Volume has dropped from healthy levels to danger zone in less than 24 hours. We got spun up, and now we are winding down. All logic points to a retest of support at $37,500 or $35k worst case.
However, if we manage to maintain this level at low volume again, the supply shock will be confirmed yet again, and the price will spike up to the $45k level within a week. I give this a low probability of happening: maybe 25% chance at best, and more like 10% at worst.
Volume drops like this almost always signal the need to find support. Bulls are still in control but they aren't throwing money away. The market is being tested, and a sentiment shift has already happened and continues to wash over the market in real time. This is often confirmed on social media.
For day trading, this is a good time to sell 5%-10% of your BTC gambling stack and hope for the retest at $35k to buy back in. Low volume like this almost always signals a retest of support.
In the hyper-bullish event of confirming support at $40k on low volume (10%-25% chance), we will spike quickly up to $45k to test a far stronger resistance. A crash should likely happen tomorrow, maybe the next day. Three days in a row of not crashing here would be a very good sign.
In the longer term I expect if Bitcoin does quite well in August like I expect it to, many institutions will take quarterly gains in late September.
September has been notoriously bad for Bitcoin for quite some time now. At best we trade flat. Do we expect any different this time? I personally do not. You'll notice that the more volatility we get in August, the worse of a month September becomes. Food for thought: it's possible that a big spike in mid-late August could almost guarantee some kind of pullback come September. Guess until then we play it by ear.
Hive started a pump up to 55 cents, which was triggered once again by massive volume coming from the South Korean exchange Upbit. However, now just this one pairing on Binance has 136M Hive trading per 24 hours. The maximum number of Hive is around 400M so a lot of this is wash trading market making using bots.
Still, this is getting pretty intense. It looks like Hive could start to run up again with this newfound pump up to 48 cents.
