Reaching $150 per barrel following a major military escalation involving the US, Israel, and Iran is a plausible yet conditional scenario. It largely depends on severe supply shocks such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, direct damage to vital oil infrastructure, and widespread market panic. Conversely, OPEC+ spare capacity and demand destruction from economic slowdowns could cap runaway prices, keeping restricted strikes at lower levels while reserving the $150 mark strictly for a prolonged, total war.
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From @omar401