Pressure on the UK real estate market is growing

In the first week of July, British newspapers were full of alarming headlines: "There was a" crash "on the real estate market. House prices are falling into the basement. Follow the Brexit the real estate bubble?

The London real estate market in particular is highly competitive in the UK. Even small row houses like here in Notting Hill cost here easily a million pounds.

Anyone who speaks of a real estate bubble on the island means, above all, London. London home prices have risen by 68 percent over the past decade. Even 100 square meters of small, not too neat, terraced houses in the outskirts of the city cost a million times. Pounds, well-meaning - about 1.2 million euros.

Is this a completely decoupled rise, a hype - the core element of a bubble? No, most British real estate experts say, as Ashley Osborne, head of the British private real estate department at the Colliers International real estate group.

There is no building land

"The rising prices at the London home market can be explained by quite simply measurable things. Here and throughout the Kingdom prices are rising because there is a high demand, but little offer . "

There could be more living space only if more building land was declared. But this has hardly happened since the middle of the 1950s, as forest and meadows have to be touched on the outskirts of the city, says Professor Paul Cheshire of the London School of Economics.

"This is mainly due to our planning system, and there is hardly any new building land, so we have been seeing the green belt around the cities since the Green Belts were introduced."

The fear of the real estate bubble

However, although housing is scarce, housing prices fell for the first time in two years in March. And the trend seems to continue. And promptly the fear is that the market for a long time could have been artificially inflated by speculators. Many newspapers cite the real estate investigator Paul Cheshire. He feels unjustly received.

"This is an exaggeration, and we are moving toward a downward correction, especially because the reallers are falling.

Many Britons, although earning the same amount as a year ago, are de facto much less in their pocket because the pound has been much less valuable since the Brexit vote and at the same time the cost of living increases. This leads to a drop in prices. But still Londoners would not have to sell their apartments below value, says Ashley Osborne.

"What you can see right now is that when potential vendors do not get the price they want, they simply take the objects back from the market and say," We do not sell, we keep our property, they do not have so much pressure . "

Immigration is still high

And the brexite? The vote has weakened the pound and corrected the market down. But could the UK's exit from the EU ultimately lead home prices down? Shortly after the vote, some bank analysts still believed that the Brexit could be the "Black Swan", the unexpected and rare event that caused an avalanche that could lead prices to the ground. Today, many experts are leaving.

Ashley Osborne: "The reality is that immigration to the UK, especially to London, is high, and it is expected to continue, whether it is a hard or soft brexite, even if no one can migrate from Europe Demand for housing from outside the EU is still great. "

Simon Rubinsohn, Chief Economist of the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors, the estate association of the real estate appraisers, finds a national bladder closest to the country in 2013. At that time, the British surveyed by the Royal Institute expected the value of their properties to increase by 40 percent within five years - completely unrealistic.

A bit of cooling

In the meantime the British expect a value increase of only 15 percent within five years. The property analyst Kate Faulkner from Nottingham warns against the crash. Finally London gets what it takes - a bit of cooling, a necessary correction of the real estate market.

"As long as people have confidence in the market and do not stop buying houses for the summer, because everyone is talking about a crash, we will simply experience a natural drop in prices - which is good."

So: Finally the British real estate market finally gets, especially London's home market, what he needs a long time: a bit of cooling. That the prices just drop a little is a necessary correction. But there is no bubble here, and therefore no one can burst.