In the ninth chapter of The Next Fifty Years in Space Patrick Moore looks beyond the next fifty years and speculates on the further exploration of the Solar System:
There are, of course, super-optimists who dream about exploring the system of Saturn and the gloomy, dimly-lit landscape of Pluto soon after the turn of the century, but I am not of their number. I have no doubt that all the solid-surfaced planets and satellites will be visited eventually, but certainly not in my lifetime, nor the lifetime of anyone now old enough to read this book.
Therefore I propose to be rather brief, and to do no more than indicate some of the eventual prospects. ―Moore 116
And brief he is: at just three pages, this is the shortest chapter in the book. He looks in turn at our prospects of visiting Venus, Mercury, the Asteroid Belt, and finally the Jovian and Saturnian Systems.
Venus
Venus is by far the most inhospitable of the rocky planets, and Moore is not very optimistic of our chances of reaching it:
I see no chance at all of men reaching Venus before 2025, or even 2125. Everything argues against it, and all exploration must be carried out by automatic vehicles, though even these have difficulty in surviving in this terrifyingly hostile environment. Indigenous life, as we know it, can be ruled out of court without further ado ...
The Planet of Love is a world to be viewed from a respectful distance. ―Moore 117
Manned flybys of Venus were planned by both NASA and the Soviet Union in the ’60’s and ’70’s, but nothing ever came of them.
Mercury
Moore is slightly more optimistic about the possibility of humans reaching Mercury:
Oddly enough, Mercury may be reached before Venus, even though it is much more distant and is no friendlier than the Moon ... there are sound scientific reasons for wanting to send men to Mercury, because the planet would be an ideal site for a solar observatory which would presumably have to be serviced periodically ... All the same, I do not believe that any astronaut will venture on to Mercury within the next fifty years. ―Moore 117
In 1967 NASA examined the feasibility of a manned mission to Mercury, but this is as far as the project ever got. The Soviet Union never even considered the possibility of such a mission.
The Asteroid Belt
Pessimism returns to the fore when Moore speculates about the prospects of either mining or colonizing any of the asteroids:
Fiction writers have made great play of their potential mineral wealth, but I have grave reservations about this, and in any case the cost of “mining” an asteroid and bringing the material home would be prohibitive ...
Robot stations on asteroids may be established before 2025, but that is as far as we can go ... Were I setting out to discuss the next five hundred years of space research, I would dwell longer among the asteroids; as things are, let us pass on. ―Moore 117
This pessimism, it transpires, was well founded. As of 2026, a few probes have touched down on some asteroids, but we are not even close to the possibility of establishing permanent “robot stations”. The Expanse, it seems, is destined to remain firmly in the realm of science-fiction for the foreseeable future.
The Giant Planets
Distance is the biggest hurdle to overcome if we wish to send humans to the outer planets.
Even with nuclear rockets of the type which should be perfected by 2025, the journeys will still be depressingly protracted ... astronauts travelling out beyond the orbit of Mars will be very much “on their own” without any hope of prompt rescue should things go wrong. And let us be realistic about one point: sooner or later there will be a tragedy in outer space. ―Moore 118
Moore envisages a fleet of exploratory vessels, rather than a single spacecraft with a small crew:
I suggest that the first manned expedition out to the further reaches of the Solar System will be a gigantic operation involving not only crew-ships, but also several large, unpiloted supply vessels which will stay with the main fleet. To try anything on a smaller scale would be to court disaster. ―Moore 118
Jupiter’s Galilean Moons and Saturn’s largest satellite Titan would be the obvious targets of any exploratory missions to the outer Solar System, but Moore does not think any such trips would be feasible until long after 2025. The last fifty years have done nothing to undermine this prediction.
Final Thoughts
Before taking his leave of the question of human exploration of the other planets, Moore cannot resist indulging in a little speculation:
I do have one idea in my mind which may prove to be valid in the end. Let us assume that we develop permanent colonies on Mars, and that a new technology arises there, naturally based on that of Earth but with suitable modifications. The colonists will become adapted to the lower gravity, and so they and their descendants should be better able to endure conditions of weightlessness or reduced g. It could be that these pioneers, rather than men from Earth, will be the first to go to Callisto, Ganymede or Titan―and eventually, no doubt, to the satellites of Uranus, the senior moon of Neptune, and the bitterly-cold and mysterious Pluto. I would not like to hazard when this will be. It might be practicable by the end of the 21st century, or even earlier, but the task of carrying our explorations out into the depths of the Solar System may be left to the “new Martians” ―Moore 119
In The Expanse, it’s the Belters―colonizers of the Asteroid Belt―who pioneer the exploration of the Outer Solar System, but this is much the same idea as Moore had in the ’70’s.
And that’s a good a place to stop before the next stage of our journey.
References
- Patrick Moore, The Next Fifty Years in Space, With Drawings by Andrew Farmer, William Luscombe Publisher Limited, The Mitchell Beazley Group, Artists House, London (1976)
Image Credits
- The Next Fifty Years in Space: William Luscombe publisher Limited, Andrew Farmer (illustrator), foyled-again (photographer), Fair Use
- An Artist’s Impression of the Surface of Venus: © Mark Garlick (illustrator), Science Photo Library, Getty Images : Fair Use
- Ceres Colony in The Expanse: © SyFy : Fair Use
- Patrick Moore: Anonymous Photograph, Fair Use