In the first six chapters of The Next Fifty Years in Space Patrick Moore restricted his predictions to the two decades between 1975 and 1995. From Chapter 7 on, however, he turns his attention to the following three decades. For the most part his predictions for 1975–1995 have held up well, but from here on his prognostications must become much less reliable. Moore is keenly aware of this possibility and he is careful to remind his readers of the speculative nature of his predictions:
Up to now I have been discussing programmes which have either been planned in detail or else are logical developments of them. When we come to discuss the future of man in space, there must inevitably be more in the way of speculation, but at least some vital facts have been firmly established. ―Moore 101
In Chapter 7, we return to the Moon to see what the post-Apollo era might have in store for our nearest neighbour. Moore opens this chapter with a quote from an interview he conducted with Neil Armstrong:
Question. “Do you think that in the foreseeable future it is going to be possible to set up scientific bases on the Moon, on a large scale?”
Answer. “I’m quite certain that we’ll have such bases in our lifetime. Somewhat like the Antarctic stations and similar scientific outposts; continually manned, although there’s certainly the problem of the environment, with the vacuum and the high and low temperatures of day and night. Still, in some ways it’s more hospitable than the Antarctic ...
That conversation took place on 16 November 1970, and was heard by millions of people inasmuch as it was broadcast on BBC television during a “Sky at Night” programme. I was the questioner; the man who answered was none other than Neil Armstrong―the first pioneer to step out on to the surface of the Moon, and whose opinions are not to be lightly set aside!
... The stage is set, and it would be a pessimist of the deepest dye who would question the logic of what he said. ―Moore 96 ... 101
Moore took a decidedly optimistic stance on the question of lunar bases, but he certainly underestimated the difficulties of living on the Moon:
... there is nothing harmful on the Moon itself ... the danger from meteorites falling on to the Moon and causing damage to any man-made structures there is very slight. Quite recently I read an excellent book which had been published in 1953, in which it was claimed that any Lunar Base would have to be built underground―because otherwise it would be soon battered to pieces by the steady cosmical bombardment. Of course, we cannot discount meteorite damage any more than we can on Earth; if the Siberian missile of 1908 had fallen upon a city instead of in frozen wasteland, the casualty list would have been horrifying. But meteorite falls likely to be harmful are probably very rare indeed, and it is significant that as yet no large fallen meteorites have been found on the Moon. One eminent astronomer-geologist, G. J. H. McCall, who―like myself―believes the main craters to be of internal origin, has even asked: ‘‘Where have all the meteorites gone?” ―Moore 101
Moore has completely overlooked the danger posed by micrometeoroids, tiny particles of rock less than a gram in mass. The Earth’s atmosphere protects the surface of the planet from the constant precipitation of these cosmic fragments, but the Moon, which has no atmosphere, is being constantly bombarded by these little projectiles. This is even acknowledged by a recent issue of BBC Sky at Night, a magazine created in 2005 to accompany Patrick Moore’s Sky at Night program:
The Moon is a death trap: These are the life-threatening dangers awaiting astronauts on the lunar surface
Micrometeorite impacts on the Moon are another source of concern.
Analysis using NASA’s Meteoroid Engineering Model suggests that a lunar base similar in size to the International Space Station would encounter between 15,000-23,000 impacts each year from particles ranging in size from millionths of a gram up to ten grams. ―Lawrence
The fact that there are no large meteorites on the surface of the Moon is not because the Moon isn’t regularly impacted by meteorites, but because the constant bombardment by micrometeoroids pulverizes all the larger meteorites.
Moore begins his prognostications by asking what the Soviet Union might be planning in response to the Apollo missions. This might be earmarked as the point in The Next Fifty Years in Space where Moore’s predictions begin to come off the rails:
As a start in my admittedly uncertain speculations, let us consider what the Russians may do―because there is always the chance that they will begin serious operations before 1990, which is probably the very earliest that the Americans will go back to the Moon.
Up to now the Soviet teams have concentrated upon robot exploration, and there is no doubt that their Lunokhods and recoverable Lunas have been technical triumphs. They have been less fortunate with their manned space research, though it is likely that they are fast overcoming the worst of their problems. When could they possibly start sending expeditions moonward? If they wanted to do so, they could begin by 1982 or thereabouts; and their first step might be to start dumping supplies at the selected site, which might well be one of the “mare” areas some way from the equator. The Mare Imbrium and the Mare Nubium are possibilities.
Supplies, unlike men, are expendable, and would provide excellent tests for the efficiency of the landing craft. A dozen or more vehicles would be sent, all coming down in the same area; they would carry supplies of all kinds, including power packs, elaborate radio equipment, and anything that might be needed in the way of constructional materials, together with medical kit. Once we find that all these are being dispatched, we may be fairly sure that Russian cosmonauts will follow.
The next step would be to send a reconnaissance crew. It is therefore quite on the cards that the first Russians on the Moon, unlike the first Americans, will not make a quick there-and-back trip, but will prepare for a more prolonged stay. ―Moore 102
Of course, none of this ever materialized. Luna 24, which placed a robotic probe in the Mare Crisium in 1976, was the last Russian mission to the Moon for forty-seven years. Its successor, Luna 25, was launched and 2023 and was unsuccessful. The probe crashed into the inner rim of a small crater, approximately 400 kilometers from its intended landing site.
Moore imagines what the ensuing lunar base would look like, with its laboratories, astronomical observatories, instruments for studying the nature of the Moon’s globe, medical centres in which insects and animals will both live and breed, and hydroponic gardens in which edible plants will be cultivated. He is well aware of the speculative nature of these remarks, and he adds a timely warning:
This, as I have stressed, is guesswork on my part, and it is equally likely that the Russians will not try to set up any Base before the Americans are ready to start again toward the early 1990s. I am merely saying what, in my view, might happen. If it did, then American progress toward the Moon would be speeded up―not because of any political pique, but simply because the Russian experiences would provide an immense amount of detailed information, which would be available whether the Kremlin approved or not. ―Moore 103
Turning to NASA, Moore’s predictions of an American program to establish a permanent presence on the Moon have fared no better than his predictions of a Soviet base.
Next let us turn back to the American programme, which is by no means settled as yet, but which should be very much to the fore by 1990. Here too we have the prospect of an initial Base formed from the lunar modules which have taken the astronauts to the Moon, and it may be that the first expedition scheduled for a long stay will number about a dozen members. If this is achieved by―say―1992, there ought to be a full-scale headquarters operating by 1995. And by 2000 we may see the first of the really elaborate Bases, possibly of the hemispherical form which so widely favoured by the much-derided but often far-seeing fiction writers of the days before the Space Age began. ―Moore 103–104
Since the end of the Apollo program in 1972, no human, American or otherwise, has set foot on the Lunar surface. This is something that Moore, writing in 1975, could not possibly have envisaged. From his perspective, the Moon was an ideal place for all sorts of scientific endeavors, and the successes of the 60’s and 70’s had seemingly put colonization within reach:
The lack of atmosphere, together with the reduced gravity, means that the research teams will be able to carry out experiments which are quite impossible on Earth. Moreover, the lunar surface is exposed to all the various radiations coming from space, and though this will admittedly be a mixed blessing it will be scientifically invaluable. As a radio and television relay station the Moon will also have a part to play; constant surveys of the Earth’s weather systems will be possible, and as a site for an astronomical observatory the Lunar Base will be in a class of its own.
From Earth, optical astronomers are constantly plagued by the turbulence and dirtiness of the atmosphere, and the trouble increases according to the size of the telescope used. The Palomar 200-inch reflector works well, and we may expect much from the new Russian 236-inch, though it is true that the Soviet authorities are being rather reticent about it. But if it were possible to build, say, a 400-inch, the atmosphere would prevent it from being used to capacity, and might easily prevent it from being useful at all. On the Moon there is no atmosphere; and the lesser gravity would make for easier construction, both of optical surfaces and mechanical parts. Our view of the universe would be more than doubled in range.
More important still is the fact that from Earth we can study only a very limited part of the total electromagnetic range. We have the optical window, and there is also a radio window, but most of the radiations from beyond the Earth are blocked out, which is why we have had to use rocket vehicles for X-ray astronomy and other studies. This hazard, too, will not apply to the Moon. The prospects for radio astronomy are equally good, because the construction of very sizable equipment will be made easier by the fact that it will weigh less. Neither will there be serious interference from artificial transmissions, ranging from commercial broadcasting stations to unsuppressed motor-cycle engines.
Looking further ahead, the radio astronomer’s ideal would be an observatory on the far side of the Moon, where shielding from Earth interference is complete. When this will be established must depend upon what happens during the next few decades, but with luck it should be in action before 2025. Contact with Earth, and with other Lunar Bases, will be maintained by using the communications satellites which will by then be orbiting the Moon. ―Moore 104–105
Sadly, none of this ever materialized, and there is still little prospect of a permanent human presence on the Moon being established within the next few decades. Still, there is plenty of time for another of Moore’s predictions to come true:
We must realize, too, that a man is not a robot. Neither is a woman, and this leads on to a problem which must already have been in the minds of long-term planners even though it has been too early to say much about it. Women can go into space; one (Valentina Tereshkova, now married to Cosmonaut Andriyan Nikolayev) has already done so. There is no reason why they should not go to the Moon, and I am quite sure that they will. A married man would not be willing to leave his wife and family for a prolonged period, and a bachelor would be equally unlikely to join a lunar colony if it meant sacrificing any idea of marriage. And when men and women are together in an isolated Base, one does not need to be an Einstein (or a Spock) to realize that children will be born. There are unknown medical problems here. Whether a baby born on the Moon will be able to adapt to Earth conditions is yet another unknown factor, and it would be frightening to learn that a “Moon child” would have to spend his whole life on his adopted world. If so, of course, there would be a moral obligation to keep the Lunar Base in being, whatever the cost, and eventually there would be an entirely new branch of homo sapiens, possibly differing from ourselves not only in mental outlook but also in physical appearance. This is not likely to happen before 2025, because evolution is a slow process, but it could have happened before 3025. ―Moore 106
But even a thousand years will surely not be long enough for one of Moore’s more imaginative predictions to come to pass:
In any case, our colonists must be able to lead lives which are as normal as possible, and this means that there must be ample provision for recreation; one cannot work all the time. There is no problem about what is termed “entertainment” (radio, television, etc.), and undoubtedly one of the early acts will be to establish a proper library. So far as exercise is concerned, there is no question but that regular activities will be essential―as, indeed, they are in space-stations of the Skylab or Salyut type; but it is tempting to go further, and decide what new sports will be worked out. As a cricketer, I can see endless possibilities. Not long ago I remember talking at a local cricket club dinner, and suggesting what could be done about limiting the size of the boundary, working out a new l.b.w. law, and bringing in regulations to help the luckless fast bowler whose run-up is bound to be seriously hampered! I look forward with interest to a Lunar Sportsman’s Manual which must inevitably be published sooner or later. ―Moore 106
Moore closes this chapter with some musings on the effect the establishment of international bases on the Moon may have on terrestrial affairs. For the most part, he takes a sanguine view of the political impact:
Governments and statesmen hold the purse-strings, and only they can rule whether or not the exploration of the Moon is to go on. Yet once it has started, it will be very difficult to stop, and collaboration will not be only desirable but also inevitable. Would a visitor from a Russian Lunar Base be unwelcome in the American headquarters, or vice versa? I hardly think so. Both are Earthmen.
This is bound to cause misgivings in both the White House and the Kremlin, to say nothing of Downing Street and in the office of whoever succeeds Chairman Mao. And yet, in my view, the politicians will be quite unable to put a stop to collaboration on the Moon―for the excellent reason that they will not be able to get there. Once such friendly collaboration has started, it will go on and will increase; and why should it not spread from the Moon to the Earth? ―Moore 107
The last word is given to the common folk:
One question which I am often asked is: “When will ordinary people―that is to say, non-technicians―be able to go to the Moon ?” It is not a question which can be answered as yet, because it is both logical and necessary that the first and many succeeding expeditions will be made up of people who have been specially trained and have been sent to carry out definite tasks. But by 2000 it is possible that not every lunar traveller will be a scientist; and as the journeys become easier and easier, the training requirements will be relaxed. I do not suggest that before 2000 it will be feasible for members of the public to go to the Moon for a holiday, and I doubt whether this will become possible much before 2100, but one never knows.
From my own point of view, speaking as an observer who has always been particularly interested in the Moon, I must express a feeling of regret. By 1995 I will have reached the age of seventy-two, and I fear that I will never achieve my ambition of presenting a “Sky at Night” programme from the Mare Imbrium. Yet there is a chance that I may survive for long enough to see such a programme put on to the television screen by someone else, and this is something which even I would not have dared to suggest in April 1957, when I presented the first programme in the series and when the Space Age had not even begun. ―Moore 108
Fifty years on, these ambitions still seem as far off as they were when Moore first expressed them.
And that’s a good a place to stop before the next stage of our journey.
