The article argues that wars involving oil-producing nations are not driven only by ideology or geopolitics, but also by economics. It explains how Iran, despite sanctions and economic weakness, can financially benefit from prolonged high oil prices caused by conflict in West Asia. The author uses the idea of “calculus” and “algebra” metaphorically to describe how countries calculate gains and losses during war.
Iran’s economy is under pressure, with high inflation, fiscal deficits and sanctions, but it still possesses huge oil and gas reserves. Iran produces roughly 3.3 million barrels of oil per day and exports around 1.5 million barrels daily, mainly to China. The article estimates that if oil prices rise sharply from around $70 per barrel to $125–150 because of war, Iran could earn tens of billions of dollars in additional revenue over the next two years. Even after discounts and smuggling-related inefficiencies, the country could gain around $60–100 billion extra from oil, gas and minerals exports combined. For an economy with GDP around $375 billion, this becomes a major economic stimulus.
The article further explains that war may actually increase the strategic importance of oil-producing countries globally. Other oil-rich nations such as Russia, Saudi Arabia and even the US also benefit from elevated crude prices. The author argues that rising oil prices act like a wealth transfer from oil-importing countries to oil exporters. Iran could potentially use these extra revenues not only for defence spending and rebuilding, but also to stimulate its domestic economy.
Another key point is that Iran’s infrastructure is relatively inexpensive to rebuild because of its engineering approach and low-cost systems. Therefore, even if some oil facilities are damaged, the financial gains from sustained higher oil prices could outweigh the losses. The article suggests that from a purely economic perspective, a prolonged period of geopolitical tension may not necessarily hurt Iran as much as many assume.
The broader conclusion is that modern wars in oil-producing regions create a “virtuous cycle” for oil exporters and a negative cycle for oil-importing economies. The author warns that the rest of the world effectively subsidises these economies through higher energy prices. Overall, the article presents war not just as a military or political event, but as an economic equation where commodity prices, exports and strategic resources play a central role.
