06/04/2019/20:00CET
#Bitcoin is showing resilience and holding fast after this large up spike. Will it retrace back down or not? This is a question we comb through TA feedback and try to answer. Let's take a look at the charts to see where we are right now.
BTCUSD hourly on Bitstamp
- Trading at 5146usd at press time
- We have seen an attempt at a retest of the recent highs but got rejected at the short term ascending channel boundary
- When looking at the daily, volumes are starting to pick up.
- On the hourly all the moving averages are stacked properly - bullish for the day trader and short term swing trader, but this kind of trading has been brutal in the last months.
We take a peek at the hourly here, but it is not such a good time frame to observe. Daily, weekly and monthly are more important when trying to identify odds that the bull market is back on - and that is what most of us are looking for.
BTCUSD Monthly on Bitstamp
- This is the chart that is interesting most long term swing traders and investors.
- Here we see a challenge to the 21 month exponential moving averages
- We bounced off this indicator as support all the way through June 2018 till November 2018 - now we are challenging it
- It sits are 5233usd at press time.
Seems the more level headed of analysis that publish on youtube and other forums still hold the belief that odds are still favouring a retest of the low 3k level. Their justification seems to center around this 21 mth EMA indicator.
This is the period in historic price action they point at as indicator of a retest of the 3k lows. See how we bounce off the 21 mth EMA and then go back down to retest the lows following the bull run of 2013.
Looking closer at this point in history, the low before this event was 152usd and the retest of the low after the rejection at the 21 mth EMA only brought it back down to 198usd handle.
That is 30% above the first low.
In today's context this would be the first low of 3122 and a retest only going down to 4050 handle. Hmmm
I always get a feeling I stretch the credibility of TA a little to far when I do such calculations, but then again I see other professionals reading even more out of the "tea leaves".
I add this in just as food for thought.
I have buy orders stacked starting at 4000 and going down to 3000, just in case of a flash crash.
As always guys, leave comments, have fun and trade safe.
Disclaimer: This post is not financial advice. Before investing any funds do your own research and make your own decisions. Cryptocurrencies are highly speculative.
And finally: Do not invest money you are not comfortable losing.
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If history would repeat then it would not decend all the way down. In 2013