Support near $58k is whittling away right before our very eyes. Normally we'd expect a quick bounce here at such a hardcore support level, but no such luck. Considering the timing of the cycle it would be prudent to brace ourselves for yet another lower low. Annoying!
I was expecting a third and final dip to this market, and was hoping the latest crash was just that, but it's simply too early to call the bottom, especially now with this grinding on hardcore support levels (a thing you never want to see). To be fair we are still basically only retesting previous lows. The first retest was kind of nice. "Double bottom is in" vibes. Now we are at a triple bottom and a grind with no bounce. Not good!
At this point even if number goes up a little it doesn't mean much. Like we could go up and tap the MA(25) at $63k and that would still be definitively bearish territory. There's also no way that the contentious soft fork happening in August is in any way bullish for Bitcoin. No matter what happens there a ton of old schoolers are going to be pissed and will rage sell the bottom no matter what the price is. It actually has been reminding me of those people who say they're going to move out of the country is such and such wins the presidency. Obviously 99% of the people who say things like this are absolutely full of shit, but also it's a lot easier to sell Bitcoin than it is to pack up and move out of the country. Still expecting fireworks in August... not the good kind the ones that flop over sideways and blow up in your face a little bit.
If we take a look to what happened four years ago it does offer some solace. There was a massive buying window last time around (and the time before that for that matter). Any price point between June and March was fine. Maybe you'd catch the exact bottom at $16k. Maybe you'd buy the top at $25k. Either way obviously all of those prices in between are pretty great in the grand scheme of things. The window to buy during this bear market aftermath could easily last 6 months to even a full year.
The one thing that gives me pause this time around is what happens in 2027. Normally I would be telling everyone that Bitcoin will outperform everything during this year because that's normally what happens during the cycle. However, we never got an alt market (except for garbage meme coins). Could Bitcoin going up in 2027 be enough to carry alts further than they would normally go because the market caps are so relatively low? Unclear, but seeing as the Bitcoin cycle keeps proving itself over and over again I'm going to tentatively conclude that it's going to outperform hard once again in 2027... which is annoying because wen alts dammit!
Four years ago Michael Saylor was an absolutely hated man with all the plebs praying for his demise. "He's going to get liquidated" they squealed. He didn't. He's not going to. He's survived 2 bear markets no problem. He's fine.
It's funny because many view Saylor as the villain right now because he's selling BTC or whatever. Everyone has the memory of a goldfish. He was way more loathed last cycle and the threat was much higher as well. Don't forget that there was no system collapse this time around. There was no FTX. There was no Terra/Luna. There was no 3AC. This entire bear market is just people selling into deeper liquidity pools that BTC has ever had before. Coinbase is still here. Blackrock is still here. MSTR is still here. And they'll be here for the next bear market as well apparently.
I still have to wonder how much thunder AI has taken from crypto and when that liquidity flow will reverse back. It's interesting because AI and crypto are complimentary technologies. We can use AI to develop crypto faster. AI agents can use crypto as a form of currency that doesn't require KYC or permission. The narratives for the next bull cycle in 2028 are likely going to be very intense. Don't be surprised if we make up for last cycle with this next one in a year or two.
Chart looks like hammered dog shit.
We still have to slog through 3 more months before it's safe to buy in.
Silver lining: next cycle is primed to be quite good, and could strike alts at any time.
