Yeah... it's no news that the current market has been painful, full of anxiety and fear, especially for investors who invested in the past year. Today has been especially eventful and the show is stolen by of course Terra( Luna ) and its "stable" coin.
For me specifically, I have been in the crypto market for almost 5 years so I don't really panic nor do I get extremely fearful. This of course doesn't mean that I don't have feelings about it. It is definitely painful to see my net worth disappear. I have lost almost 60K in the past 4 months, of course, it hurts. I don't sell anything though, what's the point? The time of selling is already over. There is a much higher chance that the market will bounce in the near future than keep crashing. If I have learned anything from the market during my time, the worst time is to sell into extreme fear. Can the market tank more from here? It absolutely can.
I think what upsets me the most is that the BTC is extremely correlated to US markets these days. It feels like BTC is a dog who is on a leash, the owner is the stock market. I sincerely hope that this almost 90% correlation will break at some point and BTC will resume its own price action.
Overall I have been quite a bull myself and I don't think that BTC is in a full-on -85% bear market. We didn't get a traditional blow-off top, why would we get a traditional -85% bear market that almost everybody expects now. Of course, this is no bull market too. I see it as a year-long sideways market at the moment.
So, all hope is on the US markets that they bounce and the USA is not going to tighten monetary policy heavily in the coming months. Rising stocks also mean BTC will also bounce and with BTC all the crypto markets.
Right now BTC is in a critical spot in my opinion, the 28.8K line must not break. This is the lower purple line you see on my chart.
BTC has fallen right into this purple area. If 28.8k breaks then firstly my sideways market thesis will break because it wipes out last summer's low. Secondly, from a purely technical standpoint, there is no more meaningful resistance below 28.8k so a free fall to 20k pretty much. Everybody counts on this support to hold, if it doesn't then very widespread panic will follow, therefore a quick fall to 20k in my opinion. If you think you see heavy losses now, you will see much more losses if 20k happens, probably near-60% across the board in altcoins, many of them will never recover again. So let's hope 28.8K holds and prevents us from feeling further insane pain, in addition to the pain we are already feeling. At least at the moment, we see some buying power on this support. Still, if US stocks tank then Techincal analysis doesn't mean much and stocks just drag down crypto markets.
Terra Luna yeah. Their "stable" coin failed, it should have been pegged to 1USD but fell to 0,30usd. That's absolutely devastating to people who believed in this project and there are so many millions of people who farmed those juicy APR-s on Terra. With their failure of UST, Terra itself also absolutely tanked to the bottom. going from 120USD per coin a month ago down to an absolutely disgusting 0.7USD per coin, it's a whopping -99.4% loss. Now it's up to $2 per coin again. I feel bad for everyone who was invested in Terra, fortunately I wasn't.
If you ask me, it's quite unlikely that Terra ever recovers again. History shows that if a project experiences a failure of this scale, it does not recover again. Also, people have lost their trust in this project for a good reason of course.
Hive HBD also is having troubles with its peg to 1USD but it's not new to us here, it regularly drops to 0.84 or something but always goes back to near $1. Let's hope it doesn't fail with the falling crypto market.
Overall, I believe in crypto and this technology. I believe this incredibly unpleasant time will end at some point like all the previous unpleasant times. History has shown that buying these crashes and times of high fear has paid off heavily in the end. I would buy If I had any free fiat but unfortunately I don't. I am planning to go traveling, already bought the flight tickets. The plan was to partially fund this with HIVE but now Hive loses its value so funding with hive becomes very unlikely unless it bounces nicely in a coming couple of months. Gotta collect this fiat now.
Stay strong people and dont leave crypto because situation is ugly!