I watch Coinbase volume in real time, and normally when I see this kind of volatility, a correction downward is imminent. However, I'm buying back in with a limit order at $7636. I don't have much faith it will fall far.
I'm starting to think this is what we should tell anyone who asks us about crypto: Buy in for a tiny amount and try your hand at swing trading. New crypto users need to know just how bad they are at this over a sustained period of time. The market capitalizes on their ignorance and emotions at every turn. The traditional market is rigged this way and crypto is even worse because the volatility and resulting emotions are much stronger. Let's not forget the unregulated Wild West of it all.
I feel uniquely suited to be in the crypto market because of my experiences playing Texas Holdem poker. Who knows what it's like to work for 8 hours and lose $400? I do! It is the worst. It stresses me out so much that I come from an extremely conservative play style: weak/tight.
A weak tight player is someone who enters very few hands. He might have a VPIP (voluntary put in pot) of 10-15%. This means anyone who identifies a weak-tight player can put them on a hand much easier.
In addition to only playing premium hands, a weak/tight player will call with his marginal hands and raise with his premium hands, limiting their range even further.
For example, if you saw me raise from early position, you might know that I only do that with AK AQ AA KK QQ and JJ. Right off the bat, you have a really good idea about exactly what I have and can act accordingly.
The economy at large is surprisingly similar. Veterans of the market have a way of manipulating it to their advantage. Weak hands always get squeezed.
Trust me, by the time this bull run has ended (Dec 2020 or Dec 2021) people are going to have a lot of questions for you. Just think about how far ahead of the game you are compared to the average person. Remember the fear of that first time you transferred Bitcoin and you weren't totally sure if you had foolishly lost it or not? Most people have never experienced blockchain in it's raw form.
Remember the frustrations of the 1990's?
It could take days to download a movie.
I remember sometimes if your connection got broken the file wouldn't be saved and you'd have to start all over again.
There are still people out there who don't know how to use email.
Now take all those problems and add money to the mix. Now ignorance could cost you your livelihood. Many many more will be disillusioned before this is all over. In fact, it's really barely begun.
In the time it took me to write this,
Bitcoin crashed from $8088 to $7857.
