$BTC has once again broken the $52k barrier and threatens a triple-top breakout above the current resistance. This comes at the perfect time when looking at all my previous speculation from 17 days ago:
My expectation is that there will be only 3 weeks of real rallying in an upward direction, so we should plan for the next 2 weeks of being a struggle-bus that attempts to crack resistance around $50k unit bias.
I was definitely correct about the struggle-bus market but it looks like the real mental barrier was closer to $52k than the $50k unit bias. If the current rally really is starting now that means the three week timer starts today. Because the ETF doesn't get traded on weekends we lose the weekend... meaning three weeks from today is literally Friday March 15 (the ides of March) which... has been EXACTLY the plan this entire time.
If we were going to start rallying and peaking a month before the halving event that would start right about now, which it appears to be doing.
A month before halving is going to be around the Ides of March (how ominous). The new moon is on March 10th. On top of that Mercury will be in retrograde from April 1, 2024, to April 24, 2024, just in time to slap the halving event.
Yep so all my targets are unchanged. Still hoping for a wicked blow-off top next month. I still have no idea how much we could pump... but current targets are still something like a double top at $69k or laser-eyes unit-bias at $100k.
It's also worth noting that ETF demand has made trading the volatility here nearly impossible because every single dip is a soft landing that just gets bought up by the ETF resulting in numerous V-shaped recoveries. We haven't even come close to supply shock yet and it's unclear when this will actually occur. Soon™
It's also not totally clear just how well Bitcoin miners are hedged against their own impending doom come April. Did they sell enough Bitcoin and buy enough runway to make it past potentially unprofitable months? We've also never seen this kind of unrelenting pre-programmed buying pressure during a halving.
Is it possible that all these delusional maximalists are actually correct in thinking that the event will create an instant supply shock? I mean it's possible but I refuse to trade with the herd. The event quite simply has too much hype to actually live up to expectations in the short-term. Give it 1 year and all bets are off.
There's a reasonable expectation that even if we get a big dip it could easily bounce off the MA(25) which has already ascended to $49k due to the 2 weeks of sideways trading. Below that the MA(100) which is an exponentially better support sits at $44k. It's all looking stupidly bullish until we get that blow-off top and peak halving event FOMO. In fact I saw a testimonial on Twitter of a guy who said their Grandma bought FBTC because of the halving event... and when the guy asked her if she knew what the halving event was she said "no". Classic retail. It's exactly the kind of mentality that creates these tops in the first place.
If Bitcoin makes it back to the curve (doubling in value every year since $100 in 2013) then we'd have to spike all the way up to $117k in mid March, which would obviously be pretty insane but certainly not out of the realm of possibility. I guess I'll just keep throwing that out there given the 1% chance that it actually happens and I can say I-told-you-so in retrospect and look like a super smart and competent trader (which I am clearly not).
If Hive was trading at something very sad still like 35 cents in this scenario 1 Hive would be around 300 sats and I'd probably have to take the plunge and dump my 0.5 BTC back into my favorite bag. Pickup another 170k Hive.
Also known as extreme cope, sometimes I like to think about what would happen to Hive price if we really did embark on one of those moon rallies that so many other tokens have experienced. Acidyo was recently asking how much users would sell if Hive hit $10, but in the current environment $10 Hive isn't even a lot anymore. Rank #358 is a crazy place for this token to be. It's honestly disappointing to not buy Hive here because 600 sats is a very good price that sits on a low hanging support line. My expectation is that Hive will once again be 5000 sats during peak bull market 2025.
Even $100 Hive is not out of the question (this would be very bad for stability & user retention). Again I don't want Hive to spike that much as it would completely destabilize everything we've got going. The best result is always going to be a slow super-cycle in which number is always going slightly up. Unfortunately for us that's not how human psychology works. When we make a decision we tend to go all in and min/max our positions. It is what it is.
It looks like the thing might actually be happening. These blow-off top rallies tend to last about 3 weeks, with the third and final week creating more gains than the previous two combined. Eventually the volcano erupts with and outburst of FOMO, volume, and dumping. Don't take the wrong side of this trade if it happens. The Ides of March beckon.
