The Latin American Report # 565

Ecuador

With approximately 4,620 reported homicides, the first semester of the current year closed as the most violent in the country's history, even when considering statistics for the second half of the year. This represents an unstoppable increase of nearly 50% compared to 2024, which speaks volumes about the effectiveness of the state of emergency declared early last year by President Daniel Noboa, which involved the deployment of the Armed Forces in internal security tasks. In the summer of 2023, the reach of organized crime was so extensive and sensitive that a presidential candidate, Fernando Villavicencio, was assassinated by seven Colombian gunmen upon leaving an election rally in the capital itself—one of the assassins died during the attack, and the remaining six were killed in prison.

Thus, the insecurity situation in the country has been alarming for quite some time, and there appear to be no signs of improvement in the immediate future. According to a report by the Ecuadorian Observatory of Organized Crime, affiliated with the Washington-based Pan American Development Foundation, cited by EFE, between January and July of this year, the average was 25.5 murders per day, or equivalently, more than 1 homicide per hour. If this pace does not stop, the Andean nation will end the year with a rate of 52 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants, the highest in its history and in the entire region.

The western coast, by far, is the hottest geographical zone in the so-called "internal armed conflict", especially because of its favorable conditions for drug trafficking. So, although Los Ríos province reflects the highest homicide rate per 100,000 inhabitants (61.32), four out of every ten murders occur in Guayas province, with Guayaquil as the very epicenter there, while Durán, a canton in the same province, has the highest homicide rate among those with more than 100,000 inhabitants.

Nearly nine out of every ten homicides were committed using firearms, representing a slight 5% increase. In another concerning statistic, homicides against children and adolescents increased by 68% compared to the first semester of last year, reaching a total of 504. The observatory estimates "a constant increase in intentional homicides until the end of the year associated with the atomization and fragmentation of criminal groups affecting the country."

This past Thursday, the Constitutional Court validated the first of seven questions that Noboa plans to put to a referendum later this year, concerning the elimination of the constitutional restriction—promoted by former President Daniel Correa, now a refugee in Belgium—that prohibits hosting foreign naval bases in the country, like the one the United States had in Manta. Noboa, along with Bukele and Milei, are, in my opinion, the three presidents in the region most closely connected to Donald Trump.

The head of Carondelet associates this potential step with an improvement in the country's capabilities to confront drug trafficking and organized crime in general. But, despite enjoying significant popular support, influential sectors of civil society have mobilized against this and other initiatives by Noboa—particularly targeting a major Milei-type public spending cut program tied to the Quito agreement with the top global lender. "The layoffs mean worsening living conditions for the country. We're talking about 5,000 families now, but estimates suggest it could reach 70,000 under the IMF's demands," said the president of the Andean nation's largest labor union yesterday.