25/08/2018/19:40CET
Some very positive market action has the bulls stamping the ground ready to take off. But is this it, or is this another fake rally. Let's take a look...
At press time btc trades at 6733 usd and sit on a +5% gain in the last 3 days.
We are now over our 21dema and 3% away from the 50 and 100 dema indicators.
The 50 dema is also no longer showing a negative bias and is trending horizontally.
All eyes are on btc to straddle the 7k level. This may have the effect of creating a positive feedback loop that the bulls are hoping for to get the buying pressure to ramp up.
Volumes are slowly starting to trend upwards as well. A favourable indicator for a short term continuation of this trend.
Lets take a look at the chart now...
3 days ago I posted that my 21dema strategy in #btc got triggered. But then there was a sharp drop again that had my emotional side coming to the fore again making me question my strategy. Patience is one of the most important skills to learn in trading and my patience has paid off as btc is now in the green for my trade and also has closed above the 21dema and continues to trend upward.
As of about 2 days ago, we started to see some strong bounces from bottoms in the altcoin space as bitcoin started to show some resilience to the latest bottoming out. The same bottoming that represented some quiet dire technical indicators.
And the Alts...
Some alts have attracted my attention in the last 36 hours. Lets take a look at them...
ICXBTC 1D
#Icon has been on a tear of the last days. Personally I was waiting for a close on top of the 21dema which we look like we will have today. This is my buy trigger.
SUBBTC 1D
Now this is a tear. Substratum is coming up to some interesting announcements next week so this may be the catalyst for this rally. Of the last few hours, seems #SUB is running out of a little steam but I think there could be much more to this rally.
XMRBTC 1D
#Monero is having a double bottom of its long term trend line. Monero has developed a powerfull market structure support line, and it has a habit of bouncing very hard off this line.
Take a look at this longer term chart to see what I mean...
LSKBTC 1D
Already running for a few days, I missed this one so I wait to see if there is a cool off seeing as this rally has already gained 80% in under a week. Feel like the good ole days of the altcoin bull run.
VETBTC 1D
#VeChain data is now split when it got renamed from the ticker #VEN to #VET. We can see the 21dema is now way underneath price action. VeChain has had the largest bounce so far from the more reputable alts with +106% in the last 11 days. I think VET is too hot to buy right now so I wait for a cool off before considering a position.
WAVESBTC 1D
#Waves, another platform coin is also getting some love. It also triggered my 21 dema strategy a few days ago.
And for a last coin we have Zilliqa
ZILBTC 1D
We can see that Zilliqa is also about to trigger the 21dema strategy buyin.
So how do we read this price action?
It definitely looks positive, but we have been here before, and we have been burnt by the sharp sells that can happen rather suddenly.
I am taking new positions in the altcoin market but I am also playing it safe with stop loss trades.
Geopolitics
Cryptos do not exist in a vacuum. I have stated that this blog is all about technical analysis and it stillis, but I thought to venture out of this zone to venture a few comments on macro economics and geopolitics.
Russiagate
Seems that there is plenty enough noise around the political circus that is Russiagate and Trump, that the general populous is well distracted from truly monumental events. Historically such distractions have been times that major displacements in macro economics and geopolitics occur.
EM credit crisis
A growing list of countries such as Turkey, Brazil, and a raft of other countries are reeling from the ascending USD and their own crashing currencies. Loans denominated in USD are getting hard to pay back and as the US Fed starts quantitative tightening, i.e. removing USD from circulation, the remaining US currency is being chased by more and more players.
De Dollarisation
Probably the elephant in the room here is the accelerating pace of countries from Russia, to Venezuela, and Iran abandoning the USD outright. Eventhough these few countries are more advanced on this course, countries like China and India, and even Germany have started talking and acting on a similar paths.
It is becoming clear that the global banking elite are becoming comfortable with letting the USD die an ignominious death if it furthers their goals.
OBOR
The One Belt One Road project started by China and adopted enthusiastically be a whole raft of countries in the greater Asia region is becoming more and more real with each passing month. It is somewhat a zero sum game that as this ambitious project gains more and more steam, the influence and clout of the US will diminish. This waning will only be accelerated by the bombasticism of Trump.
My 2 cents worth
For some time I have come to the conclusion that the mega trends in macro-economics and geopolitics are trending toward a pivotal moment. Their individual trajectories are not sustainable, nor can they continue for much longer the way they are.
History contains examples of such upheavals in humanity. Typically there is a lot of chaos and death, and out the other side come the elites with more consolidated power.
But the middle layers of society gets a big shakeup. Former winners are the new losers, and visa-versa.
The most important thing for surviving this is to be aware it is happening. Just with this small advantage, you are ahead of 95% of the pack.
Will be interesting to live through it.