Interesting idea regarding strategy

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The events:

  1. Russia gets guarantees of Chinese support for ANY war against NATO first. The idea is to make the conflict as big as possible
  2. Russia invades and takes over a small border village in a NATO neighbor with no more than 5 thousand people, then stops and takes a defensive position.
  3. Said country invokes Article 5.

What could happen:

Other NATO members will debate the weight of a World War for such a small incursion. Many, if not the majority might disagree with the application of Article 5, causing cracks in the organization. The whole point of a tiny incursion while having huge backup is to disrupt the alliance by causing explicit abandonment of protected nations due to unwillingness to fight over something so small for another nation. Just like the "Why die for Danzig?" French anti-war slogan.

Russia can even give back this tiny invaded land, causing even more rifts in the organization as there was absolutely no gain and huge losses in fighting Russia and it would explicitly show to it's members that their allies won't defend them.

That's why there should be no forgiveness towards ANY incursion as the small attack with huge consequences is meant to precisely cause the invaded organization to consider dismissing the losses because there would be HUGE losses and almost no gain on fighting that.


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Interesting idea regarding strategy | Ecency