14/08/2018/07:30CET
Guys - I am sad to say it but our bull case has pretty much been invalidated.
We had to hold the 3rd rally off the base support to say we were safe, but we broke through it again and trade at press time at 5985 usd.
All this happened about 3 hours ago!
We were trading in the 6200 range when POW, we were hit with a huge sell order and #btc fell over and visited 5858 usd.
We have clawed our way out of this, but this is the trigger for me to act.
First the daily chart, and then the hourly...
btcusd 1d -[bitfinex]
btcusd 1h -[bitfinex]
This is when cool heads must prevail. The market does what it does, if we want to play in it, we need to accept this.
What is important for us is to read the market and act in the most profitable (or least unprofitable) way.
I mentioned a few times in previous posts that it would be wise to have a plan if support does not hold.
Developing such plans is important in trading so that when a trigger is reached, you have an action plan.
You can execute this plan with the least emotion and the most efficiency.
Actions
So what is my plan you may ask?
This latest flush has triggered my escape plan. I am unwinding my altcoin positions irrespective of losses.
Some of them I unwind into BTC and some into USD or USDT. Those that I unwind into BTC will then be sold into USD/USDT.
The end goal is to take most/all speculative capital out of crypto. But I plan to leave the capital in fiat on exchange ready to act.
What do I see as the next months ahead?
In my last post I showed the comparison of our 20k rally and subsequent bear market, to that of 2013.
For me with TA eyes, the pattern comparison is clear. We had to hold this last rally to invalidate the extended bear market scenario. But we could not. The reason is irrelevant.
The protracted market of 2015 (I lived through it) was painful for hodlers. It was a stamina test.
BUT, if you had cash on the sides, a strategy could have been used to swing the market and make a lot of money.
I will share a last chart with you. The BTC dominance
BTC dominance had shot up past the 50% mark
Also the overall market cap stands at 191 bill at press time.
This tells me that the altcoin flush is going to be much harder than we anticipated.
BTC will hold the best out of this in my opinion.
Many alts will go to ZERO in the next month or 2.
Good and bad projects alike will not be spared. It will be a liquidity crisis.
Ethereum will be pushed to the very limit as well since it is so intrinsically tied to all these alts. (Almost all alt project raised capital in Ether. i.e. they can only sell Ether to cover their expenses. Selling into an intrinsically weak market will beget more selling and less buying)
I think you get the picture here.
I will stop here guys on a final note: stay cool and figure out a strategy and execute it. This is the way to trade and make money.
Let me know how you are feeling in the comments, I try as much as I can to trade without emotion but we can commiserate together in the comments section.