07/01/2019/10:00CET
Lets see how the trade is playing out. Remember there is real money behind this trade and I am riding it with all its emotional swings. So let's take a look how it is going.
I want to also point out that I am not a professional trader, but I am someone who despises doing things half arsed. I am definitely one more prone to over analysis rather than under. This blog is more of a diary to myself than some attempt at fame. So these posts may be better called the Anatomy of a crypto trade.
For the previous posts that will give this post context see Trading 101 - how to find a swing trade opportunity P1,P2,P3
And before I go on I want to put a shout out to 
So let's not put it off any more and take a look at the daily chart.
What has happened since the last trade update?
- We have bounced quite strongly off the ascending support line. It now has 3-4 defined touch points. I have darkened this line following my chart drawing convention. (see P3 where I mention this)
- The bounce was so strong that it broke through the top of the wedge I started drawing. This trend line has been slightly lightened. I still think it could be in play though so I keep it alive.
- Notice that yesterday's candle happened right on the intersection of the 21dema, 50sma and our ascending trend line. Interesting.
- So price action is now above 2 important indicators. The last time this happened on the daily is back in early Nov18' before the big dump and break of the 6k market structure. Could this have some portentous significance?
- The continued lack of volume tempers my enthusiasm for this rally though.
I want to show you the hourly to reiterate my lack of enthusiasm.
- Almost all of that beautiful daily candle formed in the space of 1 hour. In fact, the 15 min chart looks much the same! leading me to think that odds are this was a pump. So, if this was in fact a whale pump. That means odds are there will be a whale dump coming soon.
Macro TA indicates a bias toward more weakness rather than strength at this point in time. My thinking is a retest of the low 3k levels is more likely than rallying up up and away from the bottom. Take a look at the weekly chart...
The trade
Now I will show you the hourly with my P&L trade zones highlighted
- So late last night I set of 2 trades. One was a stop loss at 4020 and the other was a profit take at 4540. About 2/3 and 1/3 of my capital respectively. The stop loss got triggered.
- Only about 25% of the original capital of this trade is left on the table
- There have been 2 in-out trades during this overall trade and both have been modestly in the green, so, without doing the math, I am up about 2-3% assuming break even on the capital that is still riding the trade.
- I will be upping the stop loss level on the remainder of the capital today to between 3900-3950.
- But first a coffee ;-)
p.s. Shit, even as I write this post, the price precipitously sinks. I may need to set the stop loss and then coffee :-(
As always guys, leave comments, have fun and trade safe.