Okay so I really need to start blogging once a day again because clearly I've fallen off the wagon a bit as of late. Problem is I usually blog about what's on my mind at the time and I've been doing a ton of day trading which gets pretty boring to talk about on a day to day basis... especially now because the market isn't particularly volatile and there isn't a lot of opportunity to capitalize.
That being said it looks like we are potentially very close to starting the next phase of whatever the hell is going on in the market right now. The downtrend is quickly approaching the most significant band of support drawn over a year ago (crazy) in November 2024. At this point I'm pretty confident support is going to win but obviously the four-year cycle reminds us that being confident of supports this late in the game can be a critical blunder.
What I do like seeing about the Bitcoin chart is the fact that price has been above the 25 day moving average for five days now and that average has completely flatlined in the wake of being down only since the 10/10 debacle. Could MA(25) support be enough to push through an already weak resistance line? Certainly possible considering we've already seen two higher lows getting locked in. Although the weird thing about that is we can crash back to the top of the support channel to $85k and that would just be an updated newer higher low. I'm thinking if that happens I'll start reaccumulating my long position and hope for the best.
The current downtrend we find ourselves in is so aggressive that it should easily get busted either this month or the next. By the time we get to the end of January is going to be at $72k which was the top of the $58k crab market in of 2024. I'd be pretty surprised if we dip any lower that that barring some kinds of crazy Black Swan event.
Quick reminder that the definition of a Black Swan is an event that nobody saw coming that tanks the market by draining out all the liquidity very quickly. I see a lot of pretenders on social media acting like a Black Swan is just an indicator that looks bad that everyone can see coming. If it can be seen coming it's not a Black Swan, and the economy is so rigged that often when the economy looks terrible due to this or that metric the market actually goes up because the rigged market just prints debt out of thin air to "fix" the problem.
To be honest the current market we find ourselves in is shockingly easy mode. Of course that doesn't apply to all of crypto just Bitcoin. Watching people try to call the top on a 10% dip from the top was a bit comical. And now that we're down 35% and those people are feeling vindicated and overconfident, the last thing they'll expect is just a normal bounce after a big (but totally standard) dip. Obviously this is what the bulls hope for at this point. Hopefully $81k was the bottom but really any price point above $72k very much feels like a mind-numbing crab market spanning over a year now.
Everything we've been seeing in the market lately has been perpetually awkward positioning. Crypto has always been defined by goliath boom and bust cycles every four years. How are we to expect a bust without the boom? Especially someone like me who's heavily invested in Hive... a token that currently hovers at all time lows. It's a bit hard to imagine we get rug-pulled at a support line that's never cracked even in the most dire of circumstances. This time is different, but how different is it really? I'm sure it will all make perfect sense in retrospect just like it always does.
The key moving average has finally leveled off at $90k.
The downtrend quickly approaches a multi-year support level.
The next phase of this market will begin within a month.
Cross your fingers for that much-needed uptrend.
