I will keep it as simple as possible. Usually when you keep it simple it is most likely the best way to go. This is definitely the case for technical analysis.
During the amazing bull run/hype in 2017 , I saw a lot of technical analists getting good results on their prediction. People were calling for higher prices and higher prices came. We saw predictions that told us prices will go x20 or x30 and it mostly happened.
But then the inevitable came true. The bubble bursted and we went down. A lot. The beginning of a bear market.
There is a big difference bewteen TA in a bull market and in a bear market. I think most of you already know what I'm saying.
Most , if not all , technical analists are getting it wrong if you look at the long term. Short term there are some winners but long term is something entirely different. I'm not seeing any prediction right. I'm not here to judge. I like TA. But I like to keep it simple.
I'm do not use patterns or Elliot wave. The biggest problem facing TA is that everyone is seeing different patterns. Some see inverted head and shoulders , others do not. Some see bear flags , some see bull flags and others see falling wedges.
Same with Elliot wave. I think it is a very interesting way to analyze a graph but it is almost impossible to get it right in a bear market. There are so many possiblities and you need to count right. The only way to be sure you have the right count is when it already happend and go back in the past. But we are not interested in the past. What will happen in the future? The answer is simple. No one knows.
Bitcoin could go to 2000 but it can also go beyond 20 000. Maybe both.
So what do we know?
I like using trendlines and volume. Two simple techniques everyone can do. And they are reliable. Anyone can draw trendlines and anyone can look at volume changes. So let's take a look.
These last months volume has been dropping. Last year we saw volumes of 10 billion and more. Now we need to be happy with 3. No surprise there. Buyers are leaving. Sellers are in control. If volume would rise consistently together with higher prices , that would be a very good sign we are heading to a reversal.
Now let's take a look at the trend.
Drawing trendlines is easy. Just connect the highs and the lows with a line. Now you can see the trend!
The trend is bearish. Very bearish. Why? It's going down. For months now. This could continue some while.
But the most important thing to look at if you see this graph , are the green circles.
Those are the highs. Some people are calling the bottom for months now. The end of the bear market. But if you see lower highs every single month , you are deep in a bear market!
So when will this bear market end?
This will show you the way.
This could be one of the dozen ways of ending the bear market.
It actually does not matter how Bitcoin rises. There is only one way to describe the beginning of a reversal and a bull market. Higher highs! If you see 3 consecutive higher highs that is a very important sign we are going bull! Combine that with rising volume and you will successfully identify the trend!