stockpile is more than double that.
So let's just say we have pre-crafted the Midnight potions for the next set's presale!
Anyways, we said we were doing "forward-looking" analysis. So let's look forward.
Elmo Burns gives the pack sales for the last 30 days:
| Pack Type | Approx. Daily Sales | 30 Day Forecast | Estimated Monthly Potions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 150 | 4,500 | 4,500 potions |
| Alchemy | 150 | 4,500 | 22,500 potions |
| Legendary | 10 | 300 | 1,500 potions |
So let's assume that's a reasonable expectation for 30 day period. 28,500 potions = 1,240,00 AURA needed per 30 days
(You will see this 30 day period pop up again)
Conflicts!
Each conflict lasts 30 days.
Right now we are approaching the end of the first conflict.
So far there are 2.85 Million chances, with nearly 4 days to go. Looks like the ending number could be around 3.25 Million chances.
Each chance has 0.125% of getting a card - so let's say 4,100 Zyrx cards are minted.
I'm going to make YET ANOTHER ASSUMPTION that people want black foil Zyrx even more than they want regular Zyrx.
Let's assume EVERYONE USES MIDNIGHT POTIONS!
That's going to take 205,000 Midnight potions.
Which needs 8.2 Million AURA for the conflict cycle.
Zyrx isn't just gonna drink Aura potions.... He's also going to crush a lot of wagons!
Each card needs a wagon, so 4,100 wagon kits!
Wagon kits needs 2500 Aura each, so that's pretty straightforward math - 10.25 Million AURA for wagons.
Fortune tickets are new. So far we've used them for the Pickle Party, averaging around 500 tickets per day.
15,000 tickets per 30 days.
Each ticket needs 200 AURA - so that's 3 Million AURA for 30 days.
We have more raffles coming. I don't know how often they will be.
Tashoshi has 10 days of raffles. Will she use more in 10 than Yaba's pickle in 30? Who's to say?
So let's maybe guesstimate: maybe people really want those cards... could they burn up 10 Million AURA?
That would be 5000 Fortune Tickets per day (since they are 10 tickets per entry, that's 500 entries)
That card is FIRE so I won't say it's not possible. (Good luck rafflers!)
This one is the real unknown.
We have 20 days of Black Foil Arcane Pickle auctions, and each auction mark needs 1000 AURA.
I'm not going to speculate too much on the auctions. Black Foil Arcanes are mega rare but hard to value.
Suffice it to say, people are gonna be bidding... however, unlike raffles - only the winner's Auction Marks are burned.
The rest of the bidders get their Marks back and can bid again without more crafting.
Personally, this is the least interesting use of Aura to me, but other may feel differently.
So I'm gonna just leave this as a gaping unknown.
Please share in the comments if you have any predictions for Auction Marks?
So like we said earlier, we have 50 Million AURA being crafted every 30 days.
Consumption looks like this:
So, assuming we can repeat these every month - that means 32.6 Million AURA used (not including Auction Marks).
At this stage, AURA production is critically important to the land economy because it's the final output. So we don't want to let this get overproduced. But right now it seems we are only consuming 2/3rds of the AURA we produce - and stockpiling the rest.
I'd like AURA production to struggle to keep up with consumption!
That's how we drive DEC/SPS scarcity and land utilization!
