This recent spike in price action should be a surprise to no one that reads my blog. While the rest of the market seems to be deathly afraid of a crash to $7000 or even $6000, I've been calling it since June. The $7500 level proved itself to be a super solid support all the way back at the beginning of summer.
I expect resistance to be broken around Oct 25-28.
---@edicted (5 days ago) link
Why October 25?
I just figured we needed a least a full month to get away from the Bakkt dump.
Lo and behold!
Exactly one month after the end of the Bakkt dump we get a nice pump up to the last resistance line that stands in the way of a winter bull run. This resistance looks pretty strong on paper, but I know that it is extremely weak.
Our support lines are way too strong, just like they were on April 1 when we spiked up 25% ($4000 to $5000) in a single day on technicals alone.
This last resistance is only going to serve to build pressure at our support levels. The longer the resistance holds, the more pressure will be generated and price action will eventually explode through it. We probably only have a week to go, max.
Once that happens I expect the price will immediately pop back up to that mythical 10k unit bias level. I somewhat expect a crash down to $8000 before spiking to 10k, but you never know. Crashing to 8k would allow that extremely weak secondary resistance line to act as support, as predicted.
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | $200 | $400 | $800 | $1600 | $3200 | $6400 |
| Jan | Feb | Mar | April | May | June |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $3467 | $3733 | $4000 | $4267 | $4533 | $4800 |
| July | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $5067 | $5333 | $5600 | $5867 | $6133 | $6400 |
Bitcoin is doubling every year.
This is my Golden Rule, and I will continue to follow it until it fails me. According to this metric Bitcoin is worth around $5800 at the base level. From my point of view, Bitcoin literally can't dip below this level, and it would only reach this level given extreme volatility or really really bad news.
We have not had extreme volatility. Bitcoin spiking to 13.7k was only x2.5 the base level value. Real bubbles happen at 10x and above. In my opinion, Bitcoin would of had to spike to at least $48000 in the summer in order to justify a crash to the baseline.
Bitcoin is currently buffered at x1.4 above the baseline. Yesterday it was x1.25. This is nothing. In the face of economic crisis, halving hype, and this doubling metric, it can really only go up from here.
A lot of people are worrying about going from x1.4 to x1 instead of realizing it can easily go x5 this winter. The ATH could easily be broken in as little as three months. I wonder what kind of hype that would generate.
Winter is coming.
The winter bull runs of the past tend to be much more fierce than their summer counterparts. Coins like Steem have been stuck in the bear market for a long time. The market is thirsty and potentially fully bottomed out. Add to that an impending economic collapse that's being guided by the central banks to implode whenever they choose for it to happen.
Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer hard-money permissionless deflationary currency. It exists for this moment in history.
Did I mention the upcoming halving hype?
That's going to be a huge wave in the market.
The establishment is having a very hard time controlling Bitcoin. We are seeing a lot of pump/dump manipulation just like the rest of the legacy economy. However, these tactics fall very flat when trying to manipulate an asset that is increasing at exponential value. This has never happened before in the history of mankind.
They pump the price but then it still dumps to that same doubling value. Anyone who held still doubled their money. This is unheard of, and it's been happening since 2013, and before that it was even more profitable and volatile.
It can't be bought and it can't be shut down. Bitcoin is an abundance technology; The greatest one we've ever seen by a huge margin. Money rules the world, and Bitcoin is the abundance of money on a neutral platform that benefits everyone and is hard to manipulate on a long-term scale.
Conclusion
Well, here we are again. Will the central banks continue to prop up the economy until it no longer suits them? Will it be used as a political weapon during the next presidential election? If so, we already know what they'll be doing this year; continuing to buy all the bad debt created by this broken economy. They'll continue to buy the bonds and the stocks and the precious metals. How much of that money will find its way into crypto? Who knows. It wouldn't have to be much considering our pipsqueak marketcap.