As I write this, I'm around the 18 hour mark for time spent awake today, so I'll try to keep this from being too long or rambley.
So here's my prediction- some time, in the next decade or two, television will die out.
I should probably elaborate. I don't think TV-style programming will stop, or that the object we call a television will no longer be produced. Instead, I think that people will start leaning more towards computers and internet content, and less towards TV stations and the like.
The main reason I say this- computers are becoming more and more accessible. Compared to just a few decades ago, when home computers were quite rare, it's becoming uncommon (in first-world western society) for a household not to have at least one computer (especially if you include things like phones or tablets). TVs, on the other hand, are largely the same as in the past. They're thinner, and I would imagine they're less expensive- though I'm not certain of this- but honestly, they don't really offer much that couldn't be easily adapted to computers. The function of a TV could very easily be replaced by, say, Netflix.
There are other reasons too. There's a trope about millennials being too poor to buy things like diamonds- I personally think this will apply to other things too. If TVs are made near-obsolete by an app on a computer, I believe that a lot of people will notice this and decide that they can live without a TV. Another big problem- televisions are, for the most part, not on demand. Around two weeks ago, we missed an episode of the Simpsons as it aired (well, more accurately, a game of golf was extended into the time of airing, and so our recording was just golf). We then searched for somewhere to watch the episode, but there were no future air times, and the on-demand we have doesn't have the Simpsons. With a program like Netflix, this wouldn't have to be an issue, since any episode could be streamed at any arbitrary time (assuming it's already released).
Now, there is one last reason I haven't addressed. The average show is 22 minutes long, yet takes 30 minutes to watch. If you do the math, that means you average about 16 minutes of advertising per hour. That might not sound that bad, but put it this way- an hour is 60 minutes; 16 is just over a quarter of that. Over 25% of time watching TV is spent watching ads. YouTube, even without an adblocker, is nowhere near that. 10 minute videos will have maybe 30 seconds of ads- this can vary based on whether or not the viewer skips them, though. Honestly, I can't see this flood of advertising as being a good model in the future. I don't know how exactly it will work out- maybe lower budget programming, or an alternative method of income (something like Patreon, perhaps?)
I'm not gonna pretend I know much about business models, or societal trends, or anything like that. What I will say is that I've found myself drifting away from the TV in favour of online programming, and I can definitely see reasons why other people may follow the same path.
That said, if I end up being right about this, let it be known that I'm a modern-day Nostradamus.
Anyways, that's gonna be it for today- hopefully you've enjoyed this post! If you've got any thoughts on the topic, feel free to share them in the replies!
