Quite amazing to think we are still weeks away from the halving and we have already seen a Bitcoin ATH. Everyone was saying it was due to the ETF's and new buying power from the institutions but apparently those assumptions are way off the mark.
The data tells us this is not the case and it is the "dumb money" retail investor that has created the price to rise. There will be some institutions buying, but the majority of the Bitcoin ETF sales are being done by the normal people.
BlackRock's IBIT spot Bitcoin ETF which is the largest has an average buy in of 326 shares which equates to $13K. Currently this spot ETF is hitting 250 000 trades daily which is where the average of $13K comes from. This BlackRock IBIT Bitcoin Spot ETF has already received $14 billion and if you look a the purchases this does not sound like the big money institutions with the majority it seems have not even started yet. Bitcoin hitting plus $70K without institutional money pouring in is quite incredible and we start to get an idea of what is going to happen over the coming 12 months.
Cathy Wood the CEO of Ark Invest mentioned this stating that the big boys who she called the wire houses have not approved Bitcoin ETF's on their platforms. The likes of Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, UBS and Merrill Lynch when they start to buy we will know about it quite quickly.
These are the reasons why the likes of Standard Chartered predict a $150K by year end and Ark Investments expect a plus $1 million Bitcoin by 2030. The reason why the institutions are on hold right now is they were not ready and will take around 6 months to do their due diligence before they even consider starting to buy. This puts a timeline of around June/ July before we start to see any impact of big money and that is presuming they are ready by then.
Everyone and their dog will want some crypto within the next 12 months because there is going to be some serious FOMO that will take place. The good news is we know when Bitcoin starts to rise is everything else will follow suit. What would a $150k or $200K Bitcoin do to the entire crypto space? What impact would an Ethereum spot ETF do because the numbers we are talking are mind boggling.
This is what we have all been waiting for to happen because we knew at some point institutional money had to flow into crypto. The numbers we have seen up till now have been relatively small in comparison to other assets like gold. Gild has a market cap of $14 trillion and Crypto around 6 x less at $2.4 trillion. There is so much room for growth and you would not bet against crypto flipping Gold in he future. This may not happen this cycle but the chances are very high in the next cycle for this to happen. Crypto is definitely like a modern day gold rush and this is still yet to play out.
