September is always a bit of a cursed month for financial markets but this year seems particularly sour. Bitcoiners are still doomsaying a minor tertiary protocol change. Terrorism charges have been dropped from the Luigi Mangione case (weird that they ever existed in the first place). Text messages keep leaking from alleged killer Tyler Robinson (💀 Charlie Kirk 💀) from the FBI... but they are very obviously AI generated conversations.
I feel like this Instagram short really spells it out like it is. These "domestic terrorism" events very much look like planned black-flags that are backed by the state. It's gotten so bad and ridiculous that the FBI compliments itself within their own fabricated evidence. Late stage imperialistic capitalism at it's finest.
https://x.com/Iwendtster/status/1968801078863912994
And by financial markets I of course mean Bitcoin and the 4-year cycle. We aren't seeing a ton of movement, which shouldn't be surprising. Sell-in-May-and-Go-Away. Q3 is always the worst quarter. So it's fortunate that we are somehow trading in a megaphone for the last week above all the moving averages (highest currently being the blue DMA 50)
About a week ago I opened up a short on BTC as a hedge because we got a big death-cross. A death-cross in September should have spelled temporary disaster for BTC but instead we just pumped into the cross (which is why I shorted). I'm now down like $100 on that position (up thousands on other bags). With random coins like AVAX being up 20% over the last week it almost feels like we are starting a stealth alt-season at the most unlikely time.
If we don't get a dump soon the MA(25) will cross back above the MA(100) and we'll be once again in fully bullish territory. Of course I won't be comfortable putting in a long until after September is over as a nuke can come at any time.
I honestly can't believe that the trendline I drew over 6 months ago is still so relevant that it acts as resistance within the current megaphone pattern. How crazy is that? We've hit the line I drew more than half a year ago 7 times in the last 7 daily candles. It's a pretty epic trendline and I'm curious to see how long it remains relevant.
The FED has started lowering rates which people seem to think is going to pump the market. Personally I've stopped caring what the FED does as it's become quite clear that the 4-year cycle trumps all the other waves and forces in the industry. Number goes up up up for 3 years then down 1 year. The more number goes up the more it's going to crash.
So I guess the real question is: are we already in the bubble right now or is this a baseline value? I'm pretty confident that even if a bear market started tomorrow the lowest we could possibly see is $58k. That's only a 50% loss, which obviously is a lot but also much milder than every other bear market we've ever seen.
As far as I'm concerned as long as we don't pump out of control there isn't a risk for major downside at the moment. Don't forget that a perfectly normal dip would be 30% which takes us to $80k. People would be losing their minds if that happened. Real pain never strikes until retail decides that pain is no longer coming.
The longest average I track is still slowly ascending. It's a marvel that it's even above $100k considering how annoyed people are with this market. Infinite greed is infinite and will never be satiated. As stated before I'd actually like to be trading between the averages instead of above them this month. Anything between $103k and $112k is extremely bullish territory for solidifying a solid launch pad during the bad month.
According to the internets the megaphone pattern we are in is the bullish variant and we might get a continuation above the trendline back into the channel. Certainly this is in the realm of possibility. Imagine the top of this cycle was something like $250k. We'd have to get a move on here sooner or later. Of course I need to remind everyone that most of the gains for the year happen in very short bursts of time. Don't be surprised if we pump to $250k in 1-3 weeks, assuming we do pump that high.
I was pretty convinced the alt-market would have started by now to be honest. Getting above $100k and staying there for a significant amount of time was "supposed to be" the catalyst, and once again it hasn't happened. Well we still do have Q4 to look forward to but if it doesn't perform things may look pretty bleak should a bear market kick in. Luckily assets that aren't bubbled tend to have far better supports, so we'll see how that goes (or hopefully not).
September is pretty boring on the financial side (as always) but the current geopolitical spectrum is an absolute shitshow of distractions. Perhaps I'll need to find some distractions of my own (like learning to code efficiently with an AI helper). We'll see.
