Ah, it's fun to watch Coinbase liquidity as the price begins to spike up. The market is quite tentative still; halting at all weak resistances along the way. This is just the beginning.
Litecoin is starting to outperform Bitcoin already.
That was quick, but also possibly a fluke at this point.
It's way too early to call it.
3% gain vs 6% gain? Don't be an idiot :D
In any case...
The $9000 support range has fully proven itself between the dates of October 25 and November 3. This is pretty much exactly what I was looking for. Assuming a winter bull run, I believe there is a very good chance Bitcoin returns to the 9k level no matter how high the volatility gets this winter.
However, it might not be smart to bank on 9k, because the potential dead-cat-bounce of winter combined with a halving pump and dump could raise these waters higher than 9k in the short term (Jan/Feb). We might have to wait all the way until Early June before it dips back to this level.
For example, if Bitcoin does what I expect it to do, which is spike to $30k in December, then is it really worth it to try to buy back in at 9k? 10k is a very good unit-bias level, and 11k is even safer. It might be incredibly overly greedy to wait for 9k considering the circumstances.
Essentially I'm afraid that this will happen again:
There was only a one day window in which traders could have guessed the bottom of the dead-cat bounce in early Feb 2018.
This is somewhat problematic, but that's crypto volatility for you. As long as I'm right about the intensity and timing of these liquidity waves coming in I should be sitting pretty well regardless of trying to perfectly time the bottom.
With a support of $9k, a spike to $30k seems very doable.
My outlandish possible $80k spike seems more and more unlikely.
And a conversation I had with my dad about the economy collapsing was insightful.
Being around so many libertarian homesteading anarchists conspiracy theorists really gives me a narrow view of the world sometimes. Long story short I'm starting to believe that the economy won't crash for another year and it will indeed be used as a political tool during the next election to institute "socialist" politics. Bernie Sanders here we come. lol.
Conclusion
Bitcoin has three major supports at the moment:
- $9000 (pretty good)
- $7500 (very good)
- $6000 (baseline bottom)
Considering the current economic climate I don't think we're actually going to see $7500 or $6000 ever again. Time will tell.