Is the post halving dip already priced in?

Everyone wants to know what is going to happen to the price of bitcoin with this next halving, and to figure that out we should probably look to the past.

The past doesn't always repeat, but it does often rhyme.

That being said, the liquidity event emanating from the coronavirus and subsequent shutdowns, likely changed things quite a bit from what "likely" would have happened.

Which means...

Past patterns more than likely go out the window, at least in the short term.

That being said, it still fun to look back and see what happened the last time we had a fundamental event, like a block reward halving, and see what impacts it had on the price.

So, here we go...

As of today, we are 22 days out from the next block reward halving.

Which would put us here on last year's chart:

(Source: https://twitter.com/search?q=bitcoin%20halving&src=typed_query&f=live)

As you can see there was not a lot of bullish price action from now until several months post halving.

If we hadn't had this whole liquidity event I would expect similar price action to happen again, and it still might.

Going off of how BCH and BSV traded after they had their block reward halvings, seeing weakness in bitcoin immediately following the halving seems like a pretty good probability.

However...

And this is a big however...

We just had a massive liquidity event that pushed prices down from around that $9k-$10k area all the way down to $3.8k.

Those that were over-leveraged, got crushed.

Those that needed money, got out.

Those that just plain panicked, are gone.

So, who is left to sell?

We may have some miners forced to sell what they can in order to operate as long as possible, but other than that, the majority of the "weak hands" are probably already out.

That doesn't mean this same pattern can't repeat, it certainly can, but seeing what we already saw in terms of a correction, it's very possible we don't see much of a dip post halving.

Judging by how much bitcoin dipped after the last halving, even a 10% dip or so from current levels would be considered good news for bulls.

I for one would love to see another dip down to about $4k so I could scoop up everything I could before the bull run is likely to begin, but I am starting to think I may not get that chance.

Stay informed my friends.

-Doc