This would have been a bit more powerful if I had posted this yesterday when I was thinking about it and Bitcoin hadn't breached the 10k level yet. I was even going to go so far as to predict that if we did see a unit bias pullback come into play that Bitcoin would eventually catapult right past 10k to a higher level.
That didn't happen. The market just gracefully ignored the 10k unit bias level as we continue our run up for the next two months. This makes a lot of sense because the price of Bitcoin has already been at 10k over a dozen times. It was even the support level for the Bakkt pump and dump before they opened their doors and the market crashed 20% due to a severe lack-luster grand opening.
A lot of the articles I've been reading are trying to speculate what the price of Bitcoin will be in May (the day of the halving). How do so many people forget what's already happened in the past? The day of the halving is not bullish. It is an extremely difficult time as the miners receive a jolt of half their income in an instant. There will be miner capitulation like there always is, but I doubt anyone will be thinking of that when Bitcoin is peaking at all time highs late March. The FOMO is real.
People used to get so excited when price action hit the 10k level. Now everyone is has a been-there done-that attitude about it. This also makes sense, because as soon as we get past the summer time Bitcoin will never dip below 5 digits ever again. The tides are constantly rising.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | April | May | June |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $6933 | $7467 | $8000 | $8533 | $9067 | $9600 |
| July | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $10133 | $10667 | $11200 | $11733 | $12267 | $12800 |
The upcoming financial crisis is a huge wild card when it comes to Bitcoin price. Bitcoin could bubble naturally based on its own 4 year halving cycle, but then it could bubble again in the face of what it was originally designed for: taking the power away from bad-actors who are leeching every possible scrap of value out of the Earth like the cancerous leeches they are.
In the face of hyperinflation Bitcoin looks really really good. Why keep your value in a failing system when Bitcoin can only crash like 85% from the peak? Not only that, the value of fiat currency never goes up. The value of Bitcoin doubles every year on average. The choice is going to be an easy one for a lot of people when faced with financial destitution. And the corporations that are interfacing with Bitcoin will be first in line to help those people make the transition as they skim a bit off the top (while they still can).
Monero is still doing great because of this atomic swap rumor, the value of which cannot be overstated. Once this technology is flushed out Monero will no longer even need to be listed on centralized exchanges and no government in the world will be able to regulate privacy on the blockchain.
The biggest centralized attack vector here to anonymity is the employer. If they say, "Yeah, I paid this person x amount on such an such date," the money is no longer anonymous. However, what if that money was left in Monero for 10 years and went x1000? Those gains would be totally anonymous.
When it really comes down to it these crypto city states popping up are the real solution to anonymity. Imagine paying rent and the landlord doesn't even know your name. Imagine never using a social security number. Imagine being able to boot up a new identity if you happen to get burned. These are real possibilities that crypto can provide. No longer will these features rest entirely in the hands of the police-state. Prison-industrial-complex: look out.
Even barring crypto city-states, tracking crypto is going to be much harder than other surveillance. When we look at centralized agencies like Facebook, Apple, Google, and Amazon, what do all these corporations have in common? Easy access to information.
Governments see that corporations have direct access to the information they want, so they strong-arm corporations to give them that information. However, privacy coins change all that. Now corporations have to spend a lot of overhead costs to attempt to track the money. Many corporations aren't going to bother with that kind of surveillance because privacy technology makes it unprofitable and unreliable.
This puts the burden of surveillance wholly on the shoulders of the government itself, which they are absolutely ill equipped to deal with due to the staggering inefficiencies of government. Imagine the IRS trying to tell Coinbase to tell them where all the atomically-swapped Bitcoin to Monero money is going and them getting laughed at.
The IRS and Secret Service are in huge trouble going forward. They think they're going to be able to tame this wild blockchain beast with centralized on/off ramps like Coinbase. They are sorely mistaken in the longrun. Very few of the big centralized corporations that start building on blockchain are even going to even attempt tracking that money. The harder they try, the more incentive it gives privacy coins to buckle down and invent new ways to obstruct tracking services. In the end, it's more profitable to just allow the transactions to remain anonymous. Profits rule the world, so we can count on this dynamic being hugely significant.
So where are the pullbacks? This is a big deal. When we hit 9.1k we pulled back to 8.2k. When we hit 9.5k we pulled back to 9.0. However, when we hit 9.8k there seemed to be zero resistance.
What I'm getting at here is that I still think the market is hugely bullish for another 2 months. We don't even have time to pullback. If we don't get a pullback after breaching 10k that is a hugely bullish sign that points to massive gains in March.
I think February is simply a precursor to March. However well the market does this month, it will do even better next month as we get closer and closer to maximum halving FOMO. This volcano is building pressure and will eventually explode. As we've all seen in the past, the biggest gains are made moments before the market crashes. I'll be hoping for 3 bursts up like last time (BAKKT) followed by massive volatility and an eventual crash post-halving (2-4 weeks).
I still think the price is Bitcoin is going to spike up to around the 20k-24k level in March and then crash down to 10k in June. Watching the pullbacks is a very important task. We'll have even less corrections in March than we do in February as demand gets kicked into high gear.
The interesting thing about the 10K crash prediction is that it will be the first time something interesting happened at 10k that wasn't just unit-bias. Unit-bias and actual support are going to converge at that level, likely creating quite a powerful springboard for the price to trampoline off of during the summer time.
