I made a post last year with some predictions around Steem for 2020 (Link Original Post). Now about 1 year later it's time to have a look back how they played out...
I don't think anyone could have seen the scenario with Justin Sun Buying Steemit coming and the entire saga that followed where the Hive fork became a thing. Crypto is moving so fast that this all feels like it happened ages ago while it has been less than a year. These were the main things I predicted...
1. Steemmonsters will continue to Shine
Steemmontsters left the Steem Blockchain moving to Hive making a definitive name change to Splinterlands. I played daily for an entire year grinding out the daily quests mostly enjoying the game and everything around it until the point they introduced the Collection Power Score & League Leaderboard which in my view turned it all into a money milking scheme (for both Devs & Players) taking all the fun out of it. (I wrote a post on the pay2win Balance Issues yesterday)
Most focus from the team has been on the economical side of the game making sure both cards & DEC values are holding up in which they have succeeded. I did manage to grow my own card collection from 492$ to 1744$ over the course of the year not even counting a lot of the earned DEC and Blogging rewards and I'm still comfortable I am able to sell them around those values at the moment if I wanted to. In that regard, Splinterlands has continued to Shine.
Looking at the active daily users, despite being the top crypto game on the market and a near doubling of active users, it is still nowhere in regard to numbers that even mildly successful games in the 'real gaming wolds' produce. In that regard, Splinterlands kind of failed.
2. Steem will drop outside of the top 100
Steem was ranked 98 at the end of last year and dropped all the way to 134 outside of the top 100.
Even when adding both the Steem & Hive (rank 160) marketcap it still wouldn't have a place inside of the top 100 at the moment. Looking at the coins in circulation 355336447 went to 395095826 which is an increase of 11.2%
3. Price Steem start 2021: ~0.22$
The price started at 0.131$ and went up to 0.157$ which is an increase of about +20% not counting the Hive airdrop which right now is sitting at 0.116$ or the Blurt Airdrop which is 0.029$ according to coinmarketcap
The Price of Steem & Hive combined currently comes at 0.273$ which isn't too far off to the 0.22$ I had predicted.
4. Most Tribe Tokens continue to suffer.
Most Tribe tokens moved to hive-enigne now running on the Hive Blockchain. Congrats to those that were into Leo seeing the growth and development along with the 10x in price from LEO happen which has been the only real tribe to thrive for as far as I can tell. PAL / SPORTS / AFIT / ... all saw quite a decrease in price while DEC is designed to be somewhat stable. I haven't followed all tribes but I can say that overall the ones that went down less than I anticipated while the one that went up blew everything away!
| Tribe | End 2019 | End 2020 | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| PAL | 0.009825$ | 0.00494$ | -49.7% |
| SPORTS | 0.0000455$ | 0.0000381$ | -16.2% |
| LEO | 0.02489$ | 0.283$ | +1137% |
| AFIT | 0.0003275$ | 0.0002088$ | -36.2% |
| DEC | 0.00071133$ | 0.00081$ | +14.1% |
That's it for looking back at what I predicted last year. Depending on the angle of looking at it, it was quite accurate or miles away from everything that has happened. I might do another one of these posts predicting what will happen with Hive, Steem, Splinterlands, Tribe Tokens, ... in 2021
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