Trump aboard the AF1: "There is no oil, no money, nothing" for Cuba

"Cuba is right now a failed state, and they don't even have fuel for planes to take off. They're blocking their own runway. We are talking to Cuba right now, and they should absolutely make a deal because it is a humanitarian threat," Trump said this Monday evening aboard Air Force One. "[There is] an embargo, there is no oil, no money, nothing" for Cuba, he reaffirmed. Again, I find it quite cynical that Trump refers to Cuba potentially becoming a "humanitarian threat" when his government is directly inducing the creation of that scenario.

It is obvious that the oil blockade is having notable effects on the volumes of socioeconomic activity here. However, I truly believe Washington must be asking itself—with great disbelief—how it is possible that even amidst this extraordinary reinforcement of the sanctions regime, there is still some level of movement on the Island.

In some way, it seems to me that the West Wing has made a miscalculation in assessing the capacity of the Cuban authorities. It may be that the latter are not very productive in generating sound growth-oriented policies, but they can produce good statecraft when it comes to managing a context of severe scarcity. In this latter scenario, they seem to feel like a fish in water. However, even though the Cuban political regime certainly does not seem so "ready to fall of its own volition," the social situation remains very critical, perhaps like never before, amidst extremely long power outages and runaway inflation.

The head of the Oval Office, heavily influenced in this case by Marco Rubio, risks being singled out as the direct cause of the severe worsening of living conditions here. Trump cannot sustain the costs of this negative development for long, although, for the moment, he seems to remain very firm in his purpose of forcing the Cuban government to reach an "agreement."

"The secretary-general is concerned about the situation [in Cuba], which is worsening," António Guterres' spokesperson said this Monday. Meanwhile, Spain committed to sending humanitarian aid, as Chile has also done in recent days. So far, Mexico is the only nation that has already provided concrete, material support to the Island following Trump's escalation, although it did make the decision to suspend its crude shipments.

Wait until November?

According to alleged anonymous Cuban sources cited by the US government media outlet Martí Noticias, which in itself is an interesting example of how unique US policy toward Cuba is, "[many] within the [Cuban] government believe they face a scenario similar to the pandemic." "They consider that they must resist at least until November, with the expectation that Trump will lose strength after the midterm elections," and "[they] also bet on a potential fracture between Rubio and Trump." If these musings are true, I don't find them very lucid, especially because while the House of Representatives seems within reach for the Democrats, the Senate would remain in Republican hands. Furthermore, this White House's response to congressional pressure on Venezuela was an open armed aggression to capture and extract de facto president Nicolás Maduro.

A Cuban 3J?

From Florida, the political pressure exerted by Cuban-origin representatives aims to cut off any supply line that Havana might consider or open for trying to break the oil siege, and, in line with the events in Venezuela on January 3rd, they promote that Raúl Castro and other actors be indicted. Based on the fact that Cuba is not Venezuela in terms of political-military commitment, I do not believe Castro would allow himself to be caught alive in the midst of a potential armed attack perpetrated by US political forces. Trump knows he is lying when he says "it wouldn't be a very difficult operation" to replicate a January 3rd in Havana. Then, this would be the only way to attack Cuba without going through Congress, presenting it, as in the case of Caracas, as a "law enforcement operation."

This is all for today´s report. All the pictures were taken today in Havana with my Alcatel 4063F.