After more than a year of no (crypto) trading at all, I seem to be back in business, as they say. I still actively followed a few financial crypto podcasts, though in listening-only mode. Obviously, I kept following Bitcoin, no question about that. But no single transaction for more than a year.
And then, a few weeks ago, I somehow got pulled back into the game!
In fact, because of a podcast. I listen to this weekly podcast with three Bitcoin enthusiasts and ecosystem specialists. A few hours per episode. News, market dynamics, deep research, X post analyses and opinions. Added to that, deep analysis around BTC. Very interesting!
The main financial guy in this podcast grounds himself in the cycle theory. That’s his foundation. But he also looks at all other dimensions, from chart parameters to sentiment and possibilities. Through him, I am drawn to the cycle theory as well, at least for Bitcoin. He never makes predictions in the sense of: "This or that is going to happen.", making him trustworthy after listening to him (them) for the last 5 years or so. He doesn’t give investment advice or anything like that. It’s more about likely scenarios. Sometimes he does actually state what he thinks. Mostly this is based on the cycle theory and major chart levels.
A few weeks ago, his thesis was still something like: "Yeah, we’re in a bear market until proven otherwise", while BTC broke out to 80k USD levels. Last week he shifted a little towards a 50/50 per cent chance to go higher, through the 83k USD levels or to dip to (much) lower levels before the resal bull run will start. The latter scenario leaves the cycle theory intact.
Anyway, I didn't wanted to jabber about BTC.
His brother is also on that podcast. He’s a bit less of the trader in the group. He is more the market research guy, keeping himself and the listeners updated on news, trends, and what X has to say. A few weeks ago he told us he was testing and trying the trenches. In the Robinhood chain ecosystem. His enthusiasm (entering with 1000 USD with tokens going -90%, others going 10x) was the trigger for yours truly to have a look in that corner of the crypto universe. When I did a few days later, I discovered this whole thing had only just started, with a lot of activity left and right. A LOT of activity! A bunch of services launched, many of them in their very early stages. Before I knew it, I was checking out a few utility tokens to give myself an entry.
And then, of course, it started.
Is everything they (the team behind the token) are saying actually correct? Are they truthful? Questions I did not ask myself for more than a year. Questions that are super difficult to answer. Great stories ... but but but ... I noticed that some utility tokens don’t even have a community; Not on X; Not on Telegram; Absolutely nothing. But still, some of them are doing nicely!
By now I’ve entered four tokens.
BTC shizzle today - interest rate hike spikes +/-
All super-low market cap, early launch. Therefore, super-high risk. It seems I like super high-risk adventures, at least in the crypto space. Or am I hoping I can make up for all my losses last BTC cycle? 😱
All four tokens have utility with stories that make sense. Most of them are super active on X. Some with in-depth long-form articles, others with numerous short-form posts about what they do, their plans, their next features etc. One even started periodical voice AMAs. All 'good' signs. Some effort is put into the thing. Out of these four one has none of that, just an X channel with a single short-form post daily. But still, I took a position with an average entry of 25k USD market cap. Super squared high risk! Trilling! Existing! 🎶
Whether they will actually make it? No idea.
I’ve seen this on other chains before. You get into something because it all seems good, logical, the team shows signs of trust. And then those tokens go nowhere; even with an active team, the token is not catching up.
But hey, nothing gained, and money lost 😆 A very likely outcome 😅
I am strengthened in the idea of being able to make some money this round in the trenches, by the renewed interest in altcoins across the board following the recent BTC upwards moves. Even the tiny tokens get a push, sometimes 2x, 5x and even 10x I have seen so far. A further push for my positive belief is the Robinhood brand. A big brand in the financial space. People using Robinhood for stock/crypto trading can easily come to the chain and its tokens. The focus of the Robinhood chain on RWA, tokenised stocks is super cool. Likely a magnet for more incoming gamblers and other high-risk investors.
Somebody infomred me the novelty of the chain is wearing off a little already. Last weekend I noticed that the Robinhood chain is indeed becoming a bit quieter. Noticeable through the transaction fees. Two weeks ago, at least a few tenths of a cent. Today, mostly just a few cents per swap. Perhaps indeed, the novelty and therefore attention is slowly fading away. Who knows? Though I still think more investors are coming to the Robinhood chain, playing casino in due time.
What I find particularly interesting is that all kinds of new utility tokens are starting to appear that claim to do token analysis based on AI, trading based on AI, research based on AI. Looks like AI must be in the utility and it seems to be in the utility. Websites look decent to top-notch. Documents also. Something that wasn't the case in my Solana trenches phase a year or two ago.
But all this can be deceptive!
The other day I came across a long-form article on X from one of the tokens I’m in. It explained the new scamming tactics in the crypto space. These days, not just launch a token with an X and a Telegram account added to it. With a crappy website. No documents. No whitepapers. They argue the new type of scam is to show the world the project is super professional, but still run away with as much money as possible in as short a time as possible. Makes sense somehow! I would LOL big time when the token team who published this article is planning for a big ass scam 😀 How humorous will that be? 😆
My use of AI.
With a few of my invested tokens, I’ve used AI to analyse everything from the launch through to all the spikes. Simply by throwing in the URL of the token ledger and a small prompt: "Analyse this token from its launch. Identify the dev wallet and its sybil ones. Also, categorise and analyse all other clusters. Provide estimated gains in USD for the team. Define what the remaining team holding is. Analyse and conclude the latest pump(s)"
What AI had to tell is quite interesting.
With all the projects I analysed in this way, a minimum of 50 per cent of the initial tokens was bought by the dev or its sybil wallets. Some even as high as 90%. After a few pump/dumps in all these projects, the dev and sybil wallets drained. But still, somehow the team (or some market maker) keeps pushing for the next spike. The tokens I’m in all continue to show a bit of colour on the charts. And I still see the team buying (and selling). I see higher lows most of the time, so they are painting the charts to look good.
Even when the dev/sybill wallets may be empty, the team still sits on an interesting amount of tokens, somewhere between 10 and 20 per cent. Usually locked for a year. This may mean the team is here to stay, to try their luck before calling it quits. I hope so at least 🙏
Darn funny this podcast and me being in the trenches again! What the F 😱
Honestly, the previous round played out pretty badly for me. One token went 100x but I didn't cash out. Circled the whole thing. Hoping for a 20x this round. I was super early at 1M market cap for this solid big project. 1M can become 10M market cap, right? A 10x will make me happy, for sure 🎉 ... a 100x, even happier 🥳 And then my Solana trench thingy, that was more like 99% down.
This time I crafted a more structured plan for the trenches. The utility must be something that the wider market is interested in. My guesstimate: financial and research services. All with AI elements attached. AI in incorporated in such a way the team bills aren't going exponentially. Tokens in the early launch phase, with the team still playing with the charts. Skimming the local tops. Getting an average entry below 100k USD market cap. Max investment between 100 and 500 USD. Slowly taking a position on the way down after a big drop already occurred. Time-consuming, very time-consuming to play this game. But hopefully a good way to play.
High risk, but high reward potential!
A breakout to 1M market cap is very possible. A 10x on a 100k entry. Sure, it can go to zero as well, since anything can happen, including the team running away and whatnot. But investments into nine tokens can falter when I can monetise a 10x on one token only. So the game is to play many of them. But I also know: "Do not play too many at the same time." Play 3 to 5 tokens max at any given time. Otherwise, keeping good oversight becomes impossible. No meme coins, absolutely none of them. Burned my fingers last cycle. Is not my cup of tea at all. I do not understand them. The craziest shit gets attention. The ones with well-created, quality content get dumped.
What about you?
Spending time in the trenches?
Wish me luck 💃🕺