16/04/2019/09:00CET
Bitcoin is showing some confused sideways action. Are we going higher or lower from here? Lets take a look at the charts and see...
BTCUSD Daily on Bitstamp
- Trading at 5068usd at press time.
- Yesterday we got spooked out of our ascending channel.
- Volumes look interesting. Check out the thin trade the day before out test of 5350 - and than BAM! Big red flag. This is a classic doji candle signalling reversal of short term trend.
- interestingly we have found support and bounced off a long term trend line that was in formation since the start of feb 2018. Let's take a look at a larger time scale to see this...
BTCUSD Daily on Bitstamp
- Yeah, this is the descending floor we all looked at so closely all the way through 2018, and in particular the last stretch of 6k bouncing before the floor fell out from under us in december.
- If we fall through this support, then the chart will look like a long term wedge converging at mid July 2019 and 4660usd for bitcoin.
Prognosis
- Bulls would like to see a retest of 6k. This is obvious. This support is well tested throughout 2018. If we reach this level, expect a pullback. Probabilities certainly lean toward this outcome.
- Bears still talk of retests of the lows, or somewhere thereabouts. Are they just wishfully thinking that another chance, just one last one, will come along and allow then to stack up? Wishful thinking is not a trading strategy!
- The odds of higher or lower at this point is very even. In such an environment, it only takes one whale to swish his tail and nudge the entire market complex either into the cave with the bear or out into the ring with the bull.
- Volumes will have to pick up if we are to challenge 6k.
- I lean toward sitting on cash and waiting for a buying opportunity to arise around the 4500 levels. Little flash crashes are known to happen in crypto markets giving those that dip buy a nice short term profitable pump.
As always guys, leave comments, have fun and trade safe.