https://x.com/edict3d/status/1930734299193774209
Anything within the full-moon orange circle was a buy, and the dip down to $100k allowed me to increase my long substantially. I did not realize it was going to immediately bounce back, but it makes sense because everyone out there has been looking to buy a dip that never comes. In fact if we define a dip as 15% from the last peak we still have yet to dip for the last two months straight. You know what that means... only one more month to go!
I like to trade based on time targets rather than price targets. Price targets are okay if you trying to guess the bottom, but tops are basically impossible to guess because it's like a geyser shooting up into the sky; we have no idea how much power can propel the market skyward on the razor thin liquidity of an orderbook. Don't forget that most coins are not for sale; especially not at the current price.
I often refer to this as "rock bottom" vibes. When FTX collapsed it should have been a complete and utter disaster but we only dipped from $20k to $16k. That's because we were already at that rock bottom last line of defense; buyers of last resort moved in to scoop. Lucky for us I'm quite certain that Bitcoin has substantially increased the rock-bottom level to $58k. It's nice to know that "only" a 50% retracement gets us back to a place where we can accumulate sizeable risky positions without too much stress. Remember that real bear markets are 70%-80% retracements for Bitcoin and more like 90%-99% for everything else.
The rule of three has served me well. Macro rallies tend to last around three months. Also big sell the news events tend to peak three months before the event. Although we haven't had one of those in a while. Rather it's been more of a slow lumbering grind of institutional adoption in the face of global risk-off headwinds.
The last three weeks of a three month rally are often the "parabolic phase" of the cycle. If I'm right about this summer rally we are approaching this phase very soon. Three months from the bottom in April would seem to imply a blow-off top in July. The last three days of the three week cycle are usually the blow-off top in which the price is so volatile and insane nobody has any idea what's going on or where it will stop.
The three day rule is also good for things like exchange listings and token launches. I still remember when Hive got listed on... I was going to say Binance but I think it was Huobi. We went from like 13 cents to $1 in three days and right back down. Crazy pump and dump that. Three days is just enough time for the laggards to come in at the absolute worst time and provide exit liquidity during the infinite fomo flash-in-the-pan.
While it looked like that dip to $100k completed the pattern the recovery was so fast and the MA(25) is still right above the current spot price. So it's clearly still very much that bearish head-and-shoulders pattern which is kind of annoying. A full return on the right shoulder would bring us down around to the bottom of the circle at $97k. Just a little lower than that the MA(200) stands tall at $95k, and it's been impressive to watch the large moving average climb relentlessly with little deviation.
It also looks like the final golden cross may be coming to us in a matter of weeks. MA(100) crossing above MA(200) is a bit of a lagging indicator and may be more of a top signal if we get the blow-off top I'm looking for. Last time this cross happened was mid November and most of the parabolic move had just completed even though there were still several more weeks of grinding to the all time high at $110k after the election.
The MA(25) flatlining and price being right under it is definitely cause for concern in the immediate short term. Normally momentum craps out when this happens and we're in for some pain. My guess is that this time it's a bit of a psychout due to a couple of unique factors. It just doesn't make a lot of sense for the price to flounder too much longer given the timelines I anticipate. $100k toxicity is leaving the system. Everyone who wanted to sell this all time high has been given ample time to do so on two separate occasions.
Never forget that we waited FIVE+ YEARS for $100k. And because of that there's a lot of irrational emotional responses to the unit bias of this number. I'm 100% convinced that $1M Bitcoin will be nothing like $100k. In fact I guarantee that many people are going to model $1M off of $100k and get it completely wrong.
No one is expecting $1M this cycle. Not even close. That means at worst people will be expecting it next cycle which is 2029. An 10x from here in four years is a CAGR of +77% per year for four years... which Bitcoin is fully capable of without any kind of hyper irrational blow off top. That means BTC is essentially guaranteed to hit $1M next cycle... and thus the market will not be waiting a full extra cycle for $1M like it did with $100k. All the unit bias comparisons between 6-figures and 7-figures will be wrong due to this simple fact.
My guess is we have about 4-6 weeks of good times before we peak and start deflating into September. Remember that the best bet is to always buy the dip in September over any of the other moves that come before it. Of course to buy a dip you have to have money to buy the dip so if you're like me you have to sell something in order to have something. Hopefully it doesn't blow up in my face! Famous last words.
