Fitting that 2021 would be the Chinese year of the "bull" (ox), as many of us are expecting these four-year cycles to play out in such a way that Q4 gives us a mega-bubble in Bitcoin, hitting the $200k-$400k range perhaps as soon as the end of the year. However, what happens after that?
It's safe to assume after any kind of mega-bubble that a dreaded year-long bear-market crypto winter will follow. Of course this bear market lasts a year for Bitcoin, but the rest of the cryptosphere isn't so lucky, resulting in a 2-year crypto winter for the alts.
Should these defined 4-year cycles continue on with this pattern, that leaves one year every four years where Bitcoin is in a bull market but it is stomping on the rest and outperforming for an entire year (x2 while everything else trades largely flat or simply less than x2).
2017: mega-bubble
2018: bear market
2019: year of the maximalist
2020: bull market
2021: mega-bubble
2022: bear market
2023: year of the maximalist
2024: bull market
2025: mega-bubble
The rabbit is the fourth animal in the Chinese zodiac. In the Chinese culture, the rabbit is known to be the luckiest out of all the twelve animals. It symbolizes mercy, elegance, and beauty. People who are born in the year of the rabbit are calm and peaceful.
The rabbit may be the luckiest of all 12 animals, but I get the feeling that only Bitcoin will be stabilized by then. As the top dog with the highest liquidity/security, that's just how these things tend to work out. Volatility breeds volatility.
So while Bitcoin may 10x to $300k, some of these other coins will do absolutely crazy things like 100x or even 1000x. Where does that many come from? It comes from the liquidity of all the new money that was just created in Bitcoin and all those new millionaires have no idea what to do with all those gains. People that have an abundance of cash tend to splash it all around while the times are good.
Imagine getting 1000x yield on a defi token. Can you imagine farming over $10,000 a day? I can't. For some of us, this very may well happen during a peak FOMO mega-bubble extravaganza.
The point here is that there's that year after the bear market that still stomps on everything but Bitcoin because they were thrown way more off balance during the mega-bubble itself. During this time we may have to bite the bullet and just become Bitcoin maximalists for a year if we want to see any kind of significant return on a crypto portfolio.
Should we get a mega-bubble at the end of this year (so close now), the writing will be on the wall. 2022 will see it all crash into the mountain, as these hype cycles are never sustainable. The sharks will jump in with their shorts and their futures market and what we just experienced over these last few months will seem like a cakewalk in comparison.
If these things really are going to happen once every four years, how we handle the madness and FOMO in the near future could quite possibly have a lasting effect on our entire life experience. This is not a time to be buying frivolous luxuries and burning a hole in one's wallet. It's a time to realize gains and hunker down for the long winter.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $12.8k | $25.6k | $51.2k | $102.4k | $204.8k | $409.6k |
A mega-bubble in 2025 implies 1 BTC = $4M
According to my trusty doubling curve, Bitcoin will begin 2023 at a fair-market value of ~$50k and end at ~$100k. If everything works out as planned, this is where I'll be stacking Bitcoin only and going long while the rest of the market struggles to stay afloat after a devastating reckoning.
Funny how I'm predicting a crash to $50k when we currently sit at $34k. Truly, the fears of bear market coming right around the corner are grossly exaggerated. That was just the pre-rally before the real-rally. Buckle up, Buttercup, it's gonna be a bumpy ride.
This is always good advice that especially builders should appreciate. Steemit Inc went bankrupt from sheer greed. That little turd had it right there in his hands and he threw it all away. It seems as though regret is all that's left after trying to gamble on such a wildly volatile and unpredictable market. All we can do is build out a stable runway to make sure we have enough to move forward.
Greed is becoming outdated. When we reach our financial goals we should be more apt to lower our risk rather than letting it ride on another dice roll. Rather than thinking about these markets in terms of days and weeks we should be zooming out to months and years.
What will you do? Will you bow to the almighty Bitcoin after the bear market is over? Or perhaps we'll all still have enough money by that time to not really care. None of these things may actually happen, but it's good to be prepared in case they do. Making decisions in real time with that much money on the line can lead to quite a disaster without a plan in place.
Personally my ultimate goal is to increase my influence on Hive and have enough passive income (even during the bad times) to live on without having to rely on a paycheck from a corporate agency. Becoming a whale here has never been so possible for me, but if I have to hunker down with Bitcoin for a year to get there, so be it. I'm playing the long game.
