Bitcoin has been losing market share to altcoins at an accelerating rate as we see more and more pumps not only among smaller altcoins, but also among the largest ones. These pumps are often driven by four different catalysts:
The announcement of partnerships. Often it doesn't matter how large the company is they are partnering with, how relevant it is or the scale of the partnership (exploratory or full colloboration).
Not a new catalyst, but being added to another exchange is becoming an even larger pump catalyst now that the altcoin market has become so frothy. Even speculation about being added to an exchange (e.g: Ripple to Coinbase) is enough to send a cryptocurrency soaring
Hard forks or airdrops - any event that encourages one to hold a cryptocurrency at a certain block. NXT is a perfect recent example of this
Coin burns or reduction of overall supply (artifical or real) - Ripple locked some of their supply in escrow. Despite this being an artificial decline in supply, it has (in part) driven some of this rally as it has fueled confidence and is the #1 viewed post on Ripple's site for 2017. Tron's coin burning is another perfect example.
These four catalysts drive astronomical returns even when it doesn't make sense. However, all good things come to an end and I suspect that soon, altcoins will flee to Bitcoin. Note that almost all altcoins must be bought with Bitcoin - the opposite is true too (altcoins are sold for Bitcoin). This exodus of altcoins to Bitcoin will occur, in my opinion, after one of three potential catalysts:
A hard fork announcement for Bitcoin with a ton of buzz. Doesn't have to be Bitcoin Cash or Segwit 2x (the original) in terms of size - even something like Bitcoin Gold can cause a frenzy with enough hype and buzz.
The Lightning network becomes increasingly deployed. All of a sudden the narrative will become "once altcoins only advantage against Bitcoin, speed, becomes compromised, what do they have? Nothing - Brand is everything." That's my speculation on how the crypto investor community will think - and I suspect people will think this EVEN IF Lightning doesn't really solve Bitcoin's problems. Note that crypto investors have already illustrated how flippant they are - just back in October, everyone was talking about how altcoins were going to die and Bitcoin was taking back its dominance. Now Bitcoin is going to die because it is slow and expensive. Just wait - the narrative will change, as it always does.
More financial instruments are made surrounding Bitcoin or more institutional hype comes. While an ETF still seems a long way off, we may see a more mainstream product for Bitcoin options than LedgerX. Note that the financial instrument is not the important part - the important part is the idea of institutional investors jumping in. In other words, any headlines that suggest this could easily send Bitcoin soaring - How many times have you heard "get in before Wall Street does!"?
When any of these catalysts occur, Bitcoin will become the predominant cryptocurrency that capital flows to (both from altcoins and from outside the crypto market). The cryptocurrency market as a whole is overvalued right now, but I suspect either way (the bubble further inflates or it pops), Bitcoin will overperform altcoins.
What are your thoughts on the declining dominance figure? I know there will be a wide variety of passionate opinions, so feel free to let me know.
