One thing I told myself is never to look at most of the technical analysis I've been on the Twitter, most time they're either too historical or lacks touch with reality.
My new philosophy is that when a coin actually pumps, that's it's bull run, and the only difference here would be BTC. I still speculate that BTC is going to hit 45 to 50k and then the bottom will be in, but I'm not sure how fast this will happen, but I expect the bottom at 45k BTC, and worse still.
We get 35 to 40k and no more. It might happen by the end of the year or by the end of next year, but it'll happen no later than end of next year and then we get the BTC halving early 2028. This will be the window to actually buy BTC; 3 to 4 month before the BTC halving.
This means in 23 months time, the window will open to buy BTC, because by then 100% the bottom will be in and rearing to pump. Think the idea would be to sell your alt bags, and buy BTC, hold till after the halving then sell and make x2 or x3, buy back your alts and then hold the remaining profits or better still just hold till late 2028.
I kind of think this cycle was a bit stunted for BTC and I blame this on the irrationality of Donald Trump. In the previous cycle we had BTC easily doing a x3 from the 2017 cycle to put BTC at 69k ATH, however in 2025, we barely saw this x3, we only got a x2 which probably affected alts, and why they didn't pump as much.
This is my theory, and since this cycle might differ to some extent, I think BTC can do that x3 from the 121k it topped to our it at just over 300k, however, this will also depend on when the the bottom will be in.
However, all these are my speculative analysis. There's a new theory that the cycle is not over and we'd still pump in Q2, Q3 or 4, but all these are just speculation.
I like to believe the 4 years cycle is still in place, and hence we're heading straight in a bear market (already started) but if the cycle has decided to be a bit dynamic and changed windows, it's like this theory might be right, and 2026 sees BTC still gallop to 180k, or perhaps alts explodes while BTC just another x2 from here.
What makes the most sense is that BTC barely did a x3 and alts barely pumped and now we're in a bear cycle. I like to be realistic. Most of the TAAs I've seen for 2 years straight has been absolute rubbish, so instead I think the market analysis based on historic events looks to be more correct.
However if the market goes like "you know what, I think imma just pump and change" then it'll be good news. I still think that is not the end. You know how a movie ends abruptly without giving you the thrills? That's how I think, I still feel like something might still play out this year, I don't know. However, I think we all know the drill: hope for the best but expect the worse
What do you think? Do you still think there'll be a surprise for crypto this year?
