Each Year, I try to make some predictions around Splinterlands While I look back at how previous predictions played out. So today, I'm breaking down what I think the 2025 Conclave Arcana Era will do for the Game...
2024 Review
One of the main issues that is holding Splinterlands back is the declining collection values while more cards were printed in 2024 which makes it close to impossible for anyone to invest money in the game without being guaranteed to lose money.
In the last 2 years, value went from 75 Million to 50 Million (-33%), to 35 Million (30%) which is in reality a whole lot more since so many more cards got printed. So anyone who has been holding cards with the idea that over time they should become more valuable (including myself) absolutely got crushed hard as during that time BTC went from 16k to 42k, to now 95k.
While from 2023 to 2024, part of the value from cards was transferred into SPS which increased from 0.023$ to 0.035$ (+56%), in 2024 the price of SPS went to 0.00795$ (-78%)
SPS 2024 Chart
SPS 2025 Chart
Last Year Predictions
My predictions of what was going to happen in 2024 can be found here.
Prediction #1: Fun Gameplay will be more vital in 2024 to get adoptionNothing was done to make Splinterlands more fun and there was negative adoption as more players continued to leave compared to new ones coming it. It's been more of the same which is a constant printing of new cards as there are still whales who buy them but Splintrlands simply isn't interesting for new players.
Prediction #2: Chaos Legion Card Prices will go up Rebellion Card Prices will stay stable and eventually start decreasing in price.
End 2023
End 2024
For now I was wrong on this as Chaos Legion dropped even more in price while the low sales in Rebellion which makes it a rare set along with the artificial measures to keep up the prices (before they get dumped into wild) so far worked.
Prediction #3: Somewhere between 2M-4M packs will get sold out of 10M
| End 2023 | End 2024 |
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I also highly overestimated this one as 81% of the packs ended up burned and less than 1 million have been opened by now.
Prediction #4: SPS will Reach 0.15$+ in 2024This prediction was made with the idea that the 2024 Bitcoin Bull market which happened also create another crazy altcoin season which did not really happen. Still another -80% decrease ins SPS price is pretty brutal but at the same time it could be positive for the long run as more SPS will need to get burned in order for players to buy the next set.
Prediction #5: There will be a Brigde to Solana to open the Splinterlands Ecosystem to more players
2025 Predictions
Splinterlands In General: Honestly, it's hard to be very optimistic about Spliterlands even though I still see the crazy potential this game has. I do believe the main focus still is on the wrong things instead of fixing the obvious fundamental problems Splinterlands faces. (Link How To Fix Survival Mode). At the same time, the SPS price is really low right now wile there still is a loyal player base of the game an whales who are willing to still buy everything that is thrown at them. This also seems to be declining as hallway the overpowered auction card, prices are really starting to go down.
I do think that once again, fun gameplay will be key and it needs to be improved if the game wants to get wider adoption. Right now it's extreme pay2win and you either have to be a full time modern grinder or run your bot in Wild which barely earns anything at higher levels.
Prediction: Fun Gameplay will be more vital in 2025 to get adoption.
Prediction: Bot Armies will exploit Survival Mode.
Splinterlands has been getting quite some HBD from the DHF which they plan to use to market the game after the 'new player experience' is done. However, I see this turning into a huge deception and waste of funds as Splinterlands still isn't attractive to new players. The entire process of having learn a complicated ecosystem while everything is overly expensive (cards + SPS) especially since only really modern will be accessible. There is always a chance for there to be another crazy bull altcoin market where people just have too much money and are willing to throw it as something that is fun like a game.
Prediction: Advertising Efforts will be a Waste of Money.
So a ton of money from the DAO was voted to be paid to cryptomancer to develop land while it's quite clear that land has been killing the game for quite some time and is not something that will save it as no new player will be interested in it. I think the right way to go would have been to give land a simple instant use case (like players stake max level cards on it which get used in a new game mode and which pay passive returns based on the entry fees that come in from the new game mode)
Prediction: Few Players Will Really care About Land.
The Conclave Arcana set is about to be released in a couple of months while Chaos Legion will be dumped into Wild Mode. This will possibly increase the gap between old and new cards as I don't see the Survival Mode do much. This gap kills the incentive to buy new cards as any player with half a brain realises that their investment will get crushed the moment the cards rotate into Wild. With so many players now in Wild relying on Chaos Legion, I do expect another selloff (or burn of values get too low) both of cards and of SPS. This because Wild will be even more hard to play profitably. The SPS earned in modern will be higher but I fear SPS price will suffer from that also because the inflation will be increased. So for as far as Conclave Arcana goes in terms of Sales, I see them Equal or lower compared to Rebellion.
Prediction: Conclave Arcana Will Do Equally Low Sales as Rebellion
The one thing Where Splinterlands has really been whining these past years and which also increased this year are the blogging rewards. These mainly rely on Hive while the HDF proposal made it so that more Hive was staked by Splinterlands which increased the blogging Payouts. The quality requirements of post that fully qualify also has gone up quite a bit with the battle challenge which were replaced by the Community Engagement Challenge. This makes it so that blogging about the game potentially earns a multiple even its only 1 weekly post compared to an entire season in Wild with a max level card collection and a ton of SPS held.
I'm quite fortunate that I really enjoy writing about the game and this blogging really is one of the things that keeps me in the ecosystem as without it, I might have thrown the towel already.
Prediction: Blogging about Splinterlands By Far Remains the Best Earning Potential
Finally, SPS which currently is the main token as Cards continue to be neglected. At below 0.01$ now and a most likely a bull market in 2025 for crypto it's bound to also go up at least a bit. However, after last year, I've grown way more cautious in my prediction. Conclave Arcana will likely burn quite Some DEC which should get that back to peg and the "Flywheel" going. So either Splinterlands goes belly up and it crashes all the way down (which I don't see happening) or it needs to go up at some point. I would say a range between 0.03$ & 0.04$ is where it should at least get to at one point in 2025.
Prediction: SPS will reach at least 0.03$-0.04$
Conclusion
I really have a hard time to be bullish on Splinterlands as I still see way too many fundamental Flaws that prevent new players actually from coming in. This happens to be the thing that Splinterlands needs to most. I don't rule out a scenario where the negative spirit turns into a positive one with things going crazy again like in 2021 but I see it as unlikely. My general predictions are in the line that Splinterlands will vastly underperform the general crypto market.
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