Honestly I can't believe this niche debate has raged on as long as it has. Maybe this is what it was like during the blocksize wars (as I joined crypto right at the tail end of that drama). I'm sure most people (even in crypto) don't even realize it's happening, but for whatever reason I follow a lot of Bitcoin maximalists on crypto twitter so I'm inundated with this stuff every single time I open the tab. I even saw a post today that accurately describes my conclusions on the matter.
https://x.com/vryfokkenou/status/2071087064045486576
I actually came to this conclusion well before BIP 110 even existed, and now these delusional cultists have an entire plan for starting a war that they are guaranteed to lose. It's actually kind of amazing to see the most zealous self-righteous Bitcoiners load up a gun and announce to the world they're going to shoot themselves in the foot months in advance. And at this point there's really no question: they are going to pull that trigger and nothing is going to stop it from happening.
I'm starting to wonder if I can leverage my knowledge of this situation to somehow turn a profit.
I'm thinking there's going to be an opportunity somewhere down the line.
I just have to catch it.
The zealots that want to activate BIP 110 as a "temporary" "soft" fork make this claim under the delusion that they are actually going to somehow be successful. They mathematically can not win. Almost none of the Bitcoin miners are going to support this fork for myriad reasons, but the overwhelming one is going to be reverse financial incentive. Blocks that have "spam" in them pay more money. Those are the blocks miners want to mine. This is economics 101.
It's not like the delusionally zealous cult at the heart of Bitcoin is going to just give up after their idiotic Bitcoin Improvement Proposal fails miserably. I've seen the culture. The ice-bath red-meat-only god-fearing libertarian isn't exactly a subtle group with deep nuance. These are people that believe that if what they are doing doesn't work then the Bitcoin network is going to be riddled with "shitcoins" and literal child porn (often abbreviated CSAM). Does it matter that the Bitcoin mainnet has been dirt cheap to use for a full two years now? Where is the spam? No, facts don't matter. Only feels matter, apparently.
The chance that this "soft fork" is going to turn into a contentious chain split is highly likely. Not because of any technical component in place today but rather by dissecting the community and culture around the current paradigm. If a predominantly right-wing cult has been brainwashed into believing that shitcoins are the devil and their actions are "protecting children" you can be damn sure they are going to suddenly un-brainwash themselves spontaneously out of nowhere. Nope, the only way that's going to happen is if something extreme happens like they lose all their money... which very well might happen in the wake of a chain split as heated as the one that's coming. Of course such a thing will potentially take years to play out in full.
Apparently the way that this works is that every block in a two-week difficulty adjustment cycle will either signal support for the upgrade or not signal. There are 2016 blocks per difficulty adjustment so how ever many blocks signal support out of the 2016 is how this percentage is determined.
This is a hugely controversial decision because previous upgrades to Bitcoin have required massive supermajorities such as 95% consensus. By lowering this barrier to 55% it basically guarantees an awkward chain split where 45% of the blocks are still counted as valid by the network.
Seeing as we are crawling very close to the bottom of the 4-year cycle bear market, August is honestly the perfect time to try and pull a ridiculous stunt like this. Just yet another excuse to push the price down a bit lower in one last wave of confusion and uncertainty. Of course it looks like this might all turn out to be huge nothing burger.
Despite the low 55% barrier designed to make activation easier, BIP-110 is currently heading toward a quiet defeat. Major mining pools have completely refused to signal for it, leaving the actual miner support sitting at a mere 0.31%—far short of the 55% required for early lock-in.
At first glance it appears that this thing simply cannot mathematically happen. But again I know this community and I can see what they are saying. They still think they are somehow winning this battle. They aren't going to quit, which means they are guaranteed to do something even dumber than they already have planned. Their only course of action will be a hardfork. It's too obvious, and very few people are pointing this out or even discussing it as a possibility.
https://x.com/venorusprime/status/2070572296461291677
The new narrative being barfed out by Knots supporters is something like, "You automatically agree with me unless you create your own soft fork to counter what we've done." These are legendary levels of delusion. I feel sorry for these guys. I don't know how or when they're going to lose their money but it almost feels locked in and unavoidable at this point.
Never a dull moment when it comes to consensus! You'd think Bitcoin ossification would have taken care of these problems by now, but somehow these random and loud minorities convince themselves they know best how to save Bitcoin from itself. Too bad Bitcoin doesn't need saving. It's doing just fine. Nothing has changed and most people have no idea any of this is going on.
When this soft fork inevitably fails I expect an absolute uproar of baby-rage. That will be the catalyst that allows a hardfork and subsequent airdrop to occur. Personally I may take that money and use it to mercilessly short the losing side. It's not going to be pretty no matter how it plays out.
