In the eighth chapter of The Next Fifty Years in Space Patrick Moore turns his attention to the colonization of the planet Mars. Writing in 1975, he is gazing into his crystal ball and making predictions that he does not think will be fulfilled until 2020 at the earliest. Like his predictions about the establishment of a permanent base on the Moon, those concerning the Red Planet have not stood the test of time. This is perhaps not surprising, as Mars is just as hostile to human life as the barren surface of the Moon:
Actually, much of what I have already said about the Lunar Base applies with equal force to any research station on Mars, because the atmosphere is quite useless for breathing and may be more or less useless as a screen against radiations. The ground pressure is nowhere more than 10 millibars, and over most of the planet it is less. This is equivalent to what we normally call a laboratory vacuum, and we must reluctantly abandon any ideas about “adapting ourselves” and strolling out during Martian midday with no extra protection other than an oxygen mask. Full pressure-suits will be needed all the time, and in this respect Mars is just as hostile as the Moon, so that astronauts who go there will always have to live under highly artificial conditions. ―Moore 109
Before turning to the serious matter of colonization, Moore briefly considers and rejects the possibility of terraforming Mars:
En passant, this seems the moment to refer briefly to the attractive idea of providing Mars with an atmosphere which would be of real value to us. I will not say much, because there is not the remotest prospect of our being able to do anything of the kind within the next fifty years, and I personally doubt whether it will be done within the next fifty centuries, if at all. In view of the near-vacuum conditions, we are starting practically from scratch; and even if we could somehow establish a dense, Earth-type atmosphere, the low escape velocity (3.1 miles per second) would mean constant leakage into space. ―Moore 109–110
The predictions Moore makes in this chapter rest upon the assumption that the inefficient chemical propellants that were still being used in the 1970’s would be soon superseded by nuclear rockets:
We know that chemically-powered rockets will not take men to Mars. A journey there would take months; add a similar time for coming home, plus a long delay on the planet before it and the Earth were suitably placed for the return trip, and the pioneers would be faced with a total absence of more than two years. The so-called minor problems, such as food and water supply, would become anything but minor ... Once well away in interplanetary space, there can be no turning back until the mission has been completed.
No: we must have better means of travel, and things brings us back to the nuclear rockets which will presumably be developed during the 1980s. Once they have been thoroughly tested and proved to be both efficient and reliable, Mars will come within range. Until then, it will not. ―Moore 110
It is now 2026 and we are still waiting for these nuclear rockets.
Mars
Moore’s most optimistic timeline foresaw the establishment of a permanent base on Mars by no earlier than 2020―and even that prediction came with a warning:
Optimists claim that with steady, more or less trouble-free progress in research it should be technically possible to dispatch a Martian expedition by 1990; I will not demur; but I will nevertheless be very surprised if there are any attempts before the end of our century, and my own estimated date is around 2020 ...
The main question, then, will be: Is there any hope of setting up a permanent base on Mars, and would it be worth while even if it could be done? I think that the answer, in each case, is “Yes”, but if there is any doubt about it the first expeditions will be delayed well beyond the next fifty years ...
Therefore, I am quite ready to look forward to the 2020 period, and speculate about the Martian Base which may be established. ―Moore 110–111
Moore suggests Elysium Planitia as an ideal location for the first Martian Base. He envisages a series of unmanned missions to deliver the necessary modules and supplies before any humans set foot on the Red Planet:
To complete the preliminary dumping process will take some time, and may last for several years. If started by 2015, all will be ready for the astronauts themselves by 2020. ―Moore 112
The size and scope of the manned part of the program will require multinational participation:
It is hardly likely that the first expedition will consist of one space-ship alone; there will be three, four or even more. We must allow for a minor fleet rather than solo vessel, which is yet another reason why the whole project will be so complicated and so expensive. If it is to be attempted at all, it must be international; no single nation could ever foot the bill. ―Moore 112
Despite his earlier caution, Moore can’t help speculating about the future prospects of Martian exploration:
Initially there will be only one Base, and this certainly takes us up to the end of the period between now and 2025. Later there will presumably be more, and travel between them will have to be either by ground transport or by rocket. The thin Martian atmosphere is useless so far as conventional aircraft are concerned; after all, not even our modern jet-liners can travel around at 100,000 feet, and at this height above the Earth the air-pressure is much greater than it is at the surface of Mars. ―Moore 112
Because of the difficulty of reaching Mars, even with nuclear rockets, the colony must be self-sufficient from Day 1. As Mars has a rotation period of 24 hours 37 minutes an axial tilt of 24°, and 670 Martian days (sols) in a year, Moore envisages the evolution of a Martian calendar, with twelve months: ten months of 55 sols and two of 56 sols:
... or there could be a system involving equal months and periodical Leap Years. No doubt a Martian World Calendar Society will eventually be formed to cope with the problem! ―Moore 113
Mars’s two tiny moons, Phobos and Deimos, are not forgotten:
I mention the dwarf moons here because there have been suggestions that they could be used as natural space-stations. It is not likely that they will be used as jumping-off points for Mars, but it is quite on the cards that communications stations will be set up on them at an early stage in the Martian venture ... Incidentally, it is not impossible that modified space-guns could be used for sending payloads of the non-fragile variety from one of the satellites down to Mars. ―Moore 114
Initially, the colonists’ time will be given over to exploration, scientific endeavours, and astronomical observations:
This, then, may be the scene on Mars by 2020. The towering volcanoes, the swarms of craters, the deep rift valleys and the dry riverbeds will have been explored, at least over a limited region of the planet; a thriving colony will be in existence, and home on Earth volunteers will be queueing up to take part in this tremendous venture. Mars, like the Earth, will be alive. ―Moore 114
But Moore warns his readers not to set great store by such predictions:
And yet ... remember, I say “may be”. I am only too well aware of the immense technical difficulties, to say nothing of finance, and we cannot yet be confident that a full-scale expedition will be worth while in view of what can be done by using automatic rocket probes. I believe that Mars will tempt us; but I cannot be sure, and we will not know definitely for several years yet. ―Moore 114–115
Moore concludes this chapter with a more distant look into a possible future:
The 2020 Base will be no more than a start, but it will be of more significance in the long run than anything on the Moon. It will mark the beginning of a new race of men who will come to regard Mars, not the Earth, as their home planet. Looking well ahead, say to 2500, I can picture Martian libraries in which there are vivid descriptions of the early trips which will seem as remote as the Crusades are to us of 1975. There will be Martians who are proud of tracing their ancestry back directly to one of the pioneers, just as Americans are proud of being able to trace their family trees back to the Pilgrim Fathers.
We may even doubt whether the two worlds will be united under one Government and one code of laws. They may well have gone their separate ways, and the low gravity of Mars, together with the other differences in environment, may make a Martian as easily distinguishable from an Earthman as is a Pakistani from a Briton. This takes us far beyond the period of my present speculations―but if it does happen in the way I suggest, historians will agree that it all began around the year A.D. 2020. ―Moore 115
And that’s a good a place to stop before the next stage of our journey.
References
- Patrick Moore, The Next Fifty Years in Space, With Drawings by Andrew Farmer, William Luscombe Publisher Limited, The Mitchell Beazley Group, Artists House, London (1976)
Image Credits
- The Next Fifty Years in Space: William Luscombe publisher Limited, Andrew Farmer (illustrator), foyled-again (photographer), Fair Use
- From Red Mars to Green Mars: © Daein Ballard (creator), Creative Commons License
- Artist’s Impression of a Nuclear Thermal Rocket Entering Martian Orbit: Pat Rawlings (artist), NASA/SAIC, Public Domain
- Elysium Planitia: © Kevin Gill (processor), Modeled using HiRiSE DTM, Ortho Imagery Data, gdal, ImageMagick, HiView, Autodesk Maya, and Adobe Photoshop : Source Data = ESP_028149_2085 : Creative Commons License
- Phobos: Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter, NASA/JPL-Caltech/University of Arizona, Public Domain
- An Artist’s Impression of a Martian Base: © Spongy101010 (creator), CC BY-SA 4.0
- Patrick Moore: Anonymous Photograph, Fair Use