It's been no secret that a lot of my posts have been hyper-bullish speculation as of late, and every day that goes by seems to confirm that I'm correct in this assessment. However, that doesn't make it any less stressful. Yesterday was one of the most stressful trading days of all time for me personally.
Some comedian set up a sell-wall at the degenerate target of $69420. The target was hit and the community cheered in victory, but what happened next was nothing short of amazing.
The dump that we just got signals to me that we have just entered phase 2. These are six hour candles so if it plays out a similar way we'll be trading sideways for another two days. Struggle-bussing between the $65k-$69k channel while the bears get it all out of their system. They are gonna get wrecked... again.
So imagine my surprise when we flash crashed immediately to $65k.
These are the 5-minute candles from yesterday's trading session.
My first day trade opportunity occurred at lunch time when the price has just crashed from ATH to $64k. Seeing as my analysis points to the idea that we should be crabwalking in the $65k-$69k range for 2 days... I naturally opened an x20 long here. In fact all the gambles I've done recently have been x20 I really like this amount of leverage for the patterns I'm dealing with in the current market. If the price pumps 5% I'm up 100% and if the price crashes 5% the position gets liquidated and I try again somewhere else.
In any case we can see that I only left this long position open for 3 candles (15 minutes). The second we got a red candle I closed the position. Something was wrong. We should have more buying pressure here because the market is oversold after victory-dumping BTC at all time highs. So I exited the position up $150 (0.002 BTC) and decided to wait for my next move.
As I patently waited for the market to crash more because bears and bulls were giving away free money due to the ATH celebration... I ended up picking up another bid at $64k. I figured this could be marking a double bottom and we would aggressively recover from here. As we can see I panicked on the first dip because I was expecting there to be a lot of momentum in an upward direction. I flashed closed the long at a loss of $30... and boy was I happy that I did.
Why did I decide to set up an x20 limit order at $62k? Because that's exactly where I wanted to long during the weekend when I was hoping we would crash when the ETF money printer got turned off. We didn't crash and just started going up and up and up and up from $62k. I figured... hey... if we get back to $62k... well, I wanted to open a long there anyway and if the market is stupid enough to give me another opportunity... I'm gonna go for it. However, when my limit order triggered I was worried because it hit hard and fast and I wasn't sure if I had caught the falling knife or not. A 5% dip from $62k is $59k, so if we hit $59k I get liquidated! Not good!
Now that my $62k long has hit and the market is still batshit insane I decide to set up a double-or-nothing x20 long at $60k just in case some crazy bullshit happens. Guess what? Some crazy bullshit happened. Boy Howdy. Holy God.
I watched in HORROR as the price wicked down to $59.5k within seconds. A notification flashed on my screen. What happened? OMFG. Did I just get liquidated? I checked my position and it still had 0.2 BTC borrowed and 0.01 collateral... so it seems I had not been liquidated... and also my $60k limit order procced. WTF just happened? I went to check my email for clarification.
The margin rate of your BTC_USD PERPETUAL Futures Long isolated margin positions has reached 75%. To avoid forced liquidation, please add margin or reduce position promptly. When the margin rate reaches 100%, forced liquidation will occur.
In that moment I had been margin called, but also something else crazy happened as well. Not only did I get an email saying my position was in danger, but in that same exact moment my $60k limit order procced and got consolidated into the previous position. I'm actually such a novice at leverage trading that I didn't realize this would happen with x20 isolated margin... I was thinking I was going to have 2 completely separate positions. This was not the case.
On a very real level it's possible that this consolidation added to the collateral of the first position, pushed my $62k x20 play down to an average buy of $61k, which in turn lowered the liquidation level to $58k for both positions instead of $59k for one and $57k for the other. I can tell you right now as the person that experienced this... it was the most EPIC example of beginner's luck in the history of day trading.
Within 15 minutes my position had gone from absolutely wrecked and about to be liquidated to up 50% (+$300). I couldn't believe it. It was the most unreal thing ever. HOW!?!
After getting so astronomically lucky once again with my day trades... I decided I wanted to take a little bit off the table. I struggled very hard with this decision because of my original assessment: we are supposed to be crab walking in the $65k-$69 channel for a couple days. Deleveraging below $65k was a weak move, but I was so tilted at this point I just wanted to gain some peace of mind, so I reduced my total loan from 0.2 BTC to 0.15 BTC just so I wouldn't be so stressed out... then I went to bed and hoped I'd be right in the morning.
I awoke this morning and jokingly asked my girlfriend to check the price of BTC for me. She did and told me it was $67k... no fucking way. Wut? I went from like +$200 when I went to bed to +$880 when I woke up. This position is still open, and I'm currently up +$730... I want to close it but I also can't close it until Friday because of my analysis.
This is my assessment. We trade sideways until we get a nice pump around something like 20%. I think we can make it to about $80k by end of week. Hopefully this happens and I can completely deleverage this long and maybe even go a little short as we head into phase 3. I've been absolutely murdering these day trades and even if we flash-crashed to $58k from here and I got liquidated I'd still be up money from my previous trades. I'm freerolling at this point. Feels nice.
@edicted... Why are you day-trading all of a sudden?Because during these periods of hyper-bullishness the market is more predictable than any other time. The fact that I am hitting all these day trades perfectly should tell you that I'm onto something. I only day-trade bullish flags and hyper-bullish volcanos. This is a volcano, and the eruption is coming. Take note.
Enjoy it while it lasts, because there is no way in hell that the halving event is actually going to be bullish. It might spark an alt-market but Bitcoin itself will be volatile and angry for quite a while. It's actually a bit unclear how long that will last but eruptions from previous volcanos have lasted 3 months.
On this timeline that would mean we'd expect a dip 3 months from mid March, also known as mid-June. I'm thinking this summer could be quite disappointing for many but I also believe that we can pull out another bullish run by the end of the year with this type of momentum (which is rare but the current climate is uncharacteristically good). Make no mistake that I'll be paying very close attention as this all develops and ready to refactor my positioning at any time.
While writing this the 5-minute candles have just painted another bullish 'W'... wow... just wow. Okay then. Off to the races.
For those that were paying attention the bulls and bears both celebrated the all time highs by dumping BTC on the market and flash-crashing the price 13% in short order. I was magically able to pickup on this in real time and make a pretty penny day-trading this celebration of stupidity. Thanks for the free money bitches. Appreciate you.
Supply shock is coming.
Pressure is still building.
Phase 3 is coming.
Steel yourselves.
