We are going to go for 7 Likes on this post because this isn't what anyone really wants to hear. Tons of big YouTubers have been saying this is the start of the Bull market but in my mind this has been a Bull Trap and one of the bigger ones we have seen in general.
I have been deep in the trenches on FOMO and have seen the money sloshing around mainly on Solana, Robinhood Chain, a little bit of BASE, some BNB, and a lack luster launch of Arc that had Circle behind it and lacked liquidity and energy and most trenchers were there for a couple hours and peaced out. Myself included. All this was a telling sign and while there was slight rotation back to Robinhood chain most of the action has been on Solana and we finally did get a price pop from $100 to $120 for Solana.
I will post some of my hits but the trenches have been brutal out there because 99% of everything is a scam and you are then trying to be first out the door and not last out the door before 90% round trips.
A lot of times getting out was tough with a lot of slip and then you might lose some on the next several trades so what I have noticed for the last couple weeks was I couldn't sleep and I was tweaking out and would sleep for 40 minutes and then wake up and have to check my phone again.
I was able to turn $450 into over $7,000 and still moving funds around and isolating gains but I more moved to higher ground because I sensed the weakness in the market. A lot of things on https://www.stonkfun.xyz/ burned off really hard. There are still a couple movers right now but you end up getting PTSD with all the round trips.
By heading to high ground I invested in majors and infrastructure type stuff that facilitates the trenches. Stuff like Jupiter, Meteora, Radium, and Uniswap. With the pullbacks it is still up some but I'm starting to become uneasy about all of it as well.
Why Do I Think This is a Bull Trap?
The whole time this has felt like an isolated private party in a basement nightclub in Vegas on a cold windy Tuesday. Go back up to the strip and a lot of assets haven't gotten much off their bear market floor pricing. It's great for stuff to come up 20% but after 95% retracements on some of it that only provides so much pain relief.
Even for Solana it has pumped some but it isn't like we are flying up to $250 or $390 or something and if all this was cranking up over the last couple of months I would expect more.
Notice on the CBBI across 9 Metrics every Bull Market we got to Dark Red and for every Bear Market We got to Dark Green? This time we haven't gotten to Dark Green and the score in the lowest price only went to a score of 25 but in the other 3 Bear Markets we went to scores of 3. That is a significant difference.
https://colintalkscrypto.com/cbbi/
CoinMarketCap Greed Index
Notice how everytime we get in that top green band it retraces pretty hard and often will got clear to the red and that was during the for real bull market runup post halving. The chart doesn't go further back from that. Also look at the volumes at the bottom of that picture. They are way lower than what we saw late 2024 and through 2025. That is all of crypto. Not just Bitcoin.
1064 days up. 364 days down. Repeat.
This pattern that has repeated itself would put us at a bottom on October 5th/6th. Which is a week away. Seems like a violent retracement if that happened.
When else did we see something like that? Well just on 10/10/25 we had that huge liquidation event a few days after our $126K Bitcoin top and that effectively canceled ALT SZN last year.
"The October 10, 2025 crypto crash, known as 10/10, force-closed roughly $19 billion in leveraged positions within 24 hours and liquidated more than 1.6 million trading accounts. Both records still stand."
So what makes you think we won't have another record breaker where they just blow everyone's back out?
Oversaturation
There was a time when it was a bigger deal to launch a new asset and obviously it became easier with the smart contract platforms and then the launch pads so the number really went parabolic in 2024 and there are around 100,000 new tokens being puked out into the market so we are at an alarming 62.27 Million assets.
Most of these being launched don't really add value to the Bitcoin order books. You could say Solana and various other assets could benefit but as time has went on you have replicas of replicas being added by exchanges like Coinbase. Stuff like $WIF (Dogwifhat) getting listed on Kraken and Coinbase and having direct USD pairings so people don't have to buy Bitcoin or some other asset to get to it.
ETF and Strategy Buys
The ETF inflows have been up a bit but over the last month it has been -$103.7 Million but overall it kind of keeps making a SIN wave where it will be up and then go negative and then go positive. Seems like we have been up and then this thing could go very negative as funds flow out of it.
Strategy Buys don't really hit the order books but could choke supply. They own around 4% of all Bitcoin and he was saying that Bitcoin could go to $5,000 before he would get liquidated. Now all that might be figured off current valuations and if the whole overall market dumps things evaporate real quick.
I just don't like that fact that Strategy doesn't seem to have revenue coming in from selling a service or a developing a product. There whole plan seems to be selling preferred stock and taking out additional debt to buy more Bitcoin and he might feel the squeeze real bad if this market turns against him like I think it can.
What Are The Positives In The Market?
The thing is there are some really solid things happening in the market that I'm excited about. Getting on FOMO and getting in the trenches really got me reengaged and looking at a lot of stuff on X and other places. I like that various other assets are getting tokenized and while it might be a wrapped version it can at least temporarily give exposure to the price action. Monero and ZCash are on Solana now. There is counter party risk and I wouldn't put your whole bag of those assets in some FOMO Wallet or Phantom wallet and be holding a Solana token version. Smaller amounts sure. Main bags NOOOO.
Monero is soon to be added to Thorchain swaps which is HUGE!!! Very Bullish and that should essentially allow someone to really move in and out of these native assets with no bridging pretty effectively. KYC is a scam and in my opinion someone should utilize the centralized exchanges very minimally and have like accounts at 10 of them. Spread your risk out and just use them for smaller percentages and to keep the flow in and out.
I found some pretty cool communities in the meme scene that I think have major growth potential over the next couple years. $NEET and $SPX6900 to name a few. $NEETS chart is looking solid and I have a decent little position and waiting for it to all play out.
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/notinemploymenteducationtraining/
I just think crypto guys can identify with it big time because they have been disenfranchised by the work environments. Just HR Karens and companies packed out with guys on H1B Visas. If you saw the supposed August employment numbers with 98% of the hiring was women. Guys are opting out.
All that being said if my analysis is correct a lot of this stuff will hit rough waters as well in major liquidation events or implosions.
Global Tensions
We are in World War III right now and for a lot of people around the globe they are feeling like their work is going towards all the inflation and all the BS. Gas prices, food prices, insurance prices.
All of this isn't an equation for a bull market to really be popping off. Where is the funding coming from? Leverage? The volumes don't seem to be there. It is a lot of the same money sloshing around and I can tell you this. Most people's businesses and most of these farms are in serious trouble.
The crops are starting to be harvested and the farmers are going to be paying record high Diesel prices. It will be like throwing good money after bad and I can tell you right now they are SCREWED. Truckers are saying they are going to not drive on October 1st as a protest. We will see but people are really fed up with Trump and all his BS.
These elevated prices are really going to crush consumers. They will barely be able to afford a bit of Goyslop to fill their bellies.
The money isn't flying around like it was in 2021 and also we could have some psyops coming up like major power outages to see how we handle it. Everything is to weaken us and take our gains.
What I'm Doing
Here is my advice to anyone else. You could really trip yourself out trying to trade in and out. If you are in the Set it and forget it you aren't going to lose in the long run just stacking BTC, Monero, DOGE, Solana, BNB ...... etc. Even if we take a big tumble if you are just trading spot and not doing the leverage or perps trades you will be fine. Over the long term these strong plays are up and to the right.
75% from last years peak for BTC is basically $31K. I'm figuring we could go move around $38K but let's say you are playing conservative and think we will have a little pullback at this point and go sub $70K again or $60K retest of closer to the lows we were at before it could be an opportunity to level up but might not be worth it if you aren't crazy active.
I'm letting some of my spot long trades sort of play out and then I'm going to sell out of various things even though I like the projects and I'm long term bullish.
Then I'm betting against Bitcoin and a couple other alts in the Perps markets and Prediction markets.
I feel like we just have a couple more days in the sun and then things are going to get spooky. 👻
I have already set up some trip wires in the Perps markets.
Sign up with my link and we both get $50 to trade on Polymarket. https://polymarket.us/join/brianphobos
If you think Bitcoin is going way up you can bet that way as well.
https://kalshi.com/r/ad8eaaba-e850-4024-ae7e-c13ceca0118e
Get $25 from that link to do perps on Kalshi. You can bet any way you would like.
I'm going to be setting up more in the next couple of days and also setting up some Perp trades on a couple other platforms where I can go 100X Short.
I really don't like to short crypto but even if we have a bit of a cool off some stuff should have quite a bit of price retracement.
Do you think $USELESS can sustain this $234 Million market cap with $3.5M of daily volume? This is going to be a potential target for me to short. It certainly could not work out in my favor but some of these pumps will burn off a bit in my opinion.
Conclusion
Overall I just feel the energy leaving the market. People can't really fill up their gas tanks and pay for scammy insurance so it's hard to expect the masses to suddenly show up after we didn't really have a bang out ALT SZN in 2025 when we were suppose to.
Prepare for more potential pain. No shame in just putting on the blinders and just focus on stacking through any chop.
I trenched out and went over 15X in about a month and a half. Now I'm going to take some gangster hacks betting on the downside because I think World War III gas and energy prices will really put the pressure on people. Tough to imagine everyone showing back up to the party. There is a bit of money bouncing between Robinhood chain and Solana and attention is getting thin. I can feel it.
Do you guys think that I'm right and Bitcoin is in for a pretty big death drop after predicting the collapse of FTX 11 Days before it happened in 2022, betting big on $DOGE prior to 2020 / 2021? Or do you think guys like Tommy Lee are right thinking that Ethereum is going to $250,000?