Is Cuba, finally, "down for the count"? Not so fast

The potential end of the political regime that emerged, developed, and solidified in Cuba after the 1959 triumph of the revolutionary process led by the late Fidel Castro—who survived the aggressive policy of successive US administrations from Eisenhower to Obama—has been announced, unsuccessfully, many times, even through music. One day, of course, it could happen. Donald Trump is the latest on the list of prophets of the Cuban Revolution's apocalypse.

This is certainly the most critical moment for the country since the so-called "special period" that followed the collapse of the socialist bloc. The current situation embodies an accumulation of internal and external circumstances and measures—ultimately with a negative impact—whose genesis I place in 2019, during Trump's first administration. The targets were strategic: the fuel import process—with the designation of the companies in charge of that activity and the persecution of the tankers bringing crude to the Island—and tourism—by prohibiting transactions with entities under control of the Cuban military, suspending regular flights, and resuming a restrictive approach to the licenses that Obama had updated to facilitate individual travel by Americans.

Then came COVID-19, gross, sustained, and ultimately very costly errors in the economic-financial policy of the Cuban leadership, the opportunistic inaction of Biden, who basically implemented the policy inherited from the Trump administration—including the indefensible designation of Cuba as a State Sponsor of Terrorism—, and gradually the base power generation network began to collapse and become less and less reliable. The U.S. president now seems more determined to force the game by declaring a de facto oil blockade, which consists of tariff threats on the import into the United States of products from countries that dare to send crude to Cuba. But, again, it is important to remember, as I just mentioned, that since 2019 Cuba's acquisition of fuels has been an exceedingly complex process, which cannot be seen disconnected from the comprehensive sanctions regime Washington has applied to it for over 60 years.

For example, if tourism is targeted—Cuba is the only country where Americans are legally prohibited from doing plain and pure tourism—foreign currency income is limited. Furthermore, the country is heavily restricted in using the U.S. dollar in its international transactions, especially under the effects of its SST designation. In short, anyone who does not turn a blind eye and is clear about the role of the North American power in the world will understand how strongly the external factor operates against Havana, beyond, I repeat, the poor or rather reproachable statecraft of the island authorities.

The direct consequences have been devastating. We have been living from one power outage to another for over five years now, to which is added the almost total loss of the State's capacity to satisfy at least an initial, insufficient but critical, supply of basic goods for the population, and in general its capacity as a provider of goods and services at affordable prices as was always the tradition of the revolutionary project. The result of the latter is that private actors in the economy now have the leading voice in satisfying the population's needs, from rice to oil, but at prices unattainable for a large part of it. That is, it is not so much the lack of goods and services as it is the impossibility for many to match market prices with their meager incomes. In resume, people here are undoubtedly going through an indescribable hardship between the lack of electricity—which for many is now the normal state—and problems with transportation, eating, among other basic tasks.

And yet, it is very hasty to think that the country "is down for the count". I heard in a podcast an old and very manipulative journalist of Cuban origin say that, in fact, the political regime had already died, and so what it is being debated now is how its burial would be, metaphorically speaking. However, despite the fact that not a drop of Venezuelan oil has entered since last December, and no new shipments have been received from Mexico since early January, the country is far from hitting rock bottom in terms of socioeconomic activity. Even under these circumstances, the authorities have announced a contingency plan that does abruptly cut the volume of movement in many sectors, but is far from implying a state of total paralysis.

History, always a teacher, indicates that the Cuban case is unique in many ways vis-à-vis the United States. To our detriment, the way of seeing Cuba from Pennsylvania Avenue is very emotional and radical, the result of the accumulation of frustration at not having been able to overthrow a socialist regime located some 90 miles from the south of Florida. With Cuba, it is an all-or-nothing game. From this side, years under siege have forcibly installed a culture of resilience that is expressed in that capacity to, amid such a formidable political and economic attack, plan a way to remain connected to some defective but still working artificial respirator.

There is a false dilemma in all this discussion, introduced from the West Wing, based on the notion that the Cuban leadership must choose between watching us, the citizens, languish, and entering into some kind of deal with them. I do not believe that coercion gives rise to democracy or positive political development anywhere, regardless of how we characterize the political regime being attempted to be transformed or overthrown. I do not see the Cuban authorities modifying even slightly the political system. In this sense, I do not know what Trump would be comfortable with to reach an understanding in our case. For example, let no one be fooled by the Palm Beach mogul declaring victory because the Cuban government agrees "to buy American." There is nothing more desired here than to buy from the United States, which is our natural market for both importing and exporting. Or because certain so-called political prisoners are released. Here, I repeat, only two colors are distinguished: white and black; this is not Venezuela. Knowing that he is already exerting all possible economic pressure, the only victory he could truly obtain would constitute a defeat: "going in and blasting the hell out of the place."

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Pink and white 👇

Oil first, democracy discussion (maybe) later. Interesting, Venezuela-related 👇