31/03/2019/21:00CET
As predicted, #btc has staged a challenge to the 4110 level, our next major resistance. So lets take a look at the charts and see whats next...
BTCUSD Daily on Bitstamp
- Trading at 4109usd at press time.
- Had a powerful bounce off the ascending trend line on Friday, the day after the last post. A move we anticipated see post
- Saturdays candle is a green doji which may portent a pull back from resistance we are currently testing.
- In fact looks that if we do not have a definitive move in the last 3 hours of european trading, we will form a second Doji albeit a shorter one. (Doji's signify an equilibrium between bears and bulls and can portend a trend reversal).
- Volumes both yesterday and today are more subdued.
- We are north of the 21DEMA indicator, this on its own is a postitive trend indicator, but...
- We have been on a bull trend for the last weeks so, combined with the resistance at this price, could be time for a breather.
- We are on top of our 21dema, 50sma and 100sma guys. Also all three of these indicators is stacked bullishly. We have not been here since mid Jan when the 21dema finally broke the 50sma.
Readjust of trend lines
- I have abandoned the descending channel since I think it is now defunct.
- Now I see a rising wedge albeit with a descending upper boundary.
- The lower boundary I have adjusted somewhat.
- See how with these lines we are right at the coincidence of the 4110 resistance and the trend line.
- If we oscillate in this wedge over the next 3 weeks, this will bring us to 4k at the intersection.
- This wedge leans the odds to a pull back to the 3900-3950 levels in the next days.
What do I expect?
- Odds favour a pull back in price action at this level.
- Maybe to find and confirm sum support at 3975 (21dema), or lower wedge at 3900-3950, or 3860 (50sma)
- Off course we may not be too fussed this time by the resistance at 4110, in which case 4350-4400 is the next resistance, being the level we bounce back up to following our fall from 6k.
Retest of lows or not?
BTCUSD Weekly log chart on Bitstamp
- 200sma on a weekly time frame has been a long term consistent support line. The grey shaded area represents this indicator.
- Bitstamp is one of the oldest BTCUSD native fiat pairs. This gives us the longest representation of the 200week indicator set.
- When retest of 3100 were being thrown around, this indicator was at...., you guessed it, 3100!
- Now it has moved up to 3440usd.
- Can we retest 3100? sure!
- Is it likely? less and less so as we hover or rise at these price levels.
Strategy
- If you have done your homework and think #btc and cryptos are a good investment, given the current prevaling artificial overpricing of tradition equities and other asset classes, then a dollar cost averaging strategy from here is not a bad option for the starter.
- BTD (buy the dip) is another option for a more active trader. One who can watch the market closer and knows how limit orders work
- Whatever you do, I advise stop losses at the 200 weekly moving average levels to protect yourself from a break down to sub 3k levels.
As always guys, leave comments, have fun and trade safe.