We don't have a lot of in-market experience with halving events.
Bitcoin has had two, with the third coming mid May.
Completion: 85.42810067%
Reward drop ETA: Thu, 14 May 2020 13:28:37 GMT
We see that the first halving had much bigger gains (x101 vs x29),
but it also had a lot longer to ramp up (12 months vs 5 months).
This is one reason I think the next Bitcoin bubble will be the end of 2020.
That's seven months after the halving.
The first halving cut the reward by 25 BTC.
Then 12.5 BTC.
Coming up: 6.25 BTC.
Of course I think this is ridiculous. Bitcoin's inflation is created in exchange for pure energy and computing power. Creating Bitcoin inflation costs money. That downward selling pressure on the market will always exist, and it's getting cut in half soon. It's still a lot of liquidity, even at the 3rd halving.
The next halving might bring 100x gains,
or maybe 20x or 5x or 2x.
All of which are huge returns that no traditional investor would ever scoff at.
Theoretically, halving events provide less and less fundamental gain over time because the amount of inflation they are removing from the ecosystem get cut in half after every iteration. However, what happens in reality is often a much different story. There is no way to test these things. There are way too many variables in the market and dozens of fundamental gains that will all go into pumping the bags of Bitcoin. I'm going to continue to assume that Bitcoin will 2x each year on average until it proves otherwise.
