Bitcoin has had a rough past couple of months and we've come full cycle now - Last November I made a video around $6k where Bitcoin wouldn't stop rising and now here we are in June with Bitcoin near $6k and it won't stop falling. Why does this happen? In short, the snowball effect or momentum.
One lesson passed onto me was that while technology always evolved, human nature does not. When we look at the price of Bitcoin (or any other cryptocurrency), we are peering into the general perception of Bitcoin. We are not looking at a graph based on fundamentals or how the technology has improved (e.g: Bitcoin reached its peak in December / January, when transaction fees averaged $40). With that in mind, what has changed?
Well for one, the catalysts that drove Bitcoin to $20k (e.g: hard fork excitement, futures, Wall Street adoption) have become "old" or nonexistent. When some hedge fund manager says he's bullish on Bitcoin, it's no longer the type of event that gets everyone riled up. When a smaller hard fork occurs, no one cares anymore. And the millionth time that the SEC suggests they don't want to regulate Bitcoin as a security, it probably won't spark as much interest either.
As price has headed down, people start to think more and more that Bitcoin was a fad. Keep in mind that many people only invested because they saw how many people saw Bitcoin as the "next big thing" or the "biggest innovation since the internet." But now all of a sudden, criticisms from big names like Warren Buffett start to feel like they are a lot more true. Even my YouTube channel has called Bitcoin a bubble since close to inception and now that claim seems "scarier" because price action has validated the idea more.
But doubt is not only coming from within the cryptocurrency industry. Stocks have had a difficult time gaining traction in 2018 since the top on January 26th and since then, we've seen sideways trading action. The past week has been difficult due to trade tensions with the EU due to Trump's isolationalist economic policies. Investors are starting to go more risk-off which has sent bond yields downward as investors flock to safe havens DESPITE the fact that central banks are trying to move away from low interest rates. This risk-off environment naturally goes against one of the riskiest asset classes out there, cryptocurrencies.
If you look at the viewership of websites dedicated to cryptocurrencies (which you can see on Similarweb.com), you'll find that most websites are only at a fraction of where they were before (Coindesk is estimated to be getting 25% of its peak monthly visitors). The same is true of all other types of media - Back at the peak, it was a "requirement" to report on Bitcoin daily. Now it's reported on far less frequently as the interest is no longer there.
For people looking from the outside, Bitcoin really does seem like it was nothing but a fad. And now that there is less bandwagoning, people are more open to saying that perhaps Bitcoin isn't as useful as cryptocurrency enthusiasts made it seem back in the months leading up to December. That makes attracting new money difficult now that Bitcoin has burned many people and the "word of mouth" isn't as kind as it used to be.
Will Bitcoin make a comeback? Well at the very least, it will almost certainly have a period of astronomical growth again - Cycles like this are common in markets governed by perception. It's impossible to say if it'll go back to $20k or when the cycle shift will be, which is part of why I've shifted to a buy & hold strategy as opposed to trading like I was back in November and December. And yes, I still think Bitcoin is a bubble.
A quick update on where I've been: No where special - Just tired of the cryptocurrency news cycle. I have never absorbed as much content on a daily basis as I did for cryptocurrencies and I only did it for the YouTube channel - it served almost no benefit to my investing (and one could argue it was detrimental as sometimes you get distracted by day to day stuff and miss the big picture). Eventually you get tired of hearing the SEC say the same thing about Bitcoin for the millionth time and everyone getting excited, or hearing what so & so said about Bitcoin or seeing people defend it / attack it blindly. Anyway, I doubt I'll go back to the multiple videos a week, but I am thinking about at least uploading once a week on Fridays perhaps. Hope you've all been well while I've been absent! Also check out my Twitter if you really want to stay up to date with me: www.twitter.com/Truth_Investor.
