The market is in a very tenuous position right now. We need to get the F out of this consolidation phase over the next two weeks in my opinion. One month has been long enough.
Two days ago a lot of the alts crashed to good support levels. BNB was at $250. Monero at $200. Litecoin at $120. Hive and LEO around 20 cents. Uniswap at $15; so on and so forth.
Prepare to be dominated.
Considering the fear in the market it's hard to imagine any kind of significant alt-market in the short term even in the bullish scenario of Bitcoin going up. At best I think alts can keep up the pace with BTC at this level.
We absolutely need to break out of this wedge within the next two weeks in my opinion. If not I'm going to be preparing for $20k. We've had plenty of consolidation. It's time to bust out of here. $35k needs to flip to support for the bullish reversal pattern to complete. Again, I think we have two weeks to giterdone. Looks like it could even happen today, who knows.
In two weeks I really really want to be at the $45k resistance line getting rejected (or even better yet a breakout, but this is unexpected). I'm hoping for $45k down to $40k or even as low as $35k to test support before this FUD disappears and we start marking back up.
Yes, yes I am.
Again, I have no reason to think the mega-bubble has been called off because crypto Twitter is cowering in fear along with the rest of retail. We are still well above the doubling curve, which has been my anchor for making predictions. It's literally the only thing I've said over the years that seems to hold true. Hey, I'll take it. If it keeps proving itself: that's the only anchor I need to make a mint. It will come in quite useful going forward if the pattern holds.
Again, this means that no matter where Bitcoin is going at the end of the year, I think it's almost guaranteed to be around $50k at the end of 2022 (assuming a Q4 bull run for 2021).
The market rarely does what we assume it's going to do. That's because if a bunch of people assume a certain outcome the sharks come in to exploit that mindset, therefore it never comes to pass.
For example, what happens if Bitcoin is trading at $100k at the end of the year? Many are going to assume this is the top of a mega-bubble because unit-bias and laser eyes and all this rampant fear at $30k. However, $100k by EOY is only x3.9 higher than the doubling curve. That's not a mega-bubble, it's just a really big regular bubble.
I really think we can count on something fairly unexpected happening. The next run up may be a lot different than what we are used to. I still think Summer 2022 is on the table for a potential peak, even if BTC is trading at $100k by the end of the year. The pattern of BTC having a run every 18 months may continue holding true, and mid 2022 fits right into that pattern.
If we were to get a mega bubble in mid 2022, by my count BTC would get all the way up to $400k. How crazy would that be? Of course I'm hardly even rooting for that outcome, as the crushing bear market that follows these things turns new users into rage-quitting table-flippers. Call me crazy, but I'd rather have a non-volatile token that goes x2 every year that's constantly gaining new users over a super volatile asset that bubbles x10 randomly and wrecks all the noobs.
The crazy thing about the Bitcoin chart right now is that volatility is increasing. Even though we just crashed below $30k recently, we also had a false breakout up to $41k. This signals to me that manipulation is happening. A false breakout to the upside to trap bulls and then a false breakout to the downside to trap bears in rapid succession?
Call me crazy but it feels like the sharks are dominating this market and fleecing all the weak hands. The day traders are getting wrecked. And let's be honest: they deserve it. There's no reason to play with fire during a mega-bubble year. It is known.
Usually in bearish scenarios the volatility will decrease. This is what I've talked about time and time again in reference to my "volcano" pattern (blow off top). Volume and volatility will decrease steadily over time, until finally the ice breaks and the market crashes to the downside.
We are seeing the opposite right now. Volatility is increasing and their are false breakouts in both directions. The sharks are playing games and this whole bear market bluff is about to be revealed for what it is: hot air designed to get weak hands to sell the lows. Business as usual.
Of course my predictions have a terrible track record. It's a fun joke within the LEO community: simply bet against what 
Today is a full moon, and recent history has shown that full moons mark support for the last few months. I believe we are at the beginning of a major reversal after a month of consolidation, but the next two weeks are critical for this reality to materialize.
Again, worst case scenario is a classic head-and-shoulders pattern back to $20k. However, head-and-shoulders patterns complete themselves less than 55% of the time. Considering this is a mega bubble year, I'm willing to bet the odds are even less than 50/50 this time around. Again, a crash to $20k signals the absolute bottom, and the silver lining there is that I'll be fully comfortable going long and trading on debt again; something I haven't done for quite some time.
Either way, I think now is a good time to buy. Even if we don't break out to the upside over the next two weeks, I think there's a strong chance we could just dump and still turn a small profit even in the bearish scenario. The tea leaves command it. Make it so!
